2022 Market Sentiment & Positioning

pcuser123

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would u like to use your reasoning to explain the strength of the dollar in 2020 then when interest rate went to 0? interest rate or not, supply or not, USD is the top most safe haven during crisis, even better than gold. investors only want to hold usd when they are scared, not even treasuries.
Not saying USD is not a safe currency for some especially the US traders but not so in the eyes of the Chinese.

USD was rising since 2018. That was just a few months after Fed started up the first QT @ the end of 2017. There must be a shortage of dollar supply at that time. QT ended around the end of 2019 but dollar did not fall; not until Fed pumped USD700 bil in March 2020.

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https://skyjuiceiswater.blogspot.com/2022/05/the-rate-hike-and-quantitative.html
 

Mephist0pheLes

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Pardon me for my ignorance, I don't understand why its wrong to buy dips ? you are getting them at a good price. Does it really matter if you are investing for the long term of minimum of 10 years and above.

You buy the dip at % percentage based on the total sum you have for investing. After that, you just continue with your normal DCA schedule.

Appreciate your reply. Thanks.

some ppl in this forum have crystal ball. they only believe in catching the bottom. avg ppl like us that cant see into the future and buy the dip are stupid to them.
 

limster

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I bought ETFs on Monday and Euro Banks (with LatAm exposure) on Tuesday (SAN and BBVA), so today I can sit and watch for the Fed announcement with less FOMO..... However, Frasers Log Trust didn't hit my target price so I couldn't buy that... 😅
 

d5dude

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For all you macro experts out there, please help me understand this. US inflation is at 40 year highs. US stock market is in bear market territory. In spite of this, US dollar is at record highs compared to other low inflation countries like China. Why is this so? Shouldn't yuan be soaring to record highs given that China inflation is only 2%?

RMB is not a freely convertible currency and China's capital account is closed, the exchange rate is mostly determined by the PBoC, not the market. Also I dun think there is any direct relationship between inflation and exchange rate, Japan's inflation rate is also only around 2%, but the Yen has literally crashed in recent months.
 

d5dude

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This SSI Forum has been increasingly slow and quiet over the last few weeks. Not sure if others have noticed this. Previous active posters pumping up tech have gone quite quiet or disappeared.

There are still some looking to buy the dip so there is some money left on the sidelines.

It's a sign of the times, and I guess once no one talks about buying anymore, is a good time to start dipping in.

Reminiscent of the early stages of the slow grind from 2000-2002. Dip buyers keep buying in, market rebounded , and then kept going down from there. The selling stops after all the dip buyers are exhausted by 2003. After all, back then who expected the bear market could last 2 years and many investors totally stayed away from the market for years .

Their stocks are down 90%, surely no more mood to log in to browse this forum now.
 

d5dude

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Pardon me for my ignorance, I don't understand why its wrong to buy dips ? you are getting them at a good price. Does it really matter if you are investing for the long term of minimum of 10 years and above.

You buy the dip at % percentage based on the total sum you have for investing. After that, you just continue with your normal DCA schedule.

Appreciate your reply. Thanks.

Everyone is a long term investor until the market goes down. Very few people will continue to buy into a bear market for years.
 

kickass22

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Everyone is a long term investor until the market goes down. Very few people will continue to buy into a bear market for years.
Thanks for the reply.

I was doing the same in 2008 when I was much younger . At that time I was single and I put in all my money in and deployed 80% of my paycheck into the market every couple of months.

So I guess, I was able to withstand market going down , if I recall 40% and I just didnt sell and kept on buying fear and faith. ( With a lot of help from reading up on what I should do and not do and dicussing with like minded folks)

This time around, again its a very different market environment, with the situation and multiple reasons for the stock market drop . I am just following the simple philosophy as always.

However, this time I am way older and not single and have dependents and the sum is definitely larger than when I was single.

Hopefully I am able to control my fear and keep on chugging along and the simple philosophy works.
 

iceblendedchoc

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Thanks for the reply.

I was doing the same in 2008 when I was much younger . At that time I was single and I put in all my money in and deployed 80% of my paycheck into the market every couple of months.

So I guess, I was able to withstand market going down , if I recall 40% and I just didnt sell and kept on buying fear and faith. ( With a lot of help from reading up on what I should do and not do and dicussing with like minded folks)

This time around, again its a very different market environment, with the situation and multiple reasons for the stock market drop . I am just following the simple philosophy as always.

However, this time I am way older and not single and have dependents and the sum is definitely larger than when I was single.

