USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[davonir]

As I wrote before, if you trade based on your understanding of the news flow, you will most likely lose money. News flow and narrative are only useful as environmental factors for your trade. As an example, suppose you are going into a battle. News flow and narrative would be the equivalent to the weather and the terrain you are fighting on. They have an impact on the outcome but are not the decisive factor.

Yeah, I only use news as a means to getting prices to my pre-planned trade levels and bringing prices to me. I don't trade based on what the actual news contains.

The actual thing that really matters is this:

Stanley Drunkenmiller:

Earnings don't move the overall market; it's the Federal Reserve Board... focus on the central banks, and focus on the movement of liquidity... most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It's liquidity that moves markets.

 

[stanlawj]

I'm not shorting any stocks. Happy to sit out and just use this moment to decode the correlations between UST, FX and US stocks.

I wouldn't be betting that the breakout fails and we fall back into range. That is a high risk low return trade. If the breakout is successful, the structure above is very weak and we could find ourselves back up at 5850 very quickly. If that breaks, we go back into the range we were in before Deepseek and market was trying to make new ATH.

Trump admin is on track to blow out the Federal spending to new ATH again. $1T defense budget up from $750B, etc.

I'm waiting for the next catalyst yet to be priced in: end of Ukraine-Russia war and lifting of Russian sanctions (bearish for commodities).

 

[DevilPlate]

People like to talk about the trade war as if it is the be all and end all for the stock market.
It is not. We are in the middle of earnings season.

Tesla's earnings came on Tues. It was bad but it was not the bloodbath many had feared. The stock price has pushed back up. Alphabet also came out. The results look quite ok.

Market has pushed up and we are near the top of the range we have established since Liberation Day. I wouldn't be betting that the breakout fails and we fall back into range. That is a high risk low return trade. If the breakout is successful, the structure above is very weak and we could find ourselves back up at 5850 very quickly. If that breaks, we go back into the range we were in before Deepseek and market was trying to make new ATH.

As I wrote before, if you trade based on your understanding of the news flow, you will most likely lose money. News flow and narrative are only useful as environmental factors for your trade. As an example, suppose you are going into a battle. News flow and narrative would be the equivalent to the weather and the terrain you are fighting on. They have an impact on the outcome but are not the decisive factor.

So whats yr current bets are?

 

[DevilPlate]

I'm not shorting any stocks. Happy to sit out and just use this moment to decode the correlations between UST, FX and US stocks.

Trump admin is on track to blow out the Federal spending to new ATH again. $1T defense budget up from $750B, etc.

I'm waiting for the next catalyst yet to be priced in: end of Ukraine-Russia war and lifting of Russian sanctions (bearish for commodities).

Some say US debts are compounded at 8% pa.
How I wish my portfolio can perform so well consistently

 

[stanlawj]

ok... guys.. it's confirmed bull run... no tariff-induced shortage. Congrats to those who BTFD the tariff crash.

Always inverse the news. By the time MSM publish these fears, means that management has already planned for this contingency and everything will be fine. Eg. just before the gold started its major correction from $3500, many sell-side (banks) research upgraded gold long-term targets to new ATHs.

 

[DevilPlate]

ok... guys.. it's confirmed bull run... no tariffs. Congrats to those who BTFD the tariff crash.

Always inverse the news. By the time MSM publish these fears, means that management has already planned for this contingency and everything will be fine.

i tot they said shelves will be empty within next few weeks and not months leh.
This article is quite bullish imo

 

[aurvandil]

So whats yr current bets are?

As i wrote before, I am overall long the market. I am however a cowardly bull.
So I give up some of that unlimited upside to buy short hedges for downside protection.

 

[DevilPlate]

As i wrote before, I am overall long the market. I am however a cowardly bull.
So I give up some of that unlimited upside to buy short hedges for downside protection.

i tot u mostly doing short term trading

 

[stanlawj]

USD strengthening during Tokyo session. Good sign supporting US stock bull move. I would prefer to wait for SP500 to reach 50-day MA and show some loss of momentum there first before shorting any stock.

Indices going up as expected. Exiting equity longs and entering some shorts here. Reserving bullets for another short-term Trump announcement to push prices up higher before collapsing.

 

[d5dude]

Until end of next year so long ar?
I tot he gona be a lame duck at the end of the 90d

He'd still have substantial power as long the republicans control the house and senate, that is unless public approval tanks really hard and his party members start to worry well before mid terms.

Meanwhile he still got at least 18 months to make money from his crypto grift and insider trading.

 

[d5dude]

Yeah, bear markets are much harder to trade compared to bull markets. "Everyone is a genius in a bull market". Bear markets has lots of opportunities due to the volatility, but you need an edge and proper trade management (profit, risk management) to do well.

