2023 Market Sentiment & Positioning

[limster]

Read the book -

The trader’s pendulum : the 10 habits of highly successful traders

A well written book and should help you figure out where you are going wrong. Once you correct those mistakes, you should see positive results. In fact the book talks about two amateur traders and their initial struggles followed by eventual success. Your case seems to be similar to the guy in the story.

equally interesting would be how many people read the book and what % became successful traders as a result.... , but I guess if you don't read/study anything and go and trade, your likelihood of success if even lower.

i also kind of accept that even if I read that book, I won't be a good trader. A man's got to know his own limitations

 

[churnmaster]

equally interesting would be how many people read the book and what % became successful traders as a result.... , but I guess if you don't read/study anything and go and trade, your likelihood of success if even lower.

i also kind of accept that even if I read that book, I won't be a good trader. A man's got to know his own limitations

Well, who according to you is a more successful trader / investor .....

Year 1: Market rallies 30%, Individual A makes 50%, Individual B makes 20%, Individual C makes 15%

Year 2: Market drops 20%, Individual A losses 30%, Individual B makes 0%, Individual C makes 5%

 

[churnmaster]

For all those who like to base their investment decisions on valuations, here's an excellent video

 

[aurvandil]

i also kind of accept that even if I read that book, I won't be a good trader. A man's got to know his own limitations

Reading a trading book to become a good trader is akin to reading a cook book to become a good cook.

It all comes from doing again and again until you get it right.

Each time you do and things go wrong, do some reflection and make small improvements.

Rinse and repeat until you reach consitency.

That is basically how everyone who becomes a trader/investor makes it.

Problem for most people is ego and the unrealistic expectation that after a few months or a year, they have made it and arrived.

It takes much much longer than that.

If you look at your own investor journey, this is de facto the road you have walked.

 

[churnmaster]

Problem for most people is ego and the unrealistic expectation that after a few months or a year, they have made it and arrived.

It takes much much longer than that.

If you look at your own journey, this is de facto the road you have walked.

Exactly ... that's why most self proclaimed perma bulls during the bull phase are caught with their pants down during the bear phase.

It's for every individual to decide whether they want to be an investor / trader whose fortunes swing with the phase of the market or be the one who consistently makes money in every phase of the market. The later requires a lot of discipline.

 

[revhappy]

Exactly ... that's why most self proclaimed perma bulls during the bull phase are caught with their pants down during the bear phase.

It's for every individual to decide whether they want to be an investor / trader whose fortunes swing with the phase of the market or be the one who consistently makes money in every phase of the market. The later requires a lot of discipline.

There is a 3rd option also. Consistently lose in every phase of the market.
I know I have had this argument with you before. You and some other people I know always argue that making money in the market by just timing it very easy. If this was so easy, there wont be a market.

Also unless you share your trades live, I wont believe you either

 

[limster]

There is a 3rd option also. Consistently lose in every phase of the market.
I know I have had this argument with you before. You and some other people I know always argue that making money in the market by just timing it very easy. If this was so easy, there wont be a market.

Also unless you share your trades live, I wont believe you either

After Sembcorp recovered in price, some people then say they are vested. Myself, I was sharing my Sembcorp purchases as the price was crashing....

 

[churnmaster]

There is a 3rd option also. Consistently lose in every phase of the market.
I know I have had this argument with you before. You and some other people I know always argue that making money in the market by just timing it very easy. If this was so easy, there wont be a market.

Also unless you share your trades live, I wont believe you either

Consistently lose in every phase of the market . . Just explain how ?

You don’t have to believe me. I know it’s not easy to accept that someone else can achieve that when you have consistently failed to achieve the same.

 

[revhappy]

Consistently lose in every phase of the market . . Just explain how ?

You don’t have to believe me. I know it’s not easy to accept that someone else can achieve that when you have consistently failed to achieve the same.

Maybe it is the other way around. You are the only God out there who is winning all the time, so you cannot believe there are people who are losing all the time.

Anyways you don't have to prove anything. You win it is your money. Congratulations! Enjoy the billions you made by consistently beating everyone, rather than coming here and telling people they can also do it, but not sharing your secrets to do it. It helps nobody.

 

[blackvice]

Reading a trading book to become a good trader is akin to reading a cook book to become a good cook.

It all comes from doing again and again until you get it right.

Each time you do and things go wrong, do some reflection and make small improvements.

Rinse and repeat until you reach consitency.

That is basically how everyone who becomes a trader/investor makes it.

Problem for most people is ego and the unrealistic expectation that after a few months or a year, they have made it and arrived.

It takes much much longer than that.

If you look at your own investor journey, this is de facto the road you have walked.

Yeah study finance doesn't mean the person knows his finance well too.

I remember one joker who studied finance told me last year late mid the hike for mortgage loans wont hit more than 3%. Mind you, the mortgage loans at that period is already at mid to high 2%, and fed still had rounds of interest rate hike at that time.

Just a conversation, you know that so call studied finance guy doesn't really his stuffs well.

 

[stanlawj]

Yeah study finance doesn't mean the person knows his finance well too.

I remember one joker who studied finance told me last year late mid the hike for mortgage loans wont hit more than 3%. Mind you, the mortgage loans at that period is already at mid to high 2%, and fed still had rounds of interest rate hike at that time.

Just a conversation, you know that so call studied finance guy doesn't really his stuffs well.

It's about applied knowledge. Book knowledge and certs are just the basics requirements.

Anyone can study anything. But being a practitioner requires more than head knowledge. Knowing how to apply the knowledge correctly cannot be learnt from books or certs.

The true test of any finance expert is the graph of their personal investment portfolio that is 100% managed by themselves only.

 

[theMKR]

Consistently lose in every phase of the market . . Just explain how ?

You don’t have to believe me. I know it’s not easy to accept that someone else can achieve that when you have consistently failed to achieve the same.

moi explain how....

keep buying rubbish 0dte options

 

[churnmaster]

moi explain how....

keep buying rubbish 0dte options

If you are smart enough to figure out that buying options can be a consistently losing strategy then by that logic the opposite (selling options) should be a consistently winning strategy.

 

[theMKR]

If you are smart enough to figure out that buying options can be a consistently losing strategy then by that logic the opposite (selling options) should be a consistently gaining strategy.

but no ppl want to buy rubbish 0dte except moiself

 

[churnmaster]

but no ppl want to buy rubbish 0dte except moiself

Get a real money account . . enough of the demo accounts.

 

[elvintay07]

For all those who like to base their investment decisions on valuations, here's an excellent video

Thanks! Sibei interesting insights. So meaning to say Microsoft, meta, google hong gan liao is it?

 

[theMKR]

Get a real money account . . enough of the demo accounts.

to sell options, u need a lot of money to sell cash covered puts.

and unlimited money to sell naked calls.

while buying 0dte options are like toto tickets, no need a lot of money

 

[stanlawj]

For all those who like to base their investment decisions on valuations, here's an excellent video

Wow... great perspective.

 

[theMKR]

Well, who according to you is a more successful trader / investor .....

Year 1: Market rallies 30%, Individual A makes 50%, Individual B makes 20%, Individual C makes 15%

Year 2: Market drops 20%, Individual A losses 30%, Individual B makes 0%, Individual C makes 5%

individual C would have a higher sharpe ratio and overall more profit.

but investor A would be the better trader, because; yolottmktrbbq

 

[slowmover]

individual C would have a higher sharpe ratio and overall more profit.

but investor A would be the better trader, because; yolottmktrbbq

what's sharpe ratio? i only know shopee