Is it really over for Intel®?

Intel is ...

  • dead man walking, soon to be buried

    Votes: 58 50.9%
  • will bounce back, buyed Intc at $10 sure huat!

    Votes: 56 49.1%

  • Total voters
    114

elmariachi

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Processors are moving towards chiplets (or tiles as per intel) so overclocking(tuning) ability gets harder since it is no longer monolithic unless intel gives us a monolithic P-core only like the rumoured Barlett which is still some way off (Q3'25 maybe? if true) then maybe you'll get better tuning abilities???

Anyway, below is a delidded Arrow Lake-S chip courtesy of Madness727. Take a look at the various tiles and differing nodes on differing tiles.
The compute tile, which houses the cores, is built on TSMC's advanced N3B node, while the GPU tile uses N5P, and the SoC and I/O tiles are based on the more mature N6 process. All five tiles are assembled on a base layer fabricated using Intel's 22nm FinFET technology. So yeah, no longer monolithic and of differing nodes.


To add to your reply, the hotspot has moved further north and there are offset kits to optimise the heat dissipation. I heard existing 1700 kits can be used but it would be 3-4 degrees worse because the hotspot is not the same as the earlier 12-14th gen CPUs.

Intel-Arrow-Lake-Hotspot-CPU.jpg
 

matique

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Processors are moving towards chiplets (or tiles as per intel) so overclocking(tuning) ability gets harder since it is no longer monolithic unless intel gives us a monolithic P-core only like the rumoured Barlett which is still some way off (Q3'25 maybe? if true) then maybe you'll get better tuning abilities???

Anyway, below is a delidded Arrow Lake-S chip courtesy of Madness727. Take a look at the various tiles and differing nodes on differing tiles.
The compute tile, which houses the cores, is built on TSMC's advanced N3B node, while the GPU tile uses N5P, and the SoC and I/O tiles are based on the more mature N6 process. All five tiles are assembled on a base layer fabricated using Intel's 22nm FinFET technology. So yeah, no longer monolithic and of differing nodes.



Yep, madness is a friend and several in the group already are testing ARL out. I think for me the most exciting part of ARL is DVLR and ability to further fine tune voltages. I think as an idea it's a positive move forward, but the delivery is lacking especially when the interconnect is so slow.
 

matique

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Nice. Hopefully the interconnect gets better overtime/future CPUs although AMD first zen cpus was not any better.
Back to topic though no intel won't die in fact I think the worst is behind them as they approach the end of the "5 Nodes In 4 Years" plan. It is expected to ramp up Intel 20A production later this year in Arrow Lake and begin producing Intel 18A in mid 2025. During this process, significant upfront costs associated with this roadmap will likely impact margins. However, as manufacturing volume increases, we should see a gradual expansion in margins and improved earnings growth.
As the management indicates that FY2024 is the peak for the "5 Nodes In 4 Years" driven by factory start-up costs (fab52 & 62 in Arizona). I believe the company is expected to capitalize its previous investments in FY2025. This will create a tailwind for its free cash flow as earnings growth rebounds, thereby improving its operating cash flow.
GN did a great video on intel's fab construction and what is a semiconductor fab all about and all the processes involved.

I wouldn't be too optimistic, as they are putting resources from 20a straight to 18a so i doubt there will be any 20a consumer products. Regarding their interconnect, don't think they can do much for it over microupdates. Will have to see how they bounce back.
 

watzup_ken

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Yep Intel foundry is bestest. Wasted they lost their way and allow TSMC to steal the business. The old batch of Intel engineers must be chopped! Pat must save the day!
TSMC chips are boring, squeeze until no headroom. Good enough to lelong to third parties. They ownself hang up and keep increasing prices now! Pat must save the day!

