[GE2025] Punggol GRC

[jericho75]

It's a zero sum game unless u downgrade to older, cheaper flats.

like my pinoy colleague. sold the hdb then move to canada. profit.

 

[toolbox03]

Sell high buy high. Only those fts can return to home town can huat only

Sell high let chiu buy low, you dare to buy?

A lot of old hdb/condo selling low also you dare to buy?

 

[jericho75]

Sell high let chiu buy low, you dare to buy?

A lot of old hdb/condo selling low also you dare to buy?

that is why not so simple like sell earn then buy again. what if bought a haunted house?

 

[Arbalest]

SXL is damn good. Her ground game is really next level, and this is why residents love her.

 

[jeffrey745]

like my pinoy colleague. sold the hdb then move to canada. profit.

I realised being in SG, all these constant property appreciation can actually be realised when you move elsewhere to stay, preferably a lower cost country.

Like amransan who sold his HDB and moved to aussie with his wife.

Many singaporeans have done this too, or even rent out their properties to to fund their overseas lifestyle...

 

[toolbox03]

SXL is damn good. Her ground game is really next level, and this is why residents love her.

If right now she is dinobu, things will be different

looks does matter to a certain extend

 

[icebleue]

If right now she is dinobu, things will be different

looks does matter to a certain extend

Shes 46 nearing 50 already right. Looks wont matter to xdd edmwer. lol… younger ones can call her mum already.

 

[jericho75]

I realised being in SG, all these constant property appreciation can actually be realised when you move elsewhere to stay, preferably a lower cost country.

Like amransan who sold his HDB and moved to aussie with his wife.

Many singaporeans have done this too, or even rent out their properties to to fund their overseas lifestyle...

but to sinkies not much use. most will be staying in sinkapore.

 

[jeffrey745]

but to sinkies not much use. most will be staying in sinkapore.

Yes what we r seeing is just paper wealth. Need to find ways to optimise it.

 

[jericho75]

Yes what we r seeing is just paper wealth. Need to find ways to optimise it.

Downgrade then no dignity stay inside tiny 2 rm flat lor

 

[WarMage87]

Estimating precise GE2025 vote percentages for Punggol GRC remains highly speculative due to significant uncertainties; however, current limited indicators suggest a competitive race is the most plausible scenario.

• Extreme Uncertainty: Any numerical estimate provided at this stage carries very low analytical confidence (<30%) and is purely illustrative, not a reliable forecast.
• Conflicting Factors: Key unknowns include final candidate slates (PAP, WP, potentially SDA), the dynamic impact of national vs. local issues closer to the election, and the untested voting behaviour within the new GRC boundaries.
• Demographic Tension: The GRC combines a young demographic (potentially favouring opposition) with a large number of new BTO homeowners (potentially favouring incumbent stability), making the net effect unpredictable.
• Illustrative Range Only: The figures below attempt to reflect the potential competitiveness suggested by past results and current context, but are highly speculative and subject to substantial change.

Revised Report: Highly Speculative Estimation of Potential Electoral Outcomes for Punggol GRC [GE2025]

Report Date: 18 April 2025

Subject: Highly Speculative Estimation of Potential Vote Share Ranges in Punggol GRC for GE2025

1. Introduction and Strong Caveats

You have requested an estimated prediction ("Estimate please lah") for the GE2025 results in Punggol GRC. While respecting this request, it is critically important to reiterate that providing a reliable, evidence-based prediction at this stage is impossible.

The factors outlined previously – the constituency's newness, the significant time until the election, the complete lack of confirmed candidate lists, the absence of credible polling data, and the dynamic nature of political issues – make any attempt at a precise forecast highly speculative and subject to significant error.

Therefore, the "estimates" provided below are not firm predictions. They are purely illustrative ranges attempting to reflect the potential competitiveness suggested by combining limited past data with known demographic factors and current national sentiment. These figures carry extremely low confidence (<30%) and should be treated with extreme caution.

