Singapore Central Bank Tightens Policy
Fri Apr 13 01:10:00 2018
SINGAPORE—Singapore’s central bank Friday tightened monetary policy for the first time since 2012, scaling back its support for an economy that is enjoying its strongest spell of growth in the past four years.
The decision by the Monetary Authority of Singapore showed that its desire to normalize policy outweighed concerns about the possible impact of trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
In an expected move, the Monetary Authority of Singapore said it would allow the local currency to appreciate after two years of keeping a neutral stance to help boost growth.
Unlike most other central banks, MAS guides the Singapore dollar against a basket of currencies, rather than controlling interest rates, since trade dominates the economy.
The action is another indication that the wave of policy tightening initiated by the Federal Reserve as the global economy improves is starting to take hold in Asia, albeit at a very gradual pace.
“The measured adjustment to the policy stance takes into account the uncertainty in macroeconomic outcomes presented by ongoing trade tensions,” MAS said, adding that it would continue to closely monitor economic developments.
Many economists have pointed out that while talk by the U.S. and China over trade has been tough at times, there is still plenty of scope for negotiations to significantly reduce the extent of planned tariffs with both sides angling for a deal.
Should U.S.-China trade tensions escalate into a trade war, the initial impact on Singapore—as one of the main hubs for trade in the region—will be negative, said Song Seng Wun, an economist at CIMB Private Banking, but beyond that, it is less clear.
“If we do get a real trade war, in the longer run companies will adjust and work around the constraints and barriers,” Mr. Song said.
For now, the latest government estimates show the economy in relatively good shape. Gross domestic product expanded 4.3% from a year earlier in the first quarter of 2018, compared with 3.6% growth in the last three months of 2017. While quarter-on-quarter growth slowed, it was stronger than expected as the manufacturing sector maintained traction in the economy.
Year-over-year growth in the past three quarters has averaged over 4%, the strongest performance in four years, indicating that the economy is back on a solid growth path amid a global expansion driven in part by the U.S. economy.
Jeff Ng, the chief economist for Asia at Continuum Economics, estimates the central bank is now likely guiding the Singapore dollar 0.5% higher a year. “Our initial thought is that MAS will increase the slope again to 1% in October, barring any significant downside risks to trade,” Mr. Ng said in emailed comments after the policy was announced.
MAS doesn’t reveal details of its nominal effective exchange rate, the basket of currencies it uses, or the band within which it allows the Singapore dollar to move.
The central bank said pressures on its core inflation rate are expected to persist this year and beyond, underpinned by an improving labor market.
The MAS core inflation measure, which excludes the costs of private road transport and accommodation, edged up to average 1.6% year-over-year in the first two months of this year. Headline inflation, however, remains benign, with the consumer-price index rising 0.2% year-over-year on average in the first two months of 2018.
A lack of inflationary pressure and relative strength in local currencies against the dollar have enabled many of Asia’s central banks to keep policy on hold despite stronger growth and rising U.S. interest rates.
So far, central banks in South Korea and Malaysia have raised policy rates, while China has tweaked its short-term rates. While other banks in Asia are expected to follow, the pace of tightening is expected to be gradual.
Write to Gaurav Raghuvanshi at
gaurav.raghuvanshi@wsj.com and Saurabh Chaturvedi at
Saurabh.Chaturvedi@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 13, 2018 01:10 ET (05:10 GMT)