BBCWatcher
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In BOTH cases you don’t know the extent of the losses, if any. In the case of T-bill-based shielding not only do you not know the extent of the SA rate risk you have to wait months to get past it. Many people don’t like having to wait months to know whether and how much they lost and would prefer to get their risk behind them quickly.No doubt one can choose the amount and when to enter and exit UT. Still there is a risk that the loss may be sour or very sour. If got time or start early, and keep bidding for TB at more than 4.6% for guaranteed profit over prevailing SA rate and hold till maturity. Well and good if SA rate stays unchanged or rise by the earliest in Apr/May that turns calculated profit into loss that is measurable and palatable for shielding. Failing that, then I would venture into UT when close to 55 and just hope the losses would be minimal in shielding SA.
Interesting hypothetical you’ve got, but we don’t have 4.6% T-bills. Not yet anyway. The previous T-bill had a cut-off yield of 4.28% equating to an EIR of about 4.36%. But that’s the rate when you’d only get a partial fill. Only bidders at or below 4.27% got full allocations. Bidders at 4.29% or higher got nothing. Yes, the SA rate risk is mitigated with a higher T-bill rate, but what if the T-bill rate isn’t higher? (And what if it’s lower?)
Net net, this is not a straightforward decision and has no clear winner, not right now anyway. And before TOO long T-bill rates will head down well below 4% again. You probably won’t give T-bill-based shielding even 5 seconds of thought if you’re age 53 or younger right now.
In both cases you can only buy what’s investible, but the unit trust-based method has better granularity (finer control) in both date (every business day instead of once every 2 weeks) and dollar amount. It’s the clear winner on those scores.With TB opiton, one can choose to bid more than the amount available in SA including timed incoming contributions, if any. Eg, with 300k less 40k leaving available balance of 260k, you can bid more than 260k by ensuring the cut-off price will leave minimal amount (less than 1k) above 40k. If the COP is lower leaving more than expected above 40k, count yourself lucky. With UT you can only buy with available amount shown in SA i.e. 260k.
Of course you could use both shielding methods in combination if you wish.