USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[tazzycorner]

Just jumped in. Paper loss 10% in just a few hours. Fun!

nice one!
now $9

taking profit or keeping?

 

[yslvlys]

Hmm... Seems like another red day. Will continue to slowly buy in as usual. I am still more than 70% cash.

 

[d9lives]

nice one!
now $9

taking profit or keeping?

Sold cc @9.50 for 0.30
I don't care if it got called away.
Still >20% in hours.
Too bad, I only bought 2,000 shares. No money.

 

[Kunkka]

Lunr 0dte any play or too late

 

[yslvlys]

Added GDDY and more ZETA. I am done buying for the night lol

 

[d9lives]

Added GDDY and more ZETA. I am done buying for the night lol

What's your thesis on zeta?
I am a bagholder @ 22.50
It was all gucci until hinderburg....
Should have sold it when it was 3x.xx. too greedy ..

 

[limster]

McDonald's (MCD) shares hit an intraday record high Friday, continuing their unsteady climb since an E. coli outbreak last October.

https://www.investopedia.com/mcdonalds-stock-hits-all-time-high-friday-11693036

Someone in this forum likes to post about consumer recession since last year.

I am a contrarian so I have loaded up NKE, MCD, NVO (after eating McDonalds all those obese Americans will go doctor get Ozempic, and then go back to eating McDonalds). The e.coli outbreak was a good entry point.

I have been buying more UA on valuation grounds though I still prefer Nike to UA stuff. (on the other hand I prefer UA to Hoka/On)

Apart from capital gain, MCD and NKE are also giving me dividends which I don't actually want because of the 30% WHT.

 

[dereth]

https://www.investopedia.com/mcdonalds-stock-hits-all-time-high-friday-11693036

Someone in this forum likes to post about consumer recession since last year.

I am a contrarian so I have loaded up NKE, MCD, NVO (after eating McDonalds all those obese Americans will go doctor get Ozempic, and then go back to eating McDonalds). The e.coli outbreak was a good entry point.

I have been buying more UA on valuation grounds though I still prefer Nike to UA stuff. (on the other hand I prefer UA to Hoka/On)

Apart from capital gain, MCD and NKE are also giving me dividends which I don't actually want because of the 30% WHT.

Someone? Who?

 

[DevilPlate]

https://www.investopedia.com/mcdonalds-stock-hits-all-time-high-friday-11693036

Someone in this forum likes to post about consumer recession since last year.

I am a contrarian so I have loaded up NKE, MCD, NVO (after eating McDonalds all those obese Americans will go doctor get Ozempic, and then go back to eating McDonalds). The e.coli outbreak was a good entry point.

I have been buying more UA on valuation grounds though I still prefer Nike to UA stuff. (on the other hand I prefer UA to Hoka/On)

Apart from capital gain, MCD and NKE are also giving me dividends which I don't actually want because of the 30% WHT.

Salah lah….u are the mainstream
Bears are the contrarian

 

[Shion]

Nasdaq joins exchanges seeking to offer round-the-clock trading​

https://www.straitstimes.com/busine...nges-seeking-to-offer-round-the-clock-trading

 

[yslvlys]

What's your thesis on zeta?
I am a bagholder @ 22.50
It was all gucci until hinderburg....
Should have sold it when it was 3x.xx. too greedy ..

Lol no real thesis, I just look at their last 3 years and 3 quarters of sales and cash flow from operations. They were increasing consecutively showing good historical and recent trend. The market cap is less than 10 times sales so I think valuation is ok. I think consecutive quarters and years of increasing positive cash flow from operations is extremely hard to achieve. I don't really look at profits as I see how my company always try to maintain a low positive profit margin by shifting costs here and there (legally with help from tax consultant) so as to pay an optimal (low) rate of tax. But they cannot manipulate the cash flow accounts. I have been shortlisting stocks this way to invest since mid last year, so far seems to be ok, though the bear market brings everything down.

 

[Jirachi]

Hmm... Seems like another red day. Will continue to slowly buy in as usual. I am still more than 70% cash.

Powell did calm the market after 1:30am SGT on Saturday.

 

[stanlawj]

28min 56sec: Crunch time for small and mid-size banks by July 2025 (if the anti-Trump Fed continues to drag their feet about cutting rates).



Fed's staff love Democrats.

Deflation coming!!

New US Tariffs. Looks like US price inflation will be higher this year.



Article can be found at yahoo finance

I only pay attention to the Chief Economist at Bloomberg Economics, Anna Wong,
Christophe Barraud is pro-Kamala Harris, anti-Trump.

 

[spoon69]

Extreme Fear, its time to load the boat. NOt fun to buy while seeing profits evaporating but essential

 

[elvintay07]

Nasdaq joins exchanges seeking to offer round-the-clock trading​

https://www.straitstimes.com/busine...nges-seeking-to-offer-round-the-clock-trading

All cannot wait to hammer nails into SGX’s coffin

 

[stanlawj]

Recession:
Detox:

If you think this negative GDP (=Consumption + Investment + Government Spending + Net Exports) is not negative, that means GDP is a fake number that doesn't measure what it should.
My interpretation: positive GDP prints in the past have been overstated for very long time, and this is a sudden lump-sum adjustment (due to physical gold imports) that needs to be made. You can print dollars and derivatives, but you can't print physical gold.

 

[mooseolly]

Extreme Fear, its time to load the boat. NOt fun to buy while seeing profits evaporating but essential

I always tell my friends, if you see me crying because my portfolio drop like 20% it is time for them to enter like back in 2022. Now still cannot enter because I am still green YTD. Hope S&p 500 can drop another 10%. I am patiently waiting to utilise my MMF.

 

[DevilPlate]

Recession:
Detox:

If you think this negative GDP (=Consumption + Investment + Government Spending + Net Exports) is not negative, that means GDP is a fake number that doesn't measure what it should.
My interpretation: positive GDP prints in the past have been overstated for very long time, and this is a sudden lump-sum adjustment (due to physical gold imports) that needs to be made. You can print dollars and derivatives, but you can't print physical gold.

Trump and his team only have 2-4years to detox
with such a short timespan, hard to succeed without crashing the market.

Their main priority is to drive down 10y yield now by creating fear in the stock market so that institutions sell stocks and buy long term treasuries?

They have like 5T debts to refinance + another 1-2T new debts this fiscal year.
Who is going to buy all? Fed goto print and makan part of it? USD gona devalue and/or 10y yield higher for longer?

 

[DevilPlate]

History lesson

However this time is different lah

 

[stanlawj]

Trump and his team only have 2-4years to detox
with such a short timespan, hard to succeed without crashing the market.

Their main priority is to drive down 10y yield now by creating fear in the stock market so that institutions sell stocks and buy long term treasuries?

They have like 5T debts to refinance + another 1-2T new debts this fiscal year.
Who is going to buy all? Fed goto print and makan part of it? USD gona devalue and/or 10y yield higher for longer?

Most of the fund managers and bond traders (basically the top 10% wealth owners) are anti-Trump as well.
Essentially Trump 2.0 will be a battle between the US govt and the elite class, disguised as tariffs on China, Mexico, Canada, etc.

My bet is Trump will win. The longer the anti-Trump faction (Fed, bond traders etc) continue to bet on Trumpflation, increasing fiscal deficits (hence short UST bonds), etc... the worse it gets.
The 3-month and 6-month UST yields are still not showing any signs that the bond traders believe DOGE will succeed.

So how the stock market reacted so far.. currently it is just a rotation from growth and momentum to value.