USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[DevilPlate]

SPY PS ratio is currently 40% higher than dotcom bubble lolol

 

[d9lives]

The things thats got you to 400% could be the very things that take you to 0. I hope you are taking profits and keeping your capital aside when you take such insane risks.

Yep, I've withdrawn my capital so it's 100% casino money.

 

[d9lives]

Like dat ok lah... I thot you are like this bro .. He said he got no cash and has to cut back on eating as he has no sell button also

But I am like that bro.
No sell button, no money.
The difference is, I am still eating like a horse.

 

[DevilPlate]

But I am like that bro.
No sell button, no money.
The difference is, I am still eating like a horse.

Whenever i go for casino trips, i also eat till song song even if i lose money lolol
Treat it as entertainment fees

 

[homer123]

But I am like that bro.
No sell button, no money.
The difference is, I am still eating like a horse.

This means you still money... that bro is literally all in with no sell button just like the other finfluencer

 

[DevilPlate]

US treasury bonds keep crashing…..DXY keep crashing

Economic Crisis brewing?

I think Trump cannot tong for 90days liao

@aurvandil
Will/Can Powell help to stabilise their long term bonds?

 

[revhappy]

In this environment best to hold GBP and EUR

 

[stanlawj]

Beri jialat. Just look at the drop from Feb 25.
1y chart.

Actually, just cut all positions when your portfolio broke its uptrend line. That means the market conditions have changed. By doing this, you will still be up +300% plus. Or cut when it went parabolic in Q4 2024, because it is an unsustainable rate of change. At that time, all the memecoins were exploding up as well.

 

[spoon69]

Bro, you good?

Always, good to rebalance some into cash for dry powder. Thanks for your kindness

 

[aurvandil]

@aurvandil
Will/Can Powell help to stabilise their long term bonds?

FED is geared toward stopping any disorderly conduct of the bond market it. As is, no such sign of this happening. We went into this crisis with an almost flat yield curve. The curve seems to be reverting to what it was pre GFC 1.0 where there was a 100 bps to 200 bps gap btw the long end and the short end of the curve. This means the long end of the curve still got some ways more to go.

The USD is dropping. It is however not collapsing by eye catching amounts unlike the wild swings in the stock market. The movement seems relatively orderly.

I wrote previously that there was speculation that China might dump US Treasuries to attack the US. There are no signs of this happening. It looks more like China is slowing or stopping their purchase of Treasuries. This is probably in anticipation that their USD export earnings might dry up very soon. They are therefore stockpiling so that they have USD to pay for imports of food, energy and other raw materials. China is not food or energy self sufficient.

 

[DevilPlate]

FED is geared toward stopping any disorderly conduct of the bond market it. As is, no such sign of this happening. We went into this crisis with an almost flat yield curve. The curve seems to be reverting to what it was pre GFC 1.0 where there was a 100 bps to 200 bps gap btw the long end and the short end of the curve. This means the long end of the curve still got some ways more to go.

The USD is dropping. It is however not collapsing by eye catching amounts unlike the wild swings in the stock market. The movement seems relatively orderly.

I wrote previously that there was speculation that China might dump bonds to attack the US. There are no signs of this happening. It looks more like China is slowing or stopping their purchase of Treasuries. This is probably in anticipation that their USD export earnings drying up very soon. They are therefore stockpiling so that they have USD to pay for imports of food, energy and other raw materials. China is not food or energy self sufficient.

Somehow China haters will always try to make use of every opportunity even tho it is irrelevant to my qn lolol

Im expecting Powell NOT to do anything and let Trump become a Panican

 

[peachmouse]

Some snippets about President Trump in his first term. I was like 'Wow', after I read it. Looks like we will see more 'experimental' policies from the US.

 

[Jirachi]

The two nations really.

 

[DevilPlate]

Some snippets about President Trump in his first term. I was like 'Wow', after I read it. Looks like we will see more 'experimental' policies from the US.

you might be interested in this video haha


I like he said Trump is consistently inconsistent.

 

[d5dude]

SPY PS ratio is currently 40% higher than dotcom bubble lolol

And earnings grew 8% last year but the S&P500 gained 25%, it was already fully valued a few months ago even if we assume double digit earnings growth this year.