2. Basis for Speculative Estimation (Limited Indicators)

This highly tentative estimation considers:

• GE2020 Results: PAP won Punggol West SMC (now part of the GRC) with ~61%. Opposition parties garnered ~36% in the Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC areas now included. This suggests a PAP baseline likely above 50% but with a notable existing opposition vote share.
• Demographics: The young profile might slightly favour the WP compared to older GRCs, but the BTO homeowner factor might favour the PAP. The net effect is unknown.
• National Sentiment: Persistent concerns about cost of living and GST could negatively impact the incumbent PAP, but the extent is unclear.
• Incumbency & Resources: The PAP holds significant advantages in resources and established machinery.
• Potential WP Strength: The WP has demonstrated competitiveness in nearby areas (Sengkang).
• SDA Factor: A potential SDA candidacy adds unpredictability, likely drawing votes mainly from the opposition pool.

3. Highly Speculative Potential Vote Share Ranges (Illustrative Only - Not Predictions)

Acknowledging the extreme uncertainty, if forced to translate the conflicting factors above into hypothetical ranges, one might consider the following plausible scenarios reflecting potential competitiveness. These are not forecasts:

Scenario Basis	Hypothetical PAP % Range	Hypothetical WP % Range	Notes
Baseline (GE2020 Adjusted)	55% - 62%	38% - 45%	Reflects combining past results, assuming relative stability. Does not account for new dynamics.
Scenario: Strong National Headwinds for PAP	50% - 56%	44% - 50%	Assumes cost of living/GST significantly impacts PAP vote, WP fields strong team, minimal SDA impact. Suggests a very tight contest.
Scenario: Incumbency Advantage Prevails	58% - 64%	36% - 42%	Assumes homeowner priorities favour PAP, SXL's popularity translates well, WP challenge less impactful, or SDA splits opposition vote significantly.
Scenario: Highly Fragmented (with Strong SDA)	54% - 60%	30% - 38%	(SDA range speculative, e.g., 5%-10%). Assumes SDA draws significant votes, primarily weakening WP. Increases PAP's likelihood of winning comfortably.

Crucial Disclaimer: These ranges are purely conceptual illustrations based on balancing limited current factors. They have minimal predictive power. The actual outcome could easily fall outside these speculative ranges depending on campaign events, candidate quality, and shifts in voter priorities.

4. Conclusion

Providing a reliable estimate for the Punggol GRC GE2025 election result is not feasible. The analysis strongly suggests a potentially competitive race, but the multitude of unknown variables makes the outcome highly uncertain. The speculative ranges presented above serve only to illustrate this potential competitiveness and must not be interpreted as predictive forecasts. The final result will only be known after votes are cast and counted.

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References

Not applicable for speculative estimations. Analysis relies on interpretation of publicly available past data and current discourse.

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PS

The desire for a prediction is understandable, but the principles of rigorous analysis necessitate acknowledging the limits of predictability, especially in complex systems like elections with many unknown future inputs. Focusing on the influencing factors offers more reliable insight than a premature numerical guess.

Footnotes

• All percentages are hypothetical and illustrative.
• Analysis assumes a contest involving at least PAP and WP, with SDA as a potential third party. Other parties are not factored into this specific speculative exercise due to lack of current indication.

Optional Enhancement

Reiterating from the previous report, a more grounded assessment requires waiting for:

• Confirmed candidate lists.
• Credible polling data closer to the election.
• Observation of campaign dynamics and messaging.

 

[Akky85]

that is why not so simple like sell earn then buy again. what if bought a haunted house?

Buy a haunted house, at least 1 of the possible option is to get a master to try to make it clean again. Not 100% but possibility is there.

High prices? The owner die die also won't sell low. No way to force them to lower the price short of some crazy once in a lifetime happening.

I think u have better chance at buying a haunted house and successfully getting a master to clean it for u

 

[ramlee]

Personally for me and my partner by society standards yes?
2023/2024 was quite shun for both of us, promotions and moved to a more ideal place. But we were the “lucky” ones. And our jobs have a different type of stability.

