2020 market expectations and positioning

[coolhead]

holy crap.... 10yr bond yields down to 0.876%.

Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro

 

[coolhead]

They have to... Or else they get blamed.... Even though rate cut has no big impact anymore.... This isn't a liquidity crisis

but get blamed for what? though i believe it is a political move to cut rates, the whole world knows the fed can't do much in this scenario.

Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro

 

[d9_lives]

Fun fact. S&P500 started this year at 3,230. It is about -6% YTD. So u must have been doing something right compared to the investors holding S&P500 ETF. What's the secret to your success?

Frankly... I've no idea.
Am I seeing wrongly?
It's from ibkr, portfolio analysis.

https://ibb.co/7j2ZzLY
https://ibb.co/4MNSHD6

 

[DukeCS33]

Last night's fall was not surprising since we had established a lack of professional participation to buy while flagging the possbility of new supply when virus spread hits the headlines. Both the bulls and bears are slugging it out here with no clear winners. Both forces are strong as marked by the increased volume and wide price gyrations. However wide the price swings, I note that we have been having a series of inside days on high volume. The jury is yet out.There has been congestion around the 3000 level in the SP futures, a level that was resistance turned support on break above. However, given the bearish change of behaviour, I am inclined to think that this level would still be tested again and potentially break if the virus spread becomes more widespread. 10y UST yields are breaking lower and I would take the lead from this to maintain shorts in the equity markets.

There were a few reports last night highlighting that investors are seeking safe haven in Real estate. And we see this quite clearly in the Singapore Reit space. I would caution against getting carried away in this play as it is a very crowded trade. A rate cut does not benefit DPU directly as most Reits would have locked their interest rate liabilities into fix rate loans. In any case, the mark to market losses on these fixed rate swaps would rise as interest rate falls - the interest rate expense bill would not decrease unless the Reit has taken up a new loan for a new project - yes new projects. Refinancing of existing loans mean that the REIT would have to pay up on the mark to market losses on their fixed interest rate swaps and reducing their DPU. For investors piling into REITs, it would be a call that the crisis would not last long enough to impact underlying REIT tenants. a prolonged slowdown in business or recession may see REIT catch up or exceed the broader market underperformance as they would have fallen from a higher perch. That said, the prospect of more rate cuts may well see more and more funds seeking haven into REITS in the near term and it would be sometime before the Reit space turns down on recessionary fears.

 

[DukeCS33]

Hard Times are coming for DCA and Dividend peeps......

Thise nice looking dividend looks like a trap......

But I believe in three years, things will likely to be better....

Not really - they are very long term investors that can probably withstand swings in their portfolios. I think only the high net worth individuals who leveraged up to play the carry yield game may get margin calls and get suffer some downside if their underlying is into volatile assets.

 

[NewInvestor]

Last night's fall was not surprising since we had established a lack of professional participation to buy while flagging the possbility of new supply when virus spread hits the headlines. Both the bulls and bears are slugging it out here with no clear winners. Both forces are strong as marked by the increased volume and wide price gyrations. However wide the price swings, I note that we have been having a series of inside days on high volume. The jury is yet out.There has been congestion around the 3000 level in the SP futures, a level that was resistance turned support on break above. However, given the bearish change of behaviour, I am inclined to think that this level would still be tested again and potentially break if the virus spread becomes more widespread. 10y UST yields are breaking lower and I would take the lead from this to maintain shorts in the equity markets.

There were a few reports last night highlighting that investors are seeking safe haven in Real estate. And we see this quite clearly in the Singapore Reit space. I would caution against getting carried away in this play as it is a very crowded trade. A rate cut does not benefit DPU directly as most Reits would have locked their interest rate liabilities into fix rate loans. In any case, the mark to market losses on these fixed rate swaps would rise as interest rate falls - the interest rate expense bill would not decrease unless the Reit has taken up a new loan for a new project - yes new projects. Refinancing of existing loans mean that the REIT would have to pay up on the mark to market losses on their fixed interest rate swaps and reducing their DPU. For investors piling into REITs, it would be a call that the crisis would not last long enough to impact underlying REIT tenants. a prolonged slowdown in business or recession may see REIT catch up or exceed the broader market underperformance as they would have fallen from a higher perch. That said, the prospect of more rate cuts may well see more and more funds seeking haven into REITS in the near term and it would be sometime before the Reit space turns down on recessionary fears.

Duke's postings are always insightful. Yet another good one. Thank you.

