2023 Market Sentiment & Positioning

[theMKR]

Its actually not bad if you compound it for 30 years, which is basically the primary objective of passive investors, who are usually not people who are looking to turn 10k into 10m in 2 years.

Active management can make one very rich thru picking the right 20 bagger stock and market timing, but it can also make one very poor, statistically the latter is far more probable... also dun forget the fact that active management consumes TIME, which can be used to generate income or for other leisure activities, there is an opportunity cost here.

10k to 10m is too powerful la, maybe chicken genius that kind bah

but then 10k to 12.8k is too slow.....
actually at 28% one would need 28years at 28% compounding y-o-y to reach 10m......

maybe like double ur money every year would be good

 

[d5dude]

10k to 10m is too powerful la, maybe chicken genius that kind bah

but then 10k to 12.8k is too slow.....
actually at 28% one would need 28years at 28% compounding y-o-y to reach 10m......

maybe like double ur money every year would be good

You can double your money in 1 min, just go RWS and bet on black or red.

 

[DevilPlate]

S&P500 is still up 28% (total return and in SGD terms) since Jan 2020 (pre covid crash), IWDA is also up a respectable 25% so stocks are broadly higher since 2020, only bonds are down because they were in a massive bubble due to central bank buying.

You mean buy one lump sum on Jan 2020.
Not sure what will be the result if split the purchase into 24 months starting from Jan 2020.

So one lump sum investment is very subjected to market timing.

 

[DevilPlate]

rather than discuss in the abstract, I have started monthly DCA of 3 counters:
Comfort Delgro
Capitaland Ascott Trust
Singtel.

At the end of the year, we'll know whether I crashed and burned!

Interesting choice:
Whats your DD thesis for Ascott and Singtel?

 

[d5dude]

You mean buy one lump sum on Jan 2020.
Not sure what will be the result if split the purchase into 24 months starting from Jan 2020.

Should be positive since the market is still much higher than it was back in Jan 2020.

 

[theMKR]

You can double your money in 1 min, just go RWS and bet on black or red.

or in event trader, yes or no, no need pay 150bux levy...

but seriously, think 30years is a very long time....

 

[1.koln]

or in event trader, yes or no, no need pay 150bux levy...

but seriously, think 30years is a very long time....

If you want big returns, you have to take greater risk and research small-mid cap stocks

Even mega caps with high growth will have limited returns due to their sheer size and diminishing returns (Msft, Amazon)

 

[DevilPlate]

I know of someone who bought tons of long dated call options on SPY & QQQ during covid crash and make a lot as a result.

 

[limster]

my experience with recessions is that the more people scream about it, the less likely that it will happen. also, wars rarely cause recession - when was the last recession that took place during a war? Manufacturing ammo needs a lot of raw materials and machinery, not to mention building ballons and $400,000 missiles to shoot down balloons. I am sad about the war but I am bullish on Australia!

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/24/ide...onanza-years-ahead-for-weapons-companies.html

 

[revhappy]

I am also doing automatic DCA of 6k each month. So my allocation should rise slowly towards 55-60% by the end of this year.

It has been 2 months now, since I started autopilot DCA and I haven't made any manual interventions. I am watching markets falling right now, but unless S&P500 goes below 3600, I don't think my allocation ratio will change much, from the current 52%. If I see that the ratio suddenly is down to like 48%, I will probably rebalance. Until then just let the autopilot continue.

 

[limster]

It has been 2 months now, since I started autopilot DCA and I haven't made any manual interventions. I am watching markets falling right now, but unless S&P500 goes below 3600, I don't think my allocation ratio will change much, from the current 52%. If I see that the ratio suddenly is down to like 48%, I will probably rebalance. Until then just let the autopilot continue.

My last DCA of S&P500 and Vanguard World was in Jan.

This month, I haven't bought yet because S&P500 went over 4,000. However, next week, if S&P500 maintains around 3,900, I'll do my regular DCA. Otherwise I may just use the money to buy Singapore stocks.

 

[elvintay07]

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/24/ide...onanza-years-ahead-for-weapons-companies.html

How to invest in Australia? Like nothing much lei

 

[limster]

How to invest in Australia? Like nothing much lei

I always thought that way till i attended one of those FSM fund manager dinners at some hotel and heard a Natixis fund manager talk about how their macro funds use currency pairs to express a view about global macro themes and also showed the correlation between currency pairs and macro themes.

I remembered him talking how he could express a view about commodity prices not by trading commodities but by trading certain currency pairs such as the Kroner and Ruble.

However, I'm not really into currency but that lead me to do some research on whether i could express a view on commodities by overweighting certain equity markets. After doing my own backtestings, I noted that certain equity markets had stronger correlations with commodities, so i exited my commodities ETF and replaced it with a Norway ETF NORW.

