Forex/Cryptocurrency General Chit Chat Thread

[Mr.Canberra]

now already very exciting since FEB

Mostly stocks lah. Not so much for Forex.

It will get even more exciting as Fed funds rate hits 2.5% in Dec 2018. Debt implosion is lagging with each rate hike as the cracks start to show such as the recent EM markets rout. I have been saying for the past 12-18 months that 2% is the leading indicator for implosion. Unfortunately I have to take some collateral damage haha.

Singapore government did the right thing by implementing the latest round of property cooling measure. They would rather overshoot than risk domestic household debt defaults if another global financial crisis happens. The only people who kpkb are the real estate agents and house flippers.

 

[Mr. Wood]

By the way USD power up. Bloody hell USD/SGD breached 1.37 again!





Bloomberg TV live streaming is free. However they started to halt the live stream after 30min. Only paid subscribers can watch unlimited streaming. Just clear cookies and refresh browser and the stream will work. Same for articles quota.

Take note internet live stream has 30 to 60 seconds lag if compared to cable TV telecast.

Bloomberg TV is a must for any serious trader. One thing I like about Bloomberg TV is they cover objectively with a good amount of Forex besides stocks and bonds as compared to CNBC which is more stocks orientated and lots of bias thrash talking.

 

[Mr. Wood]

trump said Eur as bad as china, so eur down yen up, this trump

recently whoever uncle Trump wacks the currecy kana.
if only I have access to those exotic currencies. but spread is ***** wide.

 

[Mr. Wood]

Safe haven buying. Usually over reaction from markets.

Tiagong from Bloomberg TV guest that USD will continue to be strong as US mid term elections near.

Hopefully no 'Michael Fay' kind of troublemakers pop out in Singapore during Uncle Trump's term. Imagine SGD tio tanked if he says Singapore buay kan!

hope got such incident
so I can unwind my usd
and we can all witness how humji humji lee really is.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

recently whoever uncle Trump wacks the currecy kana.
if only I have access to those exotic currencies. but spread is ***** wide.

I still have one stucked USD/ZAR short position. 0.1 Lot can already kill you like what EUR/TRY and USD/RUB did to explode my trading account #2.

My advice is not to touch EM currencies. Can win big but lose big also! If you short EM currencies and do carry trade. The swap costs will kill you first! If you long and tio 5-10% move against your position in one day then you better pray you have enough margin or have stop loss.

hope got such incident
so I can unwind my usd
and we can all witness how humji humji lee really is.

Hahaha if that happens good to sell more USD to fund SGD expenses such as daily cai png meals and utility bills! PPP will increase a lot.

On a serious note very hard to manipulate SGD by speculators as the trade weighted basket of currencies is undisclosed.

It does not hurt to hedge against SGD in case sh*t really drops.

I only have some SGD in trading account and maintain about S$1000-1500 monthly in savings account for living expenses hahaha.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY dropped like a ton of bricks!

 

[Mr. Wood]

Volatitily is coming back!
All times in SST

Mon Sep 3
9:30am AUD Retail Sales m/m
AUD Company Operating Profits q/q
1:40pm JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
4:30pm GBP Manufacturing PMI

Tue Sep 4
1:15am EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
9:30am AUD Current Account
12:30pm AUD Cash Rate
AUD RBA Rate Statement
4:30pm GBP Construction PMI
5:30pm AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
8:15pm GBP Inflation Report Hearings
10:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI

Wed Sep 5
9:30am AUD GDP q/q
4:30pm GBP Services PMI
8:30pm CAD Trade Balance
CAD Labor Productivity q/q
10:00pm CAD BOC Rate Statement
CAD Overnight Rate

Thu Sep 6
9:30am AUD Trade Balance
8:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
10:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
11:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories

Fri Sep 7
12:30am CHF Gov Board Member Zurbrugg Speaks
2:30am CAD Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks
8:00am JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y
8:30pm CAD Employment Change
CAD Unemployment Rate
USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
USD Non-Farm Employment Change
USD Unemployment Rate
10:00pm CAD Ivey PMI

 

[Mr. Wood]

Dollar and Yen Strong Finish Warn of Next Week's Anxieties (1 SEP)

The pullback in the dollar from the mid-August faded last week as emerging market and trade tensions resurfaced as potent forces. The outperformance of US assets in August was expected to generate dollar-sales at the end of the month, the dollar gained against all the major currencies at the end of last week. The dollar's low was registered by the middle of the week. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell for the last three sessions after rallying the first two days of last week. The euro and the dollar-bloc currencies made new lows ahead of the weekend.

We had suggested the 94.00 area was a reasonable technical target for the Dollar Index. It was the 38.2% retracement of the rally since mid-April. The low last week was a little below 94.45 registered on Tuesday. This also represents the low for the month. Over the next three sessions, a base seemed to have been carved out there. The Dollar Index had been pushed below the trendline drawn off the June 14 (ECB meeting) and July lows but closed the week back above it (~94.70). The technical readings on the daily bar charts have not turned higher, but are poised to do so early next week, which begins off with a US holiday. The Dollar Index can rise toward 95.70-96.00 without meeting strong resistance. The weekly readings are not particularly constructive, but the monthly ones suggest the Dollar Index has not peaked.