Hopefully I am able to control my fear and keep on chugging along and the simple philosophy works.
I know the feeling, hence I drop the bulk of my money into dcaing in a global etf instead every month with the paycheck to avoid a situation of oh it will go lower I will buy next month and I will keep on proscinating for years without buying anything.
 

aurvandil

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For those who play metals before, what do you make of the gold / silver price? With 8.6% inflation, bear stock market and crypto run, it should be taking off. It is however just sitting there and not moving.
 

soneat

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I bought ETFs on Monday and Euro Banks (with LatAm exposure) on Tuesday (SAN and BBVA), so today I can sit and watch for the Fed announcement with less FOMO..... However, Frasers Log Trust didn't hit my target price so I couldn't buy that... 😅
No worries about FLCT, there's always going to be another chance - probably 6 weeks later during the next hike. Buy @ a price you are happy with =)
 

limster

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No worries about FLCT, there's always going to be another chance - probably 6 weeks later during the next hike. Buy @ a price you are happy with =)

Yes definitely - better to stick with a plan and carry it out, and not have feelings of FOMO 😅

I am hoping that interest hike is positive for banks, and that banks like SAN and BBVA will outperform FLCT from now to year end. After all, REITs will have to start paying banks more interest for their variable rate debt and whenever they need to roll over existing debt! 💲
 

zzTiny

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I bought more cspx yesterday using my emergency money since my pay will come in 12 more day. I know its not good but I can't help it!!! More, more, I want more. :spin:
 

churnmaster

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Yes definitely - better to stick with a plan and carry it out, and not have feelings of FOMO 😅

I am hoping that interest hike is positive for banks, and that banks like SAN and BBVA will outperform FLCT from now to year end. After all, REITs will have to start paying banks more interest for their variable rate debt and whenever they need to roll over existing debt! 💲
I ended up buying CLR, A REIT and A iTrust. If they ralliy 3-4% in the next 2 months will sell some while holding the rest and incase if they drop from here will buy more. FLCT some other time.
 

churnmaster

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For those who play metals before, what do you make of the gold / silver price? With 8.6% inflation, bear stock market and crypto run, it should be taking off. It is however just sitting there and not moving.
Yes, they have not been moving. The increase in yields have pushed SLV lower by around 20% over the last two months. Surprisingly, the behavior below 200 dma has exactly been the same as equities. GLD much more steady and very very slowly trending higher. Better opportunities some where else I guess.
 

boroangel

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For my US equity portfolio I am up about 9.9% YTD and down 1.1% on a year basis.

Contrary to what some are doing, I am not adding more to equities and have stopped since late last year, last purchase was a bunch of US Permian producers.

30+% of my portfolio are in energy companies and I am looking to liquidate them gradually the next 3 to 4 months depending on how the guidance will be on the next quarter earnings call.

Have sold Continental and KMI a few days ago and looking to let go of EOG and PSX this month. At the moment still keeping APA, PBR, OXY, FANG as PE ratios are low, FCF looks to be strong for another few months. However, am looking nervously at the road ahead for energy so am planning to DCA into inverse 3X ETF on XLE every month going forward.

Keeping financials like MS, JPM, SCHW, still in green but prices have gone down a lot over last few months.

As for the rest of the portfolio like SPACs, tech, HOOD, PYPL, all super super deep red. Prices have gone down so much I just don't see the point of selling. Down 60 to 80% on some of these.

Plan to get back into the market DCA after August or September. I just don't think this is gonna be a V shape recovery, might take a while to flatten out and stay there.
 

limster

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looks like I'm going shopping tonight! 🛍️🛒🎁

what is surprising is that FLCT is still green despite Euro and US markets looking pretty red (i.e. US futures in Euro market)
 

ctan84

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looks like I'm going shopping tonight! 🛍️🛒🎁

what is surprising is that FLCT is still green despite Euro and US markets looking pretty red (i.e. US futures in Euro market)
Why would FLCT react to redness in those 2 other markets?
 

churnmaster

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For my US equity portfolio I am up about 9.9% YTD and down 1.1% on a year basis.

Contrary to what some are doing, I am not adding more to equities and have stopped since late last year, last purchase was a bunch of US Permian producers.

30+% of my portfolio are in energy companies and I am looking to liquidate them gradually the next 3 to 4 months depending on how the guidance will be on the next quarter earnings call.

Have sold Continental and KMI a few days ago and looking to let go of EOG and PSX this month. At the moment still keeping APA, PBR, OXY, FANG as PE ratios are low, FCF looks to be strong for another few months. However, am looking nervously at the road ahead for energy so am planning to DCA into inverse 3X ETF on XLE every month going forward.

Keeping financials like MS, JPM, SCHW, still in green but prices have gone down a lot over last few months.

As for the rest of the portfolio like SPACs, tech, HOOD, PYPL, all super super deep red. Prices have gone down so much I just don't see the point of selling. Down 60 to 80% on some of these.

Plan to get back into the market DCA after August or September. I just don't think this is gonna be a V shape recovery, might take a while to flatten out and stay there.
Well done 👍🏻 Quite an elaborate plan.

My equities have done well so far however got hit by adverse moves in SLV. Still positive for the year. Some of the short options should be showing losses if the IV spikes a lot, though the underlying well OTM. Plan to scale up the swing trade in QQQ as the market trends lower over the next few weeks / months.
 
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