Most of the weapons manufacturers and those that directly benefit stock price are already too high, so I just trace the supply chain down to those that will indirectly benefit. I think Australia as a whole will benefit indirectly. So holding Australia ETF will give me exposure to both A$ and the Australia economy. Those who visit Australia regularly and pay attention will see how dependent the Australia economy (and property prices) are on mining.

One of the most interesting investing strategies I learnt from a free FSMOne hotel dinner was from a Natixis fund manager who mentioned how you can 'bet' or 'express a view' on a particular macro theme by looking at indirect correlations such as currency. So if you are bullish in oil, the fund manager says no need to buy oil futures, you can make money simply by holding Krone.

I did more research and realised that I could also make money on oil by investing in Norway stock market, so I sold off my commodities ETF (which didn't pay dividends) and replaced it with Norway ETF, which of course, shot up in price thanks to oil and paid me dividends.

 

[zzTiny]

Guys, China Market heading back to earth. I am actually quite tempted since government policy is never priced in. Which China etf you in, @limster

Meanwhile, US market still pricing a goldilocks situation. Cmon leh. Future swap already say no rate cut for this year. Wtf man, 1% drop yesterday? Pui, whoever wrote efficient market should be jailed for fraud.

Europe economy really look gg sia. Either sustain inflation or a leecession can save them. Too many clowns up there.

 

[elvintay07]

Most of the weapons manufacturers and those that directly benefit stock price are already too high, so I just trace the supply chain down to those that will indirectly benefit. I think Australia as a whole will benefit indirectly. So holding Australia ETF will give me exposure to both A$ and the Australia economy. Those who visit Australia regularly and pay attention will see how dependent the Australia economy (and property prices) are on mining.

One of the most interesting investing strategies I learnt from a free FSMOne hotel dinner was from a Natixis fund manager who mentioned how you can 'bet' or 'express a view' on a particular macro theme by looking at indirect correlations such as currency. So if you are bullish in oil, the fund manager says no need to buy oil futures, you can make money simply by holding Krone.

I did more research and realised that I could also make money on oil by investing in Norway stock market, so I sold off my commodities ETF (which didn't pay dividends) and replaced it with Norway ETF, which of course, shot up in price thanks to oil and paid me dividends.

Which Australia and Norway ETF?

 

[limster]

Guys, China Market heading back to earth. I am actually quite tempted since government policy is never priced in. Which China etf you in, @limster

Which Australia and Norway ETF?

I feel there is no need to split hairs about small differences between similar ETFs, eg: dunno how come the debate between IWDA and VWRA can be going on for so long. There are definitely differences between the two, but I dunno why people want to argue, just pick one and invest,

So if you are interested in investing in China, Australia or Norway, just DYODD and pick what looks good to you. Or if really cannot decide, then spread your money across different ETFs, for example

 

[elvintay07]

I feel there is no need to split hairs about small differences between similar ETFs, eg: dunno how come the debate between IWDA and VWRA can be going on for so long. There are definitely differences between the two, but I dunno why people want to argue, just pick one and invest,

So if you are interested in investing in China, Australia or Norway, just DYODD and pick what looks good to you. Or if really cannot decide, then spread your money across different ETFs, for example

These 3 countries the ETF performance like STI. ! Can be good friend. China seems interesting but all avoiding like plague due to boss XJP

 

[DevilPlate]

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/retail-investors-record-inflows-us-stock-market-193801422.html
Tesla (TSLA) remained the favorite among this group, with retail inflows to the stock totaling $9.7 billion year to date.

Those allocations come during a comeback rally for the electric vehicle giant after closing out its worst year on record in 2022. Tesla shares have gained 74% in 2023 through Wednesday's close.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), an ETF which tracks the benchmark S&P 500, has been the second-most popular purchase by retail investors this year, with retail flows totaling $3.6 billion in 2023. The index is up 8.2% year to date through Wednesday.

Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), and Nvidia (NVDA) rounded out the top five, receiving $1.8 billion, $1.7 billion, and $1.4 billion in inflows this year, respectively. These names were up 20%, 19.5%, and 55.8% this year in that order.

 

[Seah.tt]

sg stocks more for dividends i guess... most of them can't grow one since is based in sg. unless able expand overseas

need delist to grow lol

 

[Seah.tt]

Currently my passive income > current standard of living so I am financially independent. Then over that, I add my salary to this cashflow since I don't hate my job unlike most of the FIRE crowd.

This means that I have a sum of cash to invest/ reinvest every month. Since this is "extra" cash, I feel I can take a little more risk and buy stocks with it instead of just putting into FD/T-Bill.

I am terrible at selling. The last time I sold anything was Sembmarine at $0.139 because I never wanted those shares anyway- they were given free and I was 'forced' to subscribe to rights at $0.08.....

jskm. my full yr dividend also not enough use for one mth