USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[davonir]

IMO, shorting QQQ or SPY is worthless pursuit. The only good time to short them is when there is exogenous shock event like Liberation Day or Covid.

Maybe on hindsight, I should have piled onto the ZB shorts that I added around 2nd May (the ZB Sep contracts), but I would rather spread out my risks than to put too much eggs in any one basket. Will stick to my trading plan and levels for now.

 

[davonir]

Added more MNQ shorts on the latest Trump "announcement". Bonds and FX markets are hardly moving in the meantime.

 

[stanlawj]

US-China trade talks begin.



I bought MUFG (8306) on TSE this morning for a tariff news-driven rebound play.
Update: sold for $200...not much rebound, short-term movement is too correlated to weak JPY (stock up when JPY is weak), not worth my time.

 

[d9lives]

US-China trade talks begin.



I bought MUFG (8306) on TSE this morning for a tariff news-driven rebound play.

China stocks are mooning.
Soon, ama laugh at the china hater @elvintay07

 

[stanlawj]

U.S. Department of the Treasury
Office of Public Affairs
Press Release: May 6, 2025
Contact: press@treasury.gov
Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent to Travel to Switzerland

WASHINGTON — On May 8, Secretary of the Treasury Scott K.H. Bessent will travel to Switzerland.

“Economic security is national security, and President Donald J. Trump is leading the way both at home and abroad for a stronger, more prosperous America,” said Secretary Bessent. “I look forward to productive talks as we work towards rebalancing the international economic system towards better serving the interests of the United States.”

During Secretary Bessent’s visit to Switzerland, he will meet with President Karin Ketter-Sutter of Switzerland, during which the Secretary will follow up on their recent meeting on the sidelines of the recent World Bank Group (WBG) – International Monetary Fund (IMF) Spring Meetings.

While in Switzerland, Secretary Bessent will also meet with the lead representative on economic matters from the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

 

[stanlawj]

China stocks are mooning.
Soon, ama laugh at the china hater @elvintay07

Buy the rumor, sell the news? I think it may be time to take partial profits on the China stocks that have moved up alot since the tariff bottom? But also quite possible for BABA to regain the peak at 140.

 

[d9lives]

Buy the rumor, sell the news? I think it may be time to take partial profits on the China stocks that have moved up alot since the tariff bottom? But also quite possible for BABA to regain the peak at 140.

Yep, my baba calls up 80% in <2w.
Should have bought more but I am not as brave as I once was.

I am waiting for a few more big news ->
tariff, earning, stimulus, ant.

 

[d5dude]

More will follow dump usd?

Carry trade blew up.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...rry-trade-blow-up-means-bigger-dollar-trouble

 

[d5dude]

d5dude,
curious to know how low you think the USDSGD can go? 70% of my networth is in USD (mainly cos due to my salaries being paid in that) and I wonder if USDSGD will ever get back to 1.35 - 1.4 ever?

I went through the 2011 to 2013 years when USDSGD was hovering around 1.2. Hope not to get that bad. The freefalling over the last few weeks is demoralising.

Planning to purchase some property in another 12 to 24 months and will need quite a bit of SGD. Wonder if I should wait for any possible bounceback to 1.35 or start changing USD To SGD each month going forward to even it out (at least to reach the downpayment amount I expect I would need).

I wish I knew but I dun have a crystal ball...

 

[DevilPlate]

Yep, my baba calls up 80% in <2w.
Should have bought more but I am not as brave as I once was.

I am waiting for a few more big news ->
tariff, earning, stimulus, ant.

Ant group IPO

 

[DevilPlate]

Carry trade blew up.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...rry-trade-blow-up-means-bigger-dollar-trouble

Hearsay Taiwanese took home equity loan at 2%+ and whack US Tbonds at 4%+

 

[d5dude]

60% was what was touted along the campaign trail and is the most common bandied about number about where things will end. The 10% universal was also something widely expected before he walked up to that podium with his big chart. The longer this drags, the more chance this will stick as supply chain adjust to the new reality.

No supply chain is going to adjust to a 60% tariff on China, its as good as a trade embargo and that means empty shelves. Also there is no indication that the tariffs on other countries will stay at 10%.

On capital outflow, I think it is a knee jerk reaction. The question is where to flow to. China, Japan, the EU? All have domestic issues which are significantly worse than the US. Even for the SGD, MAS is allowing for an appreciation in line with our import partners so that we don't get an inflationary spike. If the recession hits us as expected, MAS will then start devaluing the SGD as part of their package to attract FDI and get SG out of recession.

Permanently higher tariffs will result in lower trade deficits which will result in less dollars that will need to be invested in US capital markets, this wouldnt ordinarily be a problem but the US govt is running a 7% fiscal deficit. And its not just trade policy thats eroding trust in the dollar, like I said many weeks ago its also the undermining of the rule of law (which is what safeguards the interests of investors), pissing off allies, etc.

People who think Trump is playing some sort of 4D chess has been proven wrong, the truth is he is just incompetent, I think things would be far worse now if it wasnt for Bessent.

 

[d5dude]

Last week's economic numbers changed the complexion of everything.