 

[Newbyib]

Frankly... I've no idea.
Am I seeing wrongly?
It's from ibkr, portfolio analysis.

https://ibb.co/7j2ZzLY
https://ibb.co/4MNSHD6

Most probably from the dive in Sgd against usd?

 

[theMKR]

1 day up, 1 day down

yesterday down, today up!

ding dong

correction oscillation

flipping prata

chiong arh!

 

[coolhead]

1 day up, 1 day down

yesterday down, today up!

ding dong

correction oscillation

flipping prata

chiong arh!

shorting tsla?

Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro

 

[Newbyib]

Not really - they are very long term investors that can probably withstand swings in their portfolios. I think only the high net worth individuals who leveraged up to play the carry yield game may get margin calls and get suffer some downside if their underlying is into volatile assets.

It appears that this may be a slow grind down - different from the previous ones that I have experienced in 2000, 2003 and 2007

 

[theMKR]

shorting tsla?

Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro

i close tsla by buying at the pre-market super high of 817 on wed and it dropped instantly down all the way.

i not going to short ever again la, today i going long.

baccarat theory of ding-dong, up-down-up-down- today must be UP.

later going to go big or go bust

 

[DukeCS33]

Regardless of the selloff in the indices, there are always stocks that would stand out. I particularly like stocks that stand to benefit from underlying economic slowdown because they have a strong competitive moat that takes advantage of existing causes of slowdown. The case is made stronger when the stock is under a period of accumulation and is a play on wcykoff's works. Take a look at VIRT. This is one stock that has ticked the boxes for me. However, please note that I am not recommending this stock as a buy but merely flagging it as an example that one cannot merely look at technicals when investing - the underlying business model is very important as well.

 

[havetheveryfun]

Will limster unlock his warchest now that STI ETF is under $2.99?

 

[coolhead]

i close tsla by buying at the pre-market super high of 817 on wed and it dropped instantly down all the way.

i not going to short ever again la, today i going long.

baccarat theory of ding-dong, up-down-up-down- today must be UP.

later going to go big or go bust

haiz bro.....

Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro

 

[DukeCS33]

It appears that this may be a slow grind down - different from the previous ones that I have experienced in 2000, 2003 and 2007

Depends on how long this virus is going to linger. Many has made a comparison that the covid 19 would follow the path of SARs and rendered dormant when the weather turns warmer. I do not know enough about this but would not rule out ANY possibilities. And if, (touch wood) the virus lingers beyond summer and continues to wreck havoc, then those who bought the dip would be stopped out and that may result in a worse sell off. That's why I do not advocate buying as prices come down as one is participating in a downtrend. I do not mind missing the bottom while waiting for prices to run up 10% before dipping in. This is hard on investor's psychology as most are wired to buy when they perceive a bargain and that's when prices come down. But the price for that immediate sense of comfort is one that leads to more anguish when prices go down even more.

I had a peek at the STI technicals this morning. It looks ugly. And if the pivot at 2950 gives way, it will slump all the way down to the 2750 mark. If this is going to be virus headline driven, we have not seen the peak in infection yet.

 

[d9_lives]

Most probably from the dive in Sgd against usd?

Nah....Most prob. due to my luck, discipline and my lovely balls of steel.

 

[MrHighlander]

Wah STI just blew past 2.99 without a sweat

Posted from MaMaMia HardwareZone Forums app

 

[Majestic12]

Hard Times are coming for DCA and Dividend peeps......

Thise nice looking dividend looks like a trap......

But I believe in three years, things will likely to be better....

The problem with most people is that they have to withstand being punched psychologically for the next three years. Mentally it is difficult for most to endure, especially when your equity portfolio is a sizeable component of your net worth even though it is for the long term. Hence selling right at the bottom is common.

 

[Majestic12]

holy crap.... 10yr bond yields down to 0.876%.

Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro

Real rates are already at 0% signalling a recession.

 

[Majestic12]

Regardless of the selloff in the indices, there are always stocks that would stand out. I particularly like stocks that stand to benefit from underlying economic slowdown because they have a strong competitive moat that takes advantage of existing causes of slowdown. The case is made stronger when the stock is under a period of accumulation and is a play on wcykoff's works. Take a look at VIRT. This is one stock that has ticked the boxes for me. However, please note that I am not recommending this stock as a buy but merely flagging it as an example that one cannot merely look at technicals when investing - the underlying business model is very important as well.

If the market continues to sell off, some of these stocks could slide further too, albeit less so?

If you don’t mind sharing, are there any particular sectors you are examining?