China & hk stocks/ etfs

[peachmouse]

China announced some measures on Friday, 8 Nov 2024:


For those who understands Chinese, can see below video on how the above measures benefit China's economy:

 

[DevilPlate]

China announced some measures on Friday, 8 Nov 2024:


For those who understands Chinese, can see below video on how the above measures benefit China's economy:

I understand chinese, but i don’t really understand how this whole thing gona pan out.

Just tell me HST can break $1 anot by next yr

 

[stanlawj]

I guess some people need to hear this from the enlightened Americans themselves. China will not be harmed by US import tariffs.

 

[Tiny Shrimp]

I guess some people need to hear this from the enlightened Americans themselves. China will not be harmed by US import tariffs.

soon even china bear will be china bull liao

 

[sky1978]

Citing “insufficient” domestic demand, China’s leadership on Tuesday endorsed the acceleration of fiscal and monetary policies, including the use of government bonds to fund spending and stimulus programmes to upgrade industrial equipment and consumer goods.

China's retail sales in 2023 were around USD7b, compared to a GDP of USD17b. US retail sales in 2023 were also USD7b++ compared to a GDP of USD27b. From a retail spending perspective, are the Chinese spending too little compared to the GDP? This is the point the speaker in the earlier podcast tried to bring up. The US consumer household spending vs GDP was much higher because they included a lot of service payments.

Started in 2008, the solar panel manufacturer benefited early on from practically every possible subsidy.

It got 8.9ha of prime downtown land in the heart of the city almost for free. One of China’s biggest state-owned banks arranged a loan at a low interest rate. The Hunan provincial government then agreed to pay most of the interest.

Why did no one bother to find out who are the shareholders of this company? I don't believe there are free lunches everywhere. End of the day, the shareholders might be the State themselves. They started with only RMB50m capital, there is no way a private company can build massive production capacity with that sort of equity. There are hundreds of other solar companies that went bust in China over the past decade, the problem with most Western-origin articles is that they picked on one issue and then imposed the same treatment throughout the rest. I read many of those Solar company's financials (not for the purpose of investing in them), but I don't see a significant amount to guarantee loans on their books.
https://cksilicon.en.made-in-china.com/

Even if we assume they are really privately held and these businessmen are so good at getting financial resources from the State, then I would say that it probably happens everywhere. Many countries dished out guaranteed loans to industries which they want to develop. Below is a list of failed loans by the US Department of Energy in supporting the renewable energy sectors. I don't think it is the complete list, you can probably find more separately.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/adaman...re-hidden-inside-bidens-instructure-proposal/

Its pretty much the same thing for the EV industry.

I won't be surprised if they are given cheap land and loan. But at least for the latest Xiaomi EV venture, they paid RMB800m for some new land in the Beijing area for their expansion.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/co...illion-yuan-site-beijing-expand-ev-production

Also, it is not only the Chinese EV companies that got government support, Tesla also got cheap loans, other tax breaks and other subsidies.

https://www.scmp.com/business/compa...ntial-rates-us161-billion-loans-chinese-banks

The Chinese market is anything but free. In 2021 an industry (private education) was deleted overnight by the CCP even though demand was strong for these services, China is the epitome of state capitalism.

I don't see anything wrong. It is a good move because, at the rate they are going, the well-being of the kids will be affected. A free market doesn't equate to a free right to stress out the next generation. You need to look behind the reason why they are deleted, is it because they are making too much money or too easy money? If the parents cannot get themselves out of the vicious cycle, then the State should step in and at least they are the few ones with the guts to do that.

 

[sky1978]

Not sure for photovoltaic industry, this overcapacity is intended or involuntary. This is a 'scorched earth' strategy, if Chinese companies are bleeding losses with increase in market share and therefore economics of scale, EU and US companies will be haemorrhaging losses. E.g for First solar, a US company, 98% of sales in US. I suppose the other 2% of sales in Canada else I cannot see why other countries will buy made in US solar products. After that will be industry consolidation and the supply will fall. Then the non US market will be cornered by Chinese companies.

EU and US already have no big silicon-based solar manufacturers left. Big as in more than 5GW annual capacity. Those that are still producing in the US are relying on the tariffs acting as trade barriers. But then, they still have to keep playing the hide-and-seek game with those Chinese manufacturers moving their offshore capacity from country to country depending on who makes it to the list of tariffed countries.

Even though First Solar is a US company, its major manufacturing has always been in Malaysia. It is only recently that they started building bigger plants back in the USA and expanded to Vietnam and India. In the past, the tariffs started with those small US silicon-based manufacturers complaining about dumping by the Chinese companies but First Solar is always safe because they are using thin film non-silicon based production. There are no other similar US-based competitors filing complaints against thin film-based solar.

The last when I looked at their cost/watt a year or two ago, I think they are already hitting below the 20c/w level, so they become one of the only few who can compete on pricing with those Chinese manufacturers. The main disadvantage of their thin film is that it contains cadmium, so it generally finds its way into big solar farms rather than residential rooftops.

