USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[elvintay07]

Global economy is far bigger than the US economy, no country can afford to fight trade war with the whole world.

Countries like China, Canada, European Unions also have high tariffs for US goods. Why not US cannot tariff them back? I think trump got hard balls. Which US president halted funding to WHO? Only Trump got the balls to do that.

See whether HK, Europe or US market better, lol!

 

[stanlawj]

Ok, then XLV is slightly up/flat YTD means it's acting defensive in this correction.
I was pointing out that XLV is not participating in this rebound in the past few days. But XBI crash is portending bad things for the research side. Both XLV and XBI are related... so I don't know if XLV will be safe.

Healthcare (XLV) is one of the best performing sectors ytd, in fact SP500 ex-mag7 is actually flat ytd. Most of the market damage came from large outward facing US tech companies.

A contrarian may say XLV is a buy, but it may underperform or go lower for months if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. continues to roll out changes, which market usually reacts negatively to the unknowns at first.


The health industry is starting to express alarm about RFK Jr. Drug and medical device makers didn’t oppose Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s confirmation as health secretary but are speaking up in opposition to the agency downsizing he ordered. (1 Apr 2025 - not April Fools' joke).

Is XLV affected by the changes implemented by the new head of Department of Health and Human Services, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.?

 

[tazzycorner]

started red, flipped super green for now

interesting to see what comes next

 

[stanlawj]

Trump tariffs:

Cambodia: 49%!!!!
Vietnam: 46%!!!!!
Thailand: 36%
China: 34%
Indonesia: 32%
Switzerland: 31%
India: 26%
South Korea: 25%
Japan: 24%
Malaysia: 24%
EU: 20%



Minimum is 10% for most countries including Singapore.

Corporations can avoid these tariffs by building their factories in USA.

South-east Asia is gone case. Looks like Singapore is winner again in SEA, thanks to PAP!!! Factories will come flooding back to Singapore!!

 

[apple459721]

QQQ Crazy after hr market drop, few min drop -3%+
crazier than when jerome powell talk

why bond yields no spike?
Highly inflationary

 

[DevilPlate]

QQQ Crazy after hr market drop, few min drop -3%+
crazier than when jerome powell talk

why bond yields no spike?
Highly inflationary

Recession incoming=deflation or stagflation?

 

[elvintay07]

1m65 is the true winner here. Most of the expert here hong gan

 

[d5dude]

Trump tariffs:

Cambodia: 49%!!!!
Vietnam: 46%!!!!!
Thailand: 36%
China: 34%
Indonesia: 32%
Switzerland: 31%
India: 26%
South Korea: 25%
Japan: 24%
Malaysia: 24%
EU: 20%



Minimum is 10% for most countries including Singapore.

Corporations can avoid these tariffs by building their factories in USA.

South-east Asia is gone case. Looks like Singapore is winner again in SEA, thanks to PAP!!! Factories will come flooding back to Singapore!!

This is really horrible, especially for China. 34% reciprocal tariff is on top of the existing 20% tariff so tariff on China is currently a whopping 54%.

One piece of good news is that reciprocal tariff on Mexico and Canada is 0% since Trump has allowed companies to apply for exemptions under USMCA and many goods fall under USMCA.

 

[d5dude]

Countries like China, Canada, European Unions also have high tariffs for US goods. Why not US cannot tariff them back? I think trump got hard balls. Which US president halted funding to WHO? Only Trump got the balls to do that.

See whether HK, Europe or US market better, lol!

Who told you that these countries got high tariffs? Trump anyhow say you anyhow believe?

 

[d5dude]

Recession incoming=deflation or stagflation?

Sharp price spike will cause overall consumption to drop, which will in turn hit the economy. There are also other second order effects like retaliation, boycott, etc.

 

[elvintay07]

Who told you that these countries got high tariffs? Trump anyhow say you anyhow believe?

He got show this table mah.

 

[d5dude]

He got show this table mah.

He made those numbers up. Many of the countries on the table have nearly zero (or zero) tariffs on US goods, also Trump conflating VAT with tariffs is just stupid. VAT applies to all goods and services consumed within the country, even ones that are produced domestically, it cannot be considered a trade barrier.

Trump is a literal fool, he was only good for the stock market during his first term because that was all he cared about, but like I said some time ago this is no longer the case.

 

[stanlawj]

This is really horrible, especially for China. 34% reciprocal tariff is on top of the existing 20% tariff so tariff on China is currently a whopping 54%.

One piece of good news is that reciprocal tariff on Mexico and Canada is 0% since Trump has allowed companies to apply for exemptions under USMCA and many goods fall under USMCA.

More data incoming: comparison with trade deficits.

source

Singapore's data looks wrong... there is no trade deficit with US. It's trade surplus. But South-East Asia is cooked!

 

[revhappy]

India 26% tariffs and China 54%.
Probably the first time, India and China could work together and boycott US

 

[stanlawj]

1m65 is the true winner here. Most of the expert here hong gan

Nope.. Mr. Loo still holding alot of SP500. He didn't sell everything.
I'm not of those hong gan experts.

Long JPY, silver and silver miners, SREITS!

India 26% tariffs and China 54%.
Probably the first time, India and China could work together and boycott US

Pharmaceutical drug shortage coming soon to US.
Existing supply on the shelves will be all be quickly hoarded up.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asi...generic-medicine-donald-trump-tariffs-4878576

 

[revhappy]

 

[aurvandil]

We are down nearly 4% in the S&P futures. Volume is extremely heavy and we are good to go for a possible limit down, the first since covid.

Next major event is Fri NFP. If we get a bad print showing labour market weakening, this will add oil to the fire.

Everyone has had months to prepare for this so there is really no excuse to be caught off guard. Best thing to do is stick to your trading plan and execute accordingly.

 

[revhappy]

I somehow don't believe the current futures pricing will stick at the cash open. The BTFD crowd is still alive and I am sure Trump admin will saying some soothing around the cash open.

 

[aurvandil]

I somehow don't believe the current futures pricing will stick at the cash open. The BTFD crowd is still alive and I am sure Trump admin will saying some soothing around the cash open.

Likely to be a global market sell off starting with Asia and then moving on to Europe.

 

[DevilPlate]

Nope.. Mr. Loo still holding alot of SP500. He didn't sell everything.
I'm not of those hong gan experts.




Pharmaceutical drug shortage coming soon to US.
Existing supply on the shelves will be all be quickly hoarded up.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asi...generic-medicine-donald-trump-tariffs-4878576

But silver also crash
Only Gold hold up