2022 Market Sentiment & Positioning

[TehSi99]

I did one more round of buying tonight. Basically I want to finish my buying for June this week or next week.

It will be interesting to see whether those that are waiting for market to crash due to QT will get their wish.

On the other hand, I am getting more and more optimistic about a summer rally.

I am hedging my bets. While I'm not spending my warchest, all my free cash flow is going to board the boat so that I won't get FOMO if the boat starts to sail.

The more people are expecting the market to move in one direction, the more it will move in opposite direction, at least in short term. If not, how the MM trapped retailers to make money?

 

[limster]

Times like this make me recall the Vezelover saga when he correctly called the bottom and V-shaped turning point in 2020. There will always be permabears and occasionally permabulls.

Because of QT, recession (ironically, recession could make Fed postpone QT and markets will rally again) are in play, one cannot rule out a down market, but I remain cautiously optimistic that the probability of upside is higher than probability of downside.

Interesting that markets this week/futures have started off red but turn green later in the afternoon.

 

[aurvandil]

Times like this make me recall the Vezelover saga when he correctly called the bottom and V-shaped turning point in 2020. There will always be permabears and occasionally permabulls.

I am a permabull.

If you are doing DCA, you are also by definition a permabull.

 

[d9_lives]

It looks like an excellent year to dca.

 

[churnmaster]

It looks like an excellent year to dca.

Yes, its an excellent year to play the swing trade on either side while slowly adding to your position.

 

[Coolboy82]

I am a permabull.

If you are doing DCA, you are also by definition a permabull.

Wow, you really talk Damn Big. By Definition, a PermaBull, is a Gambler. I see why u so Cocky. GAMBLERS ARE COCKY. Classic. Absolutely classic level 1 investing skill. . .

 

[aurvandil]

Wow, you really talk Damn Big. By Definition, a PermaBull, is a Gambler. I see why u so Cocky. GAMBLERS ARE COCKY. Classic. Absolutely classic level 1 investing skill. . .

I have completely no trading/investment skills and constantly lose money.

 

[RedsYWNA]

I am a permabull.

If you are doing DCA, you are also by definition a permabull.

As per Jim Cramer, "There is always a bull market somewhere. You just have to find it"

 

[Coolboy82]

As per Jim Cramer, "There is always a bull market somewhere. You just have to find it"

Jim Cramer is just like those youtuber / influencer...

 

[limster]

Jim Cramer is just like those youtuber / influencer...

https://www.bloomberg.com/professio...or-an-inverse-jim-cramer-etf-after-arkk-call/
Now all we need is an inverse Jim Cramer ETF!

 

[aurvandil]

https://www.bloomberg.com/professio...or-an-inverse-jim-cramer-etf-after-arkk-call/
Now all we need is an inverse Jim Cramer ETF!

There is a negativity bias associated with Jim Cramer. People remember his bad calls but forget his good calls.

https://www.verywellmind.com/negative-bias-4589618

 

[churnmaster]

As per Jim Cramer, "There is always a bull market somewhere. You just have to find it"

Yes, USD/JPY and Energy sector

 

[RedsYWNA]

Yes, USD/JPY and Energy sector

I also short JPY, and long energy via selling puts..... But rather cautious on energy, as the Ukraine situation can turn pretty fast.

 

[churnmaster]

I also short JPY, and long energy via selling puts..... But rather cautious on energy, as the Ukraine situation can turn pretty fast.

I din't have any JPY position .... Energy sector, Yes initially thru XLE, followed by BP & Shell and lately BNO & UNG. But I'm out now since about 2 weeks.

 

[ctan84]

I did one more round of buying tonight. Basically I want to finish my buying for June this week or next week.

It will be interesting to see whether those that are waiting for market to crash due to QT will get their wish.

On the other hand, I am getting more and more optimistic about a summer rally.

I am hedging my bets. While I'm not spending my warchest, all my free cash flow is going to board the boat so that I won't get FOMO if the boat starts to sail.

After last night's data, do you think a summer rally is still coming?

 

[limster]

After last night's data, do you think a summer rally is still coming?

looking forward to end of the year, I still feel there is more upside than downside. I am planning to buy more if market drops on Monday.

There is definitely fear, but at the same time there is plenty of liquidity and cash sloshing about. (Cat B COE crossed $100k already....) What are the holders of large cash balances going to do with the cash when there is high inflation? Probably buy the dip / sector rotation?

While I still haven't touched my warchest, at a certain point (maybe 10% down from current levels which should reset us almost back to the start of 2021, depending on which index...) I'll consider using warchest money. And I'm probably going to keep my car for another year though I had planned to change it this year.

 

[pcuser123]

looking forward to end of the year, I still feel there is more upside than downside. I am planning to buy more if market drops on Monday.

There is definitely fear, but at the same time there is plenty of liquidity and cash sloshing about. (Cat B COE crossed $100k already....) What are the holders of large cash balances going to do with the cash when there is high inflation? Probably buy the dip / sector rotation?

While I still haven't touched my warchest, at a certain point (maybe 10% down from current levels which should reset us almost back to the start of 2021, depending on which index...) I'll consider using warchest money. And I'm probably going to keep my car for another year though I had planned to change it this year.

If the horizon is toward the end of 2022, the US might make a rise sometime. As to whether it is going to be permanent, hard to tell at the moment because how the QT would affect the market is still not very clear. After all, QT is still not fully tested if it would work properly.

Someone questioned if the Fed fund rate hike would cause a recession as pointed to the recession in the 1970s where there were multiple Fed rate hikes. The situation then was much different from today because the Fed rate is super low and unlikely to affect business costs.

https://skyjuiceiswater.blogspot.com/2022/05/the-rate-hike-and-quantitative.html#jumpspot1

 

[pcuser123]

Having said the above, we expected DOW will make new lows in the meantime.

https://skyjuiceiswater.blogspot.com/2022/02/useful-trade-trading-patterns-occurred.html#jumpspot12

 

[CaptainTeo]

Price war with china stop. Usa full blast aim russia now.

 

[churnmaster]

looking forward to end of the year, I still feel there is more upside than downside. I am planning to buy more if market drops on Monday.

There is definitely fear, but at the same time there is plenty of liquidity and cash sloshing about. (Cat B COE crossed $100k already....) What are the holders of large cash balances going to do with the cash when there is high inflation? Probably buy the dip / sector rotation?

While I still haven't touched my warchest, at a certain point (maybe 10% down from current levels which should reset us almost back to the start of 2021, depending on which index...) I'll consider using warchest money. And I'm probably going to keep my car for another year though I had planned to change it this year.

I’m looking forward to Sep / Oct or earlier if S&P 500 gets closer to 3400.

Holders of large cash typically deploy their funds into LT gov sec and then take leveraged bets (futures & options) in equities. They don’t worry about losing out on dividends when risk free investments pay more than the dividends on index ETF.