I think earnings will likely contract and not grow this year if the tariffs stay on, magnitude of contraction depends on severity of 2nd/3rd order effects.

 

[d5dude]

FED is geared toward stopping any disorderly conduct of the bond market it. As is, no such sign of this happening. We went into this crisis with an almost flat yield curve. The curve seems to be reverting to what it was pre GFC 1.0 where there was a 100 bps to 200 bps gap btw the long end and the short end of the curve. This means the long end of the curve still got some ways more to go.

The USD is dropping. It is however not collapsing by eye catching amounts unlike the wild swings in the stock market. The movement seems relatively orderly.

I wrote previously that there was speculation that China might dump US Treasuries to attack the US. There are no signs of this happening. It looks more like China is slowing or stopping their purchase of Treasuries. This is probably in anticipation that their USD export earnings might dry up very soon. They are therefore stockpiling so that they have USD to pay for imports of food, energy and other raw materials. China is not food or energy self sufficient.

Its not the spread thats concerning, its the speed at which the long end is getting sold thats concerning. Somebody is liquidating US long bonds, could be basis trade imploding, foreigners dumping or both. Also look at USD/CHF, its down 8% in a straight line since liberation day, major forex pairs dun move 8% in a week unless something big (bad) is going on.

 

[d5dude]

Some snippets about President Trump in his first term. I was like 'Wow', after I read it. Looks like we will see more 'experimental' policies from the US.

Nobody will trust the US to keep its word as long as Trump is president (and maybe even beyond his term).

 

[stanlawj]

UST meltdown (thread):
AnilVohra1962
Here is what I’ve been able to piece together:

1) China is not selling USTs, even though their official holdings keep dropping. To get a complete picture of their position, it is necessary to include their holdings via Euroclear and other entities.

2) China is short dollars which are being provided to them via Japanese banks. Some of the dollars are being used to support the currency. The trade war will place further pressure on the currency.

3) Rising rates in Japan and pressure on Japanese funds is causing them to unwind the carry trade which is causing downward pressure on US equities, bonds, and the dollar. This is the largest source of selling pressure on bonds. Past experience shows that the carry trade tends to be unwound in waves over months or years.

4) Fast money accounts have a sizable, roughly $1t, basis trade between futures and cash (short futures, long USTs). Having caught wind of the unwind of the JPY carry trade, they are unwinding their basis trade hoping to get out before the unwind of the JPY carry trade.

2025 may be year of the great unwind, whether it’s trade, carry, basis or other.

--------
Sianzzz... lost a lot of SGD by not converting out of USD.

 

[DevilPlate]

Its not the spread thats concerning, its the speed at which the long end is getting sold thats concerning. Somebody is liquidating US long bonds, could be basis trade imploding, foreigners dumping or both. Also look at USD/CHF, its down 8% in a straight line since liberation day, major forex pairs dun move 8% in a week unless something big (bad) is going on.

Agreed just like the speed that Fed spike interest rates in 2022 that cause stock market sell off.

 

[DevilPlate]

UST meltdown (thread):
AnilVohra1962
Here is what I’ve been able to piece together:

1) China is not selling USTs, even though their official holdings keep dropping. To get a complete picture of their position, it is necessary to include their holdings via Euroclear and other entities.

2) China is short dollars which are being provided to them via Japanese banks. Some of the dollars are being used to support the currency. The trade war will place further pressure on the currency.

3) Rising rates in Japan and pressure on Japanese funds is causing them to unwind the carry trade which is causing downward pressure on US equities, bonds, and the dollar. This is the largest source of selling pressure on bonds. Past experience shows that the carry trade tends to be unwound in waves over months or years.

4) Fast money accounts have a sizable, roughly $1t, basis trade between futures and cash (short futures, long USTs). Having caught wind of the unwind of the JPY carry trade, they are unwinding their basis trade hoping to get out before the unwind of the JPY carry trade.

2025 may be year of the great unwind, whether it’s trade, carry, basis or other.

--------
Sianzzz... lost a lot of SGD by not converting out of USD.

I also sian….i converted some SGD to USD js 2 nights ago at 1.35x