USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

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stanlawj

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Shortages coming to US



Not a coincidence that UST 10yr yield starting to ramp up.
I bet someone on Trump's team will call Xi's team.
Trump does not have a choice. Either call Xi, or end America by blowing up the UST bond market .
 
aurvandil

aurvandil

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Trump has zero intention to actually fire Powell.
Market is pricing that Powell will defy Trump and hold rates steady at the next FOMC.

This sets the stage for Trump to make Powell the scapegoat for the upcoming US recession.
FED is forecasting negative GDP growth for 1Q25 GDP.

If he does not resign on his own accord, our hero from covid and Biden soft landing is going to have his name and legacy dragged through the mud.

If he actually goes through with it because his SCOTUS has cleared the way, it will be because he has squarely pinned the blame for US economic problems on Powell's back and there is political benefit to fire him as an act of retribution. Given the timeline, this will probably be just before Powell's term expires.

Welcome to the new world order !
 
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stanlawj

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aurvandil said:
Trump has zero intention to actually fire Powell.
Market is pricing that Powell will defy Trump and hold rates steady at the next FOMC.

This sets the stage for Trump to make Powell the scapegoat for the upcoming US recession.
FED is forecasting negative GDP growth for 1Q25 GDP.

If he does not resign on his own accord, our hero from covid and Biden soft landing is going to have his name and legacy dragged through the mud.

If he actually goes through with it because his SCOTUS has cleared the way, it will be because he has squarely pinned the blame for US economic problems on Powell's back and there is political benefit to fire him as an act of retribution. Given the timeline, this will probably be just before Powell's term expires.

Welcome to the new world order !
Click to expand...
Fully agree. MSM is trying to hide the fact that UST market is in deep trouble and US stocks are about to get another round of heavy selling.
 
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yslvlys

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stanlawj said:
UST 10-yr yields hardly changed. No crisis so far.
Only Chinese citizens piling into physical gold.

META breaks new lows, which is understandable since they lost their Chinese advertisers (no more made-in-China goods to advertise).
Looking for stocks that are bucking the trend? BTC, MSTR, MDWD.

Or just stay in cash like me and watch most of the market slowly burn down from a distance.

GpEI-8QX0AAdS_I

"The stock market and the economy will not survive both tariffs and a hawkish Fed. It is that simple. One or both things must change."
Click to expand...
I am majority in cash and tend to stay so but just can't help to take a small bite when prices drop to attractive levels.
 
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stanlawj

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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION SAYS IT WILL RESUME COLLECTIONS OF ITS DEFAULTED FEDERAL STUDENT LOAN PORTFOLIO ON MONDAY, MAY 5 2025.

Grok, how bad will this affect the consumers in USA? (includes special question on AFRM).

USDJPY is bear flagging this morning. Not a good sign for the next few days. It implies UST and USD both going down (i.e. UST yields up).

Does Trump have the luxury to wait 80 days more? Or even 30 days?
 
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aurvandil

aurvandil

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stanlawj said:
Fully agree. MSM is trying to hide the fact that UST market is in deep trouble and US stocks are about to get another round of heavy selling.
Click to expand...

On the price action, I don't see anything particularly alarming. Yesterday was Easter Monday. Europe was closed. The sell off covered a lot of range but volume was not particularly heavy. We have have been in wide trading range since Liberation Day and the selloff brings us to the halfback of the range. Given we are at the halfback, It is 50-50 where we go. We would bounce or we could go all the way back down to retest the 4832 on the S&P futures. We will probably get a clearer picture when Europe reopens this pm.
 
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DevilPlate

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aurvandil said:
Trump has zero intention to actually fire Powell.
Market is pricing that Powell will defy Trump and hold rates steady at the next FOMC.

This sets the stage for Trump to make Powell the scapegoat for the upcoming US recession.
FED is forecasting negative GDP growth for 1Q25 GDP.

If he does not resign on his own accord, our hero from covid and Biden soft landing is going to have his name and legacy dragged through the mud.

If he actually goes through with it because his SCOTUS has cleared the way, it will be because he has squarely pinned the blame for US economic problems on Powell's back and there is political benefit to fire him as an act of retribution. Given the timeline, this will probably be just before Powell's term expires.

Welcome to the new world order !
Click to expand...
MAGA no matter what still believe everything Warlord said.....sibei power
 
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stanlawj

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aurvandil said:
On the price action, I don't see anything particularly alarming. Yesterday was Easter Monday. Europe was closed. The sell off covered a lot of range but volume was not particularly heavy. We have have been in wide trading range since Liberation Day and the selloff brings us to the halfback of the range. Given we are at the halfback, It is 50-50 where we go. We would bounce or we could go all the way back down to retest the 4832 on the S&P futures. We will probably get a clearer picture when Europe reopens this pm.
Click to expand...
MOVE is sharply up. UST 10yr and 30yr yields are both sharply up. That is a big red flag.
 
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limster

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A few weeks ago, VWRD was under $120. If it doesn't go under $120, I don't think its a strong buy. I will still do some monthly DCA though.

I will continue to queue for more NVO and average down :ROFLMAO:
 
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DevilPlate

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limster said:
A few weeks ago, VWRD was under $120. If it doesn't go under $120, I don't think its a strong buy. I will still do some monthly DCA though.

I will continue to queue for more NVO and average down :ROFLMAO:
Click to expand...
Ya same if VWRD drop to ~110, i will fire another shot.


lets hope this Bear is correct :s13:
 
redname

redname

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limster said:
A few weeks ago, VWRD was under $120. If it doesn't go under $120, I don't think its a strong buy. I will still do some monthly DCA though.

I will continue to queue for more NVO and average down :ROFLMAO:
Click to expand...

i also waiting for it to drip below 120, tht time i buy in too little at 119 :(
 
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