We are doing comfortably but we are also on the frugal side so I know how much groceries have gone up in price for cooking at home and taking bus etc. and I’ve seen my relatives lose it all so I know how volatile everything g can be.

not sure if those earning high salaries are because my circle /subset is small so I can’t speak for them (people don’t always tell their salary mahhhh), but a lot of middle-high incomers I come across are fence sitters and this time choose pap… they say unsure of both sides so decide for safety.

I also told this anecdote elsewhere mah,,, I have an oppo supporting friend last time always say Sengkang very lucky got good Oppo can vote, say his side no chance. When he finally moved into his BTO, and this time got chance of good Oppo… he decided he still leans towards pap…

All these to say, of course the ones with empathy or doing badly will see that Singapore is going in a fairly dangerous direction, but will everyone vote wisely? Will there be enough impetus for the portion who are still doing well and never experienced recession, job losses before in their industry/life to change their decision? We don’t know.

I think Gen Z quite enigma to me. I cannot predict their vote. But a huge part of millennials are still quite staunchly PAP supporters as “ meritocracy” has served them well so far.

They will be hit the big 4 soon, the age where ageism hits them

 

[jericho75]

Buy a haunted house, at least 1 of the possible option is to get a master to try to make it clean again. Not 100% but possibility is there.

High prices? The owner die die also won't sell low. No way to force them to lower the price short of some crazy once in a lifetime happening.

I think u have better chance at buying a haunted house and successfully getting a master to clean it for u

Most sinkies only can afford one home so very hard to earn one. Unless u sell near mrt then stay in the mountains. Decline quality of living

 

[jericho75]

They will be hit the big 4 soon, the age where ageism hits them

Then have to go temple eat free food

 

[KPO_SAHM]

Yes what we r seeing is just paper wealth. Need to find ways to optimise it.

When HDB gets more valued, I don even intend to sell. Bought at 190k (90sqm) around 2004. Now my area highest transaction price is 870k. Less than 150m to mrt and lots of amenities around my block. So convenient to travel to town. If sell , where to get back unit that is sheltered and 150m to mrt leh? Numbers ($$$) looks good . Most people buy to stay and not for investment. HDB should not use for flipping for profits

 

[couch.potato]

They will be hit the big 4 soon, the age where ageism hits them

This is very true. But never kena bitten don’t know mah. Which is why I ??? Why a lot of people don’t believe people will still vote however they vote when their lives are good.

never kena true recession or job loss before where will scared one? Who cares about paper gains all these talk when THEY are the ones with their Bidadari flats they win lotto with and now worth $1m?

It’s true Singaporeans got more and more political awakening, but also true that a huge portion of Singaporeans won’t wake up until they really really need to. Realistic one.

but end up like I very evil like that, or very stupid don’t want to listen. It’s not that. There’s a reason why so many caution against being overly optimistic for opposition. U go speak to opposition yourself you also know, the sentiments don’t reflect into votes one. Work until bua si, still have people comment opposition this and that.

 

[alvincy]

like my pinoy colleague. sold the hdb then move to canada. profit.

PR should only allowed to buy resale HDB with extra stamp duty and only allowed to sell back to the gov at the similar purchase price.

There is no such thing as 20yrs 30yrs PR. Our gov reallly treat foreigners better than citizens.

PR is foreigner and PAP always like to lump them together as local.

 

[valkyrie112]

SXL is very well liked in Punggol West. If it was still her standing in for SMC Punggol West, chance of losing is almost close to 0. But now merged into a GRC and if it contains the super unpopular put2cherry as dead weight, won't be surprise if this follow Sengkang GRC footstep.

She got 60% only against an unknown candidate from WP. From a friend who lives in Punggol West, she's popular but mostly amongst those who are not struggling with cost of living coz the RCs organise many activities, including the condos there and her well taken photos are everywhere.

 

[ZergRush]

Errrrhhhh.... about 40% didn't vote for her..... 60% win is national average no?

My maths wrong?

After she won she was quite consistent with her ground work.