2022 Market Sentiment & Positioning

[yumsang]

this inflation is also caused by supply chain issues, "stuck container terminal" and labor shortage, thanks to covid. Like clogged arteries causing high blood pressure .

 

[revhappy]

this inflation is also caused by supply chain issues, "stuck harbor" and labor shortage, thanks to covid. Like clogged arteries causing high blood pressure .

Yes. I think the FED also believes this. But then I think the reason they pivoted is, they would rather see some of the irrational exuberance go away now than wait for it to be too late. I think looking at the markets right now, the irrational exuberance is already gone and now the stage is set for fear. I think think the Fed has already done its job. Now they will just walk a tight rope of keeping things balanced at this level, so they will not reduce the balancesheet, but they will still raise rates. So equities will be volatile up and down but I expect markets to just digest the superb gains made in the last 2 years and stay around this level.

 

[Lex1989]

So now can buy what?

 

[revhappy]

So now can buy what?

Easier to buy a diversified index. If you buy individual stocks or sectors, there is a risk of going wrong and then waiting for a long time for recovery.

 

[ctan84]

Easier to buy a diversified index. If you buy individual stocks or sectors, there is a risk of going wrong and then waiting for a long time for recovery.

$100 cant buy much. Just be a man n pay up the bet lah. Its $100, not $1k or $10k.

 

[andyhtc]

Inflation surge could push the Fed into more than four rate hikes this year, Goldman Sachs says​

PUBLISHED SUN, JAN 23 20221:10 PM EST

Traders are pricing in nearly a 95% chance of a rate increase at the March meeting, and a more than 85% chance of four moves in all of 2022, according to CME data.

However, the market also is now starting to tilt to a fifth hike this year, which would be the most aggressive Fed that investors have seen going back to the turn of the century and the efforts to tamp down the dot-com bubble. Chances of a fifth rate increase have moved to nearly 60%, according to the CME’s FedWatch gauge.

In addition to hiking rates, the Fed also is winding down its monthly bond-buying program, with March as the current date to end an effort that has more than doubled the central bank balance sheet to just shy of $9 trillion. While some market participants have speculated that the Fed could shut down the program at next week’s meeting, Goldman does not expect that to happen.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/23/inf...-rate-hikes-this-year-goldman-sachs-says.html

 

[andyhtc]

I expect a lot of turbulence this year. Inflation goes up and return comes down

 

[limster]

I expect CNBC to have all sorts of sensational clickbait headlines about market crash and inflation this year.

I think they know that negative news increases their readership more than positive news

 

[yumsang]

got that Mar 2020 sexcitement

 

[paladin]

I think some of these 50% crash predictors must have shorted the indices big like Bill Arkman in Feb 2020. Probably bought a lot of puts.

I think indices will be range bound this year, likely fall in 1st half and then recover in 2nd half once uncertainty over interest hike is over.

 

[Hello_Kitty]

I think some of these 50% crash predictors must have shorted the indices big like Bill Arkman in Feb 2020. Probably bought a lot of puts.

I think indices will be range bound this year, likely fall in 1st half and then recover in 2nd half once uncertainty over interest hike is over.

but whether can recover back to what has been lost is another question

 

[churnmaster]

I think some of these 50% crash predictors must have shorted the indices big like Bill Arkman in Feb 2020. Probably bought a lot of puts.

I think indices will be range bound this year, likely fall in 1st half and then recover in 2nd half once uncertainty over interest hike is over.

https://www.finra.org/investors/learn-to-invest/advanced-investing/margin-statistics
Have a look at the margin debt nos and it’s growth over the years, courtesy QE . . Even if part of this gets unwound equity valuations will get deflated substantially. Manage your risks appropriately and if possible protect your portfolio.

 

[wutawa]

Easier to buy a diversified index. If you buy individual stocks or sectors, there is a risk of going wrong and then waiting for a long time for recovery.

My etf crashed from $480 to $447 after recommending many frens to buy. I need to run road alrdy.

 

[boroangel]

https://www.finra.org/investors/learn-to-invest/advanced-investing/margin-statistics
Have a look at the margin debt nos and it’s growth over the years, courtesy QE . . Even if part of this gets unwound equity valuations will get deflated substantially. Manage your risks appropriately and if possible protect your portfolio.

Thanks for sharing this .

almost 4X that of 2013 pretty scary

 

[revhappy]

The fear and greed index is very confused, havent seen it like this for a long time. 3 indicators are extreme greed and 3 are extreme fear so the average is fear.

https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

 

[yumsang]

seems like an abyss

 

[limster]

I bought a little more VWRD and LSPU yesterday as the market went south.
I will resist buying todoay as I normally don't buy on Fridays due to short covering etc, and will resume on Monday. Hope the sale continues.

this seems to be a 'stealth' correction as no one is talking about it. Usually all the bears will be out in the forum talking about selling everything

Mondays are usually a better time to buy than Fridays
Will buy a little bit of ETFs tonight and get ready to average down every week.

 

[platee]

I prepare go Holland alr. Sibei jialat

 

[ctan84]

I prepare go Holland alr. Sibei jialat

What stocks you holding on bro.

 

[zerodark40]

My etf crashed from $480 to $447 after recommending many frens to buy. I need to run road alrdy.

Cspx is life! Thinking if it's time to deploy OA