MAS holds off on monetary easing, S’pore dollar soars
Stance consistent with benign inflation outlook, growth prospects for 2015: Authority
Published: 4:16 AM, April 15, 2015
SINGAPORE — The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) yesterday refrained from easing policy further, saying the improving global growth outlook would help underpin the economy, sending the local dollar surging against the greenback.
MAS will retain a modest and gradual appreciation of the Singapore dollar, the central bank said after its regular policy meeting, adding that the stance is seen to be consistent with the benign inflation outlook and moderate growth prospects for the whole of 2015, as well as appropriate for ensuring medium-term price stability in the economy.
“The Singapore economy is evolving as envisaged in the January monetary policy statement … External price pressures should be contained, while domestic cost pass-through to consumer prices is expected to be moderate this year. Beyond the near term, underlying cost and price pressures could pick up, given the continued tightness in the labour market,” MAS said in its policy statement.
The Singapore dollar jumped 0.8 per cent, the most in at least two weeks, to S$1.3598 versus its US counterpart in heavy trading as traders scrambled to unwind short positions. Against the Malaysian ringgit, the Singapore dollar surged 0.7 per cent to RM2.7220.
In the days ahead of the meeting, economists were divided over whether MAS would loosen policy further after an off-schedule easing in January. The local currency had plunged to multi-year lows against the greenback following the January move.
Coupled with expectations that the United States Federal Reserve will raise benchmark borrowing costs around mid-year, the Singapore Interbank Offered Rate (SIBOR) punched above the 1 per cent level for the first time in more than six years.
Economists noted that MAS’ decision yesterday to maintain monetary policy was accompanied by a more upbeat assessment of global growth conditions. And with the US dollar expected to continue strengthening against the local currency, the case for MAS to ease further was weakened.
“Core inflation has been quite sticky. Food prices continue to be high and the labour market remains tight. At the same time, the weaker Singapore dollar is translating into higher imported inflation because many importers pay their suppliers in US dollars, so their costs have increased and can increase further as the US dollar is expected to appreciate more,” said UOB economist Francis Tan.
While economists were divided on whether MAS would ease policy prior to yesterday’s announcement, many now seem to agree that the central bank will maintain its stance in its next policy meeting in October.
“We believe that the stronger and more confident language in the April statement concerning both inflation and growth suggests that the balance of risks is more firmly tilted towards higher inflation in the foreseeable future … We do not expect further changes to the policy band this year,” said HSBC economist Joseph Incalcaterra.