2022 Market Sentiment & Positioning

wutawa

wutawa

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3dfxplayer said:
The stock markets is essentially a voting machine in the short run so human behaviour matters more than fundamentals.
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the funny thing is i am always trying to keep my emotions away and rely on my calculations while investing. hehe
 
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zzTiny

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ts-raise-stakes-for-traders-buying-into-rally

Too much greed everywhere., whether is US or China market.

Whats more important is to believe that the environment will remain as the best place to innovate and to do business. Good environment, Good business, Good market. I interlinked them all three.

The market always rely on two things, Sentiments/feelings and New information.
 
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yumsang

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hope whatever went down can rocket again
 
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revhappy

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yumsang said:
hope whatever went down and rocket again
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It is a real bloodbath. A lot of those pandemic beneficiaries are now at pre pandemic levels! The whole narrative of disruption, fast growth is now being totally thrown out, in the face of FED rate hikes.

After so much damage, have to wonder, if it can get any worse.
 
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yumsang

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2 years ago "print" money and cut rate to save the market
now wana stop "printing" , rate hike and balance shiat roll off
back to market crashing .... huat's the deliverable?
 
boroangel

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revhappy said:
Hi, yeah I am totally into index investing, but with a tilt away from from MSCI ACWI.
I have split my equity allocation into 3 equal parts:
1)33% Home country allocation(in my case India)
2)33% Asia pacific ex Japan or Emerging markets
3)33% MSCI ACWI

I was inspired from this Boglehead study, which kind of backtests how non US investors would have fared by investing in different markets, home country vs non home country.

https://www.bogleheads.org/blog/2020/03/02/50-years-of-investing-in-the-world-part-3/
They finally concluded that a 20% tilt away from MSCI ACWI would be kind of middleground, based on the fact that we wont know whether home country will do well or not. 20% tilt means, you take your home country weight in the ACWI and then add 20% to it. In case of US investors it would be like 60+20 so they are supposed to be 80% in US and 20% in non US. In case of SG and India both are like very small weights, so it would basically mean 21-23% in home country.

I have further added another bucket of Asia pacific ex japan or EM, so I am kind of significantly tilted away from the ACWI. Last year was bad for Asia and made me wonder why I did so much tilt towards Asia. But then I like the Ray Dalio way of thinking in terms of uncorrelated assets. We see already this year Asia isnt falling so much, while US is falling. So, it kind of keeps my portfolio stable, hopefully.
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Thanks for sharing. Amazing to see your journey from investing to a believer in DCA into ETFs. I bet your portfolio will beat most of the fund managers out there in the long run.

After years of underperformance in my individual stocks compared to the indexes, I am now a firm believer that no way I can beat or even match the S&P 500 over the long term. Better to just DCA into these indexes over time ,with the occasional dapple into some individual stocks for fun (small amounts of course compared to what is going into the index ETFs).
 
revhappy

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yumsang said:
2 years ago "print" money and cut rate to save the market
now wana stop "printing" , rate hike and balance shiat roll off
back to market crashing .... huat's the deliverable?
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I think FED is doing a lot of jawboning right now to prevent the market from over heating. But I feel inflation is peaking and will cool off from here. The fiscal impulse of 2020 and 2021 is not there any more and consumer sentiment is much more muted now. So I really doubt if we are going to have a wage spiral and the 1970s kind of inflation. That is my base case and I am using this correction to fix my equity allocation.

Most of the damage of the irrational exuberance of 2020 and 2021 is already done. Just look at ARKK, SPACs, crypto all are bleeding. The main index itself will probably correct a bit and go sideways for sometime, but still makes sense to keep your asset allocation and stay the course.
 
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ctan84

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revhappy said:
I think FED is doing a lot of jawboning right now to prevent the market from over heating. But I feel inflation is peaking and will cool off from here. The fiscal impulse of 2020 and 2021 is not there any more and consumer sentiment is much more muted now. So I really doubt if we are going to have a wage spiral and the 1970s kind of inflation. That is my base case and I am using this correction to fix my equity allocation.
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Remember to pay up the $100 bet that you lost hoh. Don't be a bad loser.
 
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yumsang

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will continue to nibble those big tech like nvda, msft, amd, tsm and tsla to keep 1-2 years then see how.
 
avviicc

avviicc

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Lex1989 said:
as mention
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The FED has already achieved what they want without raising rates :)

By "talking" about increasing rate aggressively they have already allow the share market to auto correct to a more reasonable level and dampen ppl willingness to spend their $$$...so ppl will start cutting down on their spending thus demand goes down and inflation may be curbed.

I wun be surprised that inflation will start to drop then in the end maybe interest rate hike will be twice only and then share market bounce back
 
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