By the time you see the "news" on MSM, the main move has already happened. Most news folks, journalists, analysts are clueless about the market, otherwise they'd be making a much better living trading the market. Some analysts from well known firms also deliberately give an opposing view to make the retail traders take the opposite trade for increased liquidity.

But how are you supposed to have an "edge" when you are not even aware that the fed is forbidden from buying treasury bonds in the primary market?

This is like classic Dunning-Kruger...

 

[d5dude]

ok... guys.. it's confirmed bull run... no tariff-induced shortage. Congrats to those who BTFD the tariff crash.

Always inverse the news. By the time MSM publish these fears, means that management has already planned for this contingency and everything will be fine. Eg. just before the gold started its major correction from $3500, many sell-side (banks) research upgraded gold long-term targets to new ATHs.

The stockpile will run out eventually but Trump will obviously capitulate or find some stupid excuse to remove the tariffs before the shelves become empty.

 

[DevilPlate]

The stockpile will run out eventually but Trump will obviously capitulate or find some stupid excuse to remove the tariffs before the shelves become empty.

He machiam like where got fire burning and then pour water.
I pity their SME…..sure lotsa bankruptcies

 

[d5dude]

He machiam like where got fire burning and then pour water.
I pity their SME…..sure lotsa bankruptcies

All this nonsense just to enrich his family and satisfy his fetish for tariffs. Yea and this scum is probably thinking of running for president in 2028 again:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-store-offers-trump-2028-hat-amid-tease/story?id=121137005

Feels like America is in twilight zone now.

 

[aurvandil]

i tot u mostly doing short term trading

For me, the current market regime doesn't allow for short term trades. I will need for the market regime to revert to what we were having during Aug 24 to Oct 24 for me to do short term trades. I closed my short term book for 2024 US Presidential Elections and have not reopened it since.

I was expecting Trump to do some crazy stuff but I wasn't expecting it to be this batshit crazy.

 

[davonir]

But how are you supposed to have an "edge" when you are not even aware that the fed is forbidden from buying treasury bonds in the primary market?

This is like classic Dunning-Kruger...

Yes, you're absolutely correct! I have no edge, the only trading edge I have is looking at random WSB posts, tea leaves, phases of the moon, and measuring the aspects and trines of the planetary system.

However, one fateful night I saw a reddit post and the stars and planets did align and it prompted me enter a ZB short, although I know nothing absolutely about this market at all.

What does ZB stand for? Zoolala Bro or something, am I right?



I bow in fear in the light of the superior knowledge of d5dude
I beseech you to impart me your powers, O Master d5dude
For I am not worthy of your greatness and supreme intellect
Speaketh not to me O Master d5dude for I am not worthy!
Banish me from the confines and depths of your conversations
For I am but a spawn of Dunning-Kruger

 

[davonir]

USD strengthening during Tokyo session. Good sign supporting US stock bull move. I would prefer to wait for SP500 to reach 50-day MA and show some loss of momentum there first before shorting any stock.

My actual sell levels are still way above. So holding onto entering shorts until it's reached through another price spike. Extreme patience and trading of the long-term primary trend is needed in this market.

 

[DevilPlate]

Yes, you're absolutely correct! I have no edge, the only trading edge I have is looking at random WSB posts, tea leaves, phases of the moon, and measuring the aspects and trines of the planetary system.

However, one fateful night I saw a reddit post and the stars and planets did align and it prompted me enter a ZB short, although I know nothing absolutely about this market at all.

What does ZB stand for? Zoolala Bro or something, am I right?



I bow in fear in the light of the superior knowledge of d5dude
I beseech you to impart me your powers, O Master d5dude
For I am not worthy of your greatness and supreme intellect
Speaketh not to me O Master d5dude for I am not worthy!
Banish me from the confines and depths of your conversations
For I am but a spawn of Dunning-Kruger

Hey huat kueh…..so in yr view we are heading into multi year bear market and cannot see ATH again (SPY/QQQ) many years later?

 

[stanlawj]

Ok, so you're one of those UST bond raiders. Do you sense the desperation in Trump admin in talking up the bond market? (i.e. to drop the long duration yields) I read and sense desperation in them. They're resorting to lots of speculative words now.

Yes, you're absolutely correct! I have no edge, the only trading edge I have is looking at random WSB posts, tea leaves, phases of the moon, and measuring the aspects and trines of the planetary system.

However, one fateful night I saw a reddit post and the stars and planets did align and it prompted me enter a ZB short, although I know nothing absolutely about this market at all.

What does ZB stand for? Zoolala Bro or something, am I right?



I bow in fear in the light of the superior knowledge of d5dude
I beseech you to impart me your powers, O Master d5dude
For I am not worthy of your greatness and supreme intellect
Speaketh not to me O Master d5dude for I am not worthy!
Banish me from the confines and depths of your conversations
For I am but a spawn of Dunning-Kruger

 

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