The GDP decline was much smaller than expected. NFP also came in much stronger than expected. Current consensus is that if there is a slowdown in the US, it will be a very mild one. Expectations for FOMC have now shifted so that there is no rate cut for next two FOMC. For the whole year, expectations is for only 75 bps cut, starting toward the end of 2025. On inflation, the expectation is also that this will not come roaring back. FED forecast for May is that this will come in at 2.19%.

There was front loading of imports and shelves are not empty yet, many executives are still waiting for Trump to fold, some of them are actively lobbying for exemptions (and getting it). The impact to the economy will materalise later if this thing drags on.

Paul Tudor Jones was on CNBC last night and he thinks we see new lows even if China tariffs get cut to 50%, reason being this is still the largest tax hike since the 60s. I tend to agree with him, these tariffs are simply far too high, no way they stay where they are and the market just ignores it.

 

[DevilPlate]

Market does not quite seem to agree with the dire predictions.
My hedges are however still on even as the market continues to climb higher.

Short term nobody can predict.

I read some report that US Retail investors are BTFD in the recent rally…..
Maybe Retail is the smart money this time…..

 

[aurvandil]

Short term nobody can predict.

I read some report that US Retail investors are BTFD in the recent rally…..
Maybe Retail is the smart money this time…..

Retail sentiment is best measured by what you see on youtube and MSM.
So far, everybody is still pretty negative.

At the end of the day, market is always the final judge. Over the years, I have learnt to always pay attention when what is supposed to happen doesn't. It has never been because I am smarter than the market. It has always been because there are people smarter than me or in possession of non public information driving the move.

 

[DevilPlate]

Retail sentiment is best measured by what you see on youtube and MSM.
So far, everybody is still pretty negative.

At the end of the day, market is always the final judge. Over the years, I have learnt to always pay attention when what is supposed to happen doesn't. It has never been because I am smarter than the market. It has always been because there are people smarter than me or in possession of non public information driving the move.

Cannot gauge based on YT/social media one lah.

Shouting Crash is da best selling click bait title/content to garner viewerships

 

[d5dude]

Retail sentiment is best measured by what you see on youtube and MSM.
So far, everybody is still pretty negative.

At the end of the day, market is always the final judge. Over the years, I have learnt to always pay attention when what is supposed to happen doesn't. It has never been because I am smarter than the market. It has always been because there are people smarter than me or in possession of non public information driving the move.

The only people with non public and market moving info right now are Trump and his cronies, the problem is even Trump doesn't know what he will do tomorrow because he has no plans.

This is typical Trump, according to this book "The art of the deal", he goes into office everyday with no real ideas or plans but he is always looking for a good deal. This is probable fine for some businesses but its terrible trying to run a country this way.

Trump's approval ratings are terrible so he doesnt have a ton of political capital to play with anymore, Trump knows this (so does the market).

 

[aurvandil]

The only people with non public and market moving info right now are Trump and his cronies, the problem is even Trump doesn't know what he will do tomorrow because he has no plans.

This is typical Trump, according to this book "The art of the deal", he goes into office everyday with no real ideas or plans but he is always looking for a good deal. This is probable fine for some businesses but its terrible trying to run a country this way.

Trump's approval ratings are terrible so he doesnt have a ton of political capital to play with anymore, Trump knows this (so does the market).

My expectation is that with all negative news and developments, market shouldn't be at 5700 for the futures. Ditto for Treasuries which should be well above 5% for the 10y.

Market is clearly not there. So it is either the people on the other side of the trade are clowns or they know something we do not. This could be because they are smarter than us or because they have non-public information.

 

[stanlawj]

My expectation is that with all negative news and developments, market shouldn't be at 5700 for the futures. Ditto for Treasuries which should be well above 5% for the 10y.

Market is clearly not there. So it is either the people on the other side of the trade are clowns or they know something we do not. This could be because they are smarter than us or because they have non-public information.

I have a very simple explanation.
There is a group of institutional money managers (professionals hired by funds to manage investment decisions) that sold the top at 6000 and/or also shorted to crash the market. Trump's Liberation Day added more fuel to the fire (causing even more money managers to sell). They were thinking of buying back their positions at SP500 below 5000.

However retail money bought the dip all the way down. Post Liberation Day, SP500 only went below 5000 too briefly. Trump broadcasted "it's a great time to buy" on Truth Social, then retail degens and market makers for PFOF brokers bought even more quickly.

The institutional (professional) money managers haven't really bought back enough and is underperforming the market YTD.
Just look at Warren Buffett, the slowest smart money. He's still sitting on a pile of cash that he got from selling a lot of stocks last year near the top.

So now, the institutional money managers are increasingly finding themselves forced to cover shorts or buy at higher and higher prices, otherwise they'll risk reporting subpar performance (due to holding too much cash) at the end of a SP500 BULL RALLY for H1 2025. The money managers will get fired by their bosses if they underperform.

I can identify with these particular money manager group, because we felt more risk averse to uncertainty from unprecedented Trump tariffs, and are holding sizeable cash/T-bills/USTs. However I don't have a boss to report to, so I don't have to worry about getting fired!

 

[stanlawj]

Google crash...! Big ugly red bar.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/07/alp...t-apple-may-add-ai-search-to-its-browser.html

Alphabet shares sink 8% after Apple’s Cue says AI will replace search engines​