If the Chinese can fine-tune the perovskite-based solar cell, that will likely spark off another round of capacity expansion. About 8 years ago, the industry started a wave of monocrystalline expansion to replace the multicrystalline (lower efficient) cells. Then into 2020, they started rushing for PERC and HJT technology. On top of that, their assembly lines also need replacement because they want to start using M12 large-size cells to make panels with higher output. Silicon-based cells already hit a 25% efficiency level and closing in on their limit. Peroskite-based cells can move it above the 30% mark. So, for the same surface area, you get a lot more power generation which brings along more economies of scale.

 

[sky1978]

The size of a typical American is 3 times of an Asian or African.. Export oriented economy is doomed without US market

China's GDP is around USD18T, Export is around 4T and to the USA, about 500b which is less than 3% of their total GDP. Will they be doomed because they lost 3% of their GDP? Is it realistic to assume they will lose the entire 3% in a trade war?

The US cannot possibly make those 500b goods themselves, it is just a matter of shifting the buying to some other countries who may still be buying the materials and components from China.

As much as the US is a big market, its export value is also not small. It stands at around 3T vs 3.8T imports. If the US wanted to start a trade war with everyone, a huge chunk of their 3T export would also be impacted. Their only eyesore is that the bulk of their deficit is with China, but unless they start making toys, shoes, clothing and other low-value goods themselves, their 800b deficit will not disappear just because of tariffs.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/252246/total-value-of-us-international-trade/

 

[Mephist0pheLes]

I guess some people need to hear this from the enlightened Americans themselves. China will not be harmed by US import tariffs.

US is China number 1 export destination.
China export to US in the previous trump presidency was an average of 428B per year, in the last 4 years it rose 23% to 526B per year.
China export to US is almost 4 times of US export to China.

but since it dosnt matter, guess US sld jus increase tariff on them, since no harm anyway.

 

[Mephist0pheLes]

I understand chinese, but i don’t really understand how this whole thing gona pan out.

Just tell me HST can break $1 anot by next yr

maybe more likely to break $0.50
TSMC jus announced they wont be selling any 7nm or smaller chips to China and HK last friday.

https://www.ctee.com.tw/news/20241109700029-439901

 

[stanlawj]

Brace for impact. Treat tariffs and end of PNTR status as baked in cake.

Republicans inch closer to ending China's favored trade status​

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/republicans-inch-closer-end-chinas-favored-trade-status

 

[homer123]

Brace for impact. Treat tariffs and end of PNTR status as baked in cake.

Republicans inch closer to ending China's favored trade status​

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/republicans-inch-closer-end-chinas-favored-trade-status

Gone case for China and hk...the days of exporting its way out of a troubled economy is over. Without a huge market to sell, China manufacturers are pretty much doomed.

 

[sohguanh]

Brace for impact. Treat tariffs and end of PNTR status as baked in cake.

Republicans inch closer to ending China's favored trade status​

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/republicans-inch-closer-end-chinas-favored-trade-status

I think such strategy works both ways. Last I know big players like Apple Starbucks is in China doing business too. So if US do first day China most likely do fifteen day. Tit for tat.

 

[d9_lives]

So trump wanna f@ck up his elon buddy's biz in china?

 

[Tiny Shrimp]

so china back to bear again?

 

[mooseolly]

Interesting, edmwers should rejoice boat coming back. Must thanks Trump for his Tariff. This include those US listed stocks with significant China exposure.

 

[stanlawj]

You guys don't understand. If US enacts tariffs, China is already prepared.

I mean c'mon, do you buy most of your online stuff from Amazon US, Shopee or Lazada?

Now, look at this video: Sept 14, 2024.
Check the stock market, and notice it is right at the bottom.



This one is Oct 26, 2024.


So US tariffs going to make this worse? How?

 

[stanlawj]

Best discussion about how the plan to use tariffs to reindustrialise US can be worked out: economic statecraft.



The real loser here is Europe.

 

[homer123]

China's GDP is around USD18T, Export is around 4T and to the USA, about 500b which is less than 3% of their total GDP. Will they be doomed because they lost 3% of their GDP? Is it realistic to assume they will lose the entire 3% in a trade war?

The US cannot possibly make those 500b goods themselves, it is just a matter of shifting the buying to some other countries who may still be buying the materials and components from China.

As much as the US is a big market, its export value is also not small. It stands at around 3T vs 3.8T imports. If the US wanted to start a trade war with everyone, a huge chunk of their 3T export would also be impacted. Their only eyesore is that the bulk of their deficit is with China, but unless they start making toys, shoes, clothing and other low-value goods themselves, their 800b deficit will not disappear just because of tariffs.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/252246/total-value-of-us-international-trade/

It doesn't matter as these data are from the past.. The future is uncertain and it is better not to be in denial of what is coming.

 

[stanlawj]

China's grand plan with Global South : please read the whole thread in X to get the idea.

 

[Tiny Shrimp]

boat really come back liao ah
this boat always coming and going...
safe or not