 

[Mr. Wood]

Dollar and Yen Strong Finish Warn of Next Week's Anxieties (1 SEP)

The dollar made new lows for the week against the yen on August 31 (~JPY110.70). Softer core bond yields, heavier global stocks, and pressure in emerging markets make for a constructive environment for the yen. The dollar slipped a little more than 0.1% on the week against the yen and about 0.65% on the month. The dollar had begun the month near JPY112.00 and fell to JPY109.80 on August 21. The dollar's recovery faltered just above the weekly downtrend line going back to 2015 (~JPY111.60). The greenback finished just below the middle of the session's range ahead of the weekend. The 61.8% retracement of the dollar advance from the August 21 low is near JPY110.55. A break of this would retarget the JPY109.80-JPY110.0 area. Note that this year's average is near JPY109.40. The average here in H2 thus far is JPY111.20. The dollar has not closed above JPY112 in nearly six weeks and offers the nearby cap.

 

[Mr. Wood]

Dollar and Yen Strong Finish Warn of Next Week's Anxieties (1 SEP)

The euro peaked on Tuesday $1.1735, a little more than 10 pips shy of the month's high. It finished the week a little more than a cent lower, recording lower lows for the last three sessions. The euro penetrated the downtrend line drawn of that mid-June high (~$1.1695)and even closed above it in the middle of the week. It was a false break and the euro. The euro finished the week well below it. The euro dipped below $1.16 before the weekend and close a little above. The price action does not inspire confidence, but it may take a break of $1.1535 to encourage thoughts of another run at the mid-August lows below $1.13. The RSI and Slow Stochastics have turned down, but the MACDs have not.

The dollar bears may see a hammer candlestick on the monthly charts. Under this perspective, the price action in the last few days is flag pattern, a continuation formation, which would project into the $1.19-$1.20 area. This is broadly consistent with the possible head and shoulder bottom the euro may have formed here in August. It offers a measuring objective near $1.1940. Losses below $1.1530 would negate the head and shoulders pattern and a move back through the June 14 downtrend line (~$1.1680) with conviction would lend it more credibility.

After pessimism about a UK-EU divorce agreement drove sterling near $1.2660 in the middle of the month, some renewed optimism helped it recover through the $1.30 level. The dollar's strength provided too much ahead of the weekend, and sterling eased back to $1.2945. Initial support is seen near $1.2930. Sterling has been climbing a trendline drawn off the August 15 lows. It starts the new week and month near $1.2880, an area that houses several retracement objectives. The technical condition looks stronger than the euro, The euro met a wall of sellers near GBP0.9100 and proceeded to sell-off below the previous week's low. The euro traded on both sides of the previous week's range, but the close, above the previous week's low, neutralized the negativity often associated with this type of price action. Further corrective pressures could see the euro fall toward GBP0.8860, the 50% mark of the rally that began in mid-April near GBP0.8620.

 

[Mr. Wood]

Dollar and Yen Strong Finish Warn of Next Week's Anxieties (1 SEP)

Nervousness that the US deadline to complete NAFTA 2.0 talks would not be met, coupled the risk-off mood saw the US dollar rally from CAD1.29 in the middle of the week to nearly CAD1.31 before the weekend. The greenback approached the downtrend line drawn off the late-June, July and early August highs. It comes in near CAD1.3115 at the start of next week and finishes the week close to CAD1.3090. The technical indicators are turning more positive for the US dollar. A convincing break of above CAD1.3135 suggests a test on CAD1.3200. It seems already baked in the cake that the Bank of Canada will hold fire at next week's meeting, and barring some unforeseen shock, it is widely expected to hike rates in October (~80% chance).

 

[Mr. Wood]

Dollar and Yen Strong Finish Warn of Next Week's Anxieties (1 SEP)

The Australian dollar was the weakest of the major currencies, losing almost 2% against the US dollar in the last week of August. It brought the month's loss to a bit more than 3% and took the Aussie to levels not seen since early 2017. Not only did it suffer in the general risk-off environment, but also from the rate increase of variable rate mortgages by one of Australia's largest banks. It is seen as making it more rather than less difficult for the central bank to hike rates. A rate hike was not expected through the middle of next year in any event. There may be some support near $0.7135, but better demand may be seen closer to $0.7000.

Recall that in the big picture, the Australian dollar appears to have formed a double top in September 2017 and March 2018 near $0.8135. The neckline is drawn off the lows between the two peaks or roughly $0.7480. We estimate the technical price projection is about $0.6825.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

So quiet.

 

[revhappy]

So quiet.

I was also thinking the same

Sent from Dont Take Any Of My Statment As Investment Advice. Do Your Own Due Diligence. using GAGT

 

[Mr.Canberra]

USD

I was also thinking the same

USD gain strength again!

 

[awful999]

Forex trading fund me to come here but look at nzdusd now I sian haha....Off internet now


In English vegetable land now

 

[Mr.Canberra]

Forex trading fund me to come here but look at nzdusd now I sian haha....Off internet now

In English vegetable land now

Steady lah bro awful999! Go jiak hong again. After October I have to cut back on jiak hong trips due to August's losses. May have to work at McDonald's or Deliveroo liao!

Looks like Australia or New Zealand?

NZD/USD today damn cui!

 

[awful999]

Steady lah bro awful999! Go jiak hong again. After October I have to cut back on jiak hong trips due to August's losses. May have to work at McDonald's or Deliveroo liao!

Looks like Australia or New Zealand?

NZD/USD today damn cui!

Bro I already said English vegetable land haha...taiwan

 

[Mr.Canberra]

Bro I already said English vegetable land haha...taiwan

Hahaha just now catch no ball. Now I understand.

But my favourite guy is still the self produce, self act Sink Water Flat.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

USD

USD is really a beast. Move so much in just 24 hours!

Really damn hate this type of one directional, fast and furious trend.