Derivatives Trading

[maxinger]

Trading Eurodollar and 10y T Bond

Can't see much opportunity to do spread trading across various calender Eurodollar interest rate futures.
perhaps those HFT have perfected their programs and effectively arbitraged until there is no spread opportunity.


how about trading outright ?
Eurodollar and 10y T bond are trendy but movement is not that great.

anyway, better get the charts ready.
who knows, after Fed rate hike, it might get very trendy.

 

[maxinger]

asian markets review and view

sgp simsci
bear channel formation.
last fri price rose to 334 level, then reverse down decisively, forming a long candle tail.
ie down force rather strong.

nikkei.
last fri price gapped up 19000 level which is also support/resistance level.
as of now, not clear whether 19000 is resistive or not.

china A50
bear channel formation.
past few days, day range has progressively reduced day by day.
price may attempt to go to 10000 level and test that resistance level.

Taiwan TW
bear channel formation.
last fri price gapped up and formed doji candle formation indicating indecisiveness.

India Nifty
support level 8300 has already been broken decisively.
last fri price gapped up and reverse down, forming a long candle tail.

 

[maxinger]

sgp simsci

today is roll over day, ie new contract starts 9am this morning.

look at how simsci went up 1.4% just before 9am.

we wouldn't be able to profit from it because we wouldn't know what the big boys were doing.

but can see some traders profit from this situation by taking counter trend few seconds after 9am.


this pattern is quite typical.

 

[maxinger]

european markets view

stoxx 50
very nice simple pattern.
should be very easy to trade.

past few days, price has risen to resistance level 3300.
past few days, day range has progressively been reduced
and volume also progressively reduced.
soon it might continue its downward journey as overall is still downtrend.

gold futures
unable to pierce 1145 resistance level.
it appears that price is in bear flag formation.
awaiting for signal.

 

[maxinger]

look at Nikkei.
it went down like text book answer.
can earn 20 ticks or more per contract.

level 19000 confirm rather resistive

 

[maxinger]

WTI crude oil

not fully concentrating on WTI crude oil

recently there have been strong up secondary trend.

first signal to long - 27 Aug 10pm
2nd signal to long - 28 Aug 9.30pm
3rd signal to long - 31 Aug 11pm
4th signal - I think no more already

Note the time. the Americians are the one moving the market.

 

[maxinger]

similarly for simsci,
level 334 appears rather resistive.

sure got many happy people.

 

[maxinger]

europe market view

stoxx50

Past few days price has been rising with
decreasing volume, and
decreasing day range.
price has risen to resistance level 3300.

so?
something big is going to happen.
it will either breakup, or continue its downward journey.

But !
do not attempt to predict, to anticipate, to forcast next movement.

wait for big boys to show us direction. they will be glad to show us the way.

 

[maxinger]

stoxx50

Past few days price has been rising with
decreasing volume, and
decreasing day range.
price has risen to resistance level 3300.

so?
something big is going to happen.
it will either breakup, or continue its downward journey.

But !
do not attempt to predict, to anticipate, to forcast next movement.

wait for big boys to show us direction. they will be glad to show us the way.

it gapped down about 2%.
stoxx 50 rarely gapped during wkdays

 

[maxinger]

US markets view

today many happy people trading asian markets because of great movement.



US Russell view
past few days day range narrowed significantly.
premarket already went down due to Asian and European markets down movement.



when US market opens, it might continue to go down,
reverse up and attempt to test 1200 level again or stay still
or various trend combinations.

again do not predict, do not anticipate, do not forcast next movement. those big boys will show us the way.
we just need to decode it correctly.

 

[maxinger]

dax and stoxx50

look at dax and stoxx50

quite easy to trade.
first price gapped down.

after 2pm, price went up.
so can long it.

after 3pm, price went down.
so can short it.

then after 5pm, price went up.
so can long it again.

then after 7.30pm, price went down.
so can short it again.

lots of opportunites throughout the whole day.

 

[maxinger]

How to day trade to increase odd of success?

There are three major markets;
asian, European and US markets.

understand which region is making very big news.
trade during that time zone.

if Europe is having PIGS crisis, then trade European and avoid other markets

if Asian is having China stock market issue, then trade Asian and avoid other markets.
u will find the asian charts very nice nice.
so now if u trade US markets, u will find it rather challenging becos its charts will be very jerky

 

[maxinger]

nikkei

look at NK. quite similar pattern to yesterday stoxx 50

first nk gapped down

8am it went up to form wave 1.
can long it. wave 1 is super long length.

8.15am it retrace.
can short it

8.30am it formed wave 2.
can long it again


9.20am it retrace.
can short it again.

9.35 it formed wave 3.
can long it again.


ie go up can earn money.
go down also can earn money.

 

[ValueInvestor]

15 pages of u talking to yourself LOL

 

[maxinger]

15 pages of u talking to yourself LOL

talking to wall actually

trading is boring.

 

[ValueInvestor]

u no passion for your job

if u got passion for your job, everyday will be fun and exciting

 

[maxinger]

u no passion for your job

if u got passion for your job, everyday will be fun and exciting

hahha.good point.

 

[maxinger]

commodities

wti crude oil
what is the trend?
No idea.
not worth cracking my head to analyse it.
not worth risking money to trade it.

gold futures
level 1150 is resistive.
day chart shows price is supported by rising trend line.
it appears that there is bear flag formation but then there is rising trend line.
awaiting for clearer picture.
as of now, not worth risking money to trade it.



eurusd
supported by rising trend line.
seems like bear flag formation but then there is rising trend line.


gbpusd
obviously downtrend.

stoxx50
most likely going to be inside day.

 

[maxinger]

trend continuation vs trend reversal signals

what are they?

trend continuation signal.
price is going up. we look for signal to go long.
or
price is going down. we look for signal to go short.

trend reversal signal.
price is going up. but we look for signal to go short.
or
price is going down. we look for signal to go long.


understanding when trend is going to continue or reverse very important. it determine whether u earn or lose money.

when to use trend continuation or reversal?
i find very hard to describe it as it takes many years to learn from experience. it depends on the big boys and we simply have to decode what those big boys are trying to do from the chart.
At times the bull big boys and bear big boys are fighting messily ended up the chart is very messy.


some markets are very prone to trend reversal esp US Russell.
u might see some trend reversal signals in Asian and European markets.

 

[klarklar]

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