Not saying USD is not a safe currency for some especially the US traders but not so in the eyes of the Chinese.would u like to use your reasoning to explain the strength of the dollar in 2020 then when interest rate went to 0? interest rate or not, supply or not, USD is the top most safe haven during crisis, even better than gold. investors only want to hold usd when they are scared, not even treasuries.
USD was rising since 2018. That was just a few months after Fed started up the first QT @ the end of 2017. There must be a shortage of dollar supply at that time. QT ended around the end of 2019 but dollar did not fall; not until Fed pumped USD700 bil in March 2020.
https://skyjuiceiswater.blogspot.com/2022/05/the-rate-hike-and-quantitative.html