My first Intel OC, i was blown away, from 3ghz turbo to 4ghz sustained, just punch in bios. This after i changed from Amd P2X4 940, which struggled to get from 3ghz to 3.2ghz

5Ly89EC.jpeg


Intel OC headroom still can see up to 13900K but the power sucking was at its limit.
You can tune the chip to run at extreme clock speed but the side effect is the exponentially increasing power requirement. It is not sustainable when it gets increasingly more difficult to shrink these transistors and with competition so intense. I feel most CPUs or SOCs are clocked right out of the gate, as high as possible with may be another 5 to 10% overclock possible. And these marginal improvement in clockspeed is not going to make any meaningful improvement in performance in most cases.
 

matique

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You can tune the chip to run at extreme clock speed but the side effect is the exponentially increasing power requirement. It is not sustainable when it gets increasingly more difficult to shrink these transistors and with competition so intense. I feel most CPUs or SOCs are clocked right out of the gate, as high as possible with may be another 5 to 10% overclock possible. And these marginal improvement in clockspeed is not going to make any meaningful improvement in performance in most cases.

As someone who enjoys OCing, this is true. Nowadays daily OCing is more about the sum of all parts. +300-400mhz from CPU, +1000mhz to RAM, +400mhz from GPU. Overall maybe you'll look around 15% faster than stock. However, it takes a lot of effort to get here, and you would need to do lots of stability testing. Whether it's all worth it depends on the individual...
 

matique

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Optimistic maybe but the demand outlook for intel's core ultra-based AI PCs remains strong
and I believe the company can navigate near-term wafer-level supply constraints and improve
its revenue growth throughout 2025.
Intel stock is 37% below its 10-year average, indicating an attractive buying opportunity but that's just me🧐
Was just being hopeful with the interconnect thing alas it being the bane of going chiplets.

I sold most of my Intel stock the moment it started nose diving below $30, and bought a bit as it hit $19. Now I'm up by 10% ish. Still need it to climb a bit more to make up for losses 😂
 

kimsix

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You can tune the chip to run at extreme clock speed but the side effect is the exponentially increasing power requirement. It is not sustainable when it gets increasingly more difficult to shrink these transistors and with competition so intense. I feel most CPUs or SOCs are clocked right out of the gate, as high as possible with may be another 5 to 10% overclock possible. And these marginal improvement in clockspeed is not going to make any meaningful improvement in performance in most cases.

Yep just for bbfa fun, now under tsmc, do some optimisation oc can get 10% more ish improvement with small power bump.

last time Intel was king, can get 30% ish under same pattern :o

Pat must lead us back to glory!
 

Phen8210

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Yep just for bbfa fun, now under tsmc, do some optimisation oc can get 10% more ish improvement with small power bump.

last time Intel was king, can get 30% ish under same pattern :o

Pat must lead us back to glory!

See this drama
https://www.trendforce.com/news/202...ble-ai-chip-violation-involving-huaweis-910b/

Following the investigation launched by the U.S. Commerce Department on whether TSMC has manufactured smartphone or AI chips for Huawei, the foundry giant seems to have identified the underlying issue. According to a report by Reuters, TSMC announced on Tuesday that it has notified Washington about a possible effort by Huawei to bypass U.S. export restrictions.

It is worth noting that TSMC had reportedly informed the U.S. Commerce Department after receiving an order for a chip similar to Huawei’s Ascend 910B, a processor designed for training large language models, Financial Times reveals. How the chip ended up in Huawei’s possession remains unclear.

:ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO:
 

kimsix

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See this drama
https://www.trendforce.com/news/202...ble-ai-chip-violation-involving-huaweis-910b/

Following the investigation launched by the U.S. Commerce Department on whether TSMC has manufactured smartphone or AI chips for Huawei, the foundry giant seems to have identified the underlying issue. According to a report by Reuters, TSMC announced on Tuesday that it has notified Washington about a possible effort by Huawei to bypass U.S. export restrictions.

It is worth noting that TSMC had reportedly informed the U.S. Commerce Department after receiving an order for a chip similar to Huawei’s Ascend 910B, a processor designed for training large language models, Financial Times reveals. How the chip ended up in Huawei’s possession remains unclear.

:ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO:

All in Intel. USA will make Intel great again. Pat is former Intel engineer, we have to trust him. Hope can rope in Nvidia and Apple to invest like what they did for tsmc.
 

watzup_ken

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See this drama
https://www.trendforce.com/news/202...ble-ai-chip-violation-involving-huaweis-910b/

Following the investigation launched by the U.S. Commerce Department on whether TSMC has manufactured smartphone or AI chips for Huawei, the foundry giant seems to have identified the underlying issue. According to a report by Reuters, TSMC announced on Tuesday that it has notified Washington about a possible effort by Huawei to bypass U.S. export restrictions.

It is worth noting that TSMC had reportedly informed the U.S. Commerce Department after receiving an order for a chip similar to Huawei’s Ascend 910B, a processor designed for training large language models, Financial Times reveals. How the chip ended up in Huawei’s possession remains unclear.

:ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO:
In my opinion, I wonder what can the US do if they indeed find TSMC dealing with Huawei? They said they may sanction TSMC, but this will be at a severe expense of US chip manufacturer and to the benefit of China.
 

elmariachi

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In my opinion, I wonder what can the US do if they indeed find TSMC dealing with Huawei? They said they may sanction TSMC, but this will be at a severe expense of US chip manufacturer and to the benefit of China.

Whatever Huawei is doing by utilising TSMC directly or indirectly is a stop gap. You'll probably see the U.S sanction Xiaomi soon. All sanctions leads to China's innovation and fast tracking. For sure sanctioning TSMC is going to be at the detriment of U.S given their MIC is dominantly using chips produced by TSMC. Don't forget what happens to Apple too. It is going to be a train wreck. All by their own doing.

Given how impressive the Dimensity 9400 CPUs are, things will only get better not worse and it's at par or exceeded the offerings from TSMC at least with mobile SKUs.

https://www.asiafinancial.com/chinese-media-cut-reports-on-3nm-chip-designed-by-xiaomi
 

Phen8210

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In my opinion, I wonder what can the US do if they indeed find TSMC dealing with Huawei? They said they may sanction TSMC, but this will be at a severe expense of US chip manufacturer and to the benefit of China.

TSMC prefers working with the US over China. The only issue is that TSMC is from taiwan, and taiwan is part of China :whistle:.
 

SkyShroud

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Whatever Huawei is doing by utilising TSMC directly or indirectly is a stop gap. You'll probably see the U.S sanction Xiaomi soon. All sanctions leads to China's innovation and fast tracking. For sure sanctioning TSMC is going to be at the detriment of U.S given their MIC is dominantly using chips produced by TSMC. Don't forget what happens to Apple too. It is going to be a train wreck. All by their own doing.

Given how impressive the Dimensity 9400 CPUs are, things will only get better not worse and it's at par or exceeded the offerings from TSMC at least with mobile SKUs.

https://www.asiafinancial.com/chinese-media-cut-reports-on-3nm-chip-designed-by-xiaomi
They using DUV to produce these chips, yield is lower thus more costly, the profit margin isn't great. Nah, you can even question if they making any profits or surviving through government grants. Well, it doesn't matter to us consumers as long it is cheaper and better, or can affect other things to be cheaper and better. Hahahahah.
 

uselessbum

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I wonder if intel is considering something similar (ie large amount of cache) to amd's vcache. That seems to be the logical direction to head towards to rather than trying to win clock wars which has increasing diminishing returns - more power used/heat for less gains, at least in the context of gaming. They don't have to do it for their entire line-up but it could be their "gaming processor" line, just like how X3D is known for gaming.

Besides the power issues, one reason intel is losing to amd is because it is rapidly losing mindshare when it comes to the gaming segment. Basically nearly everyone on the net now is .... "if you want to game, get a x3d cpu". That's free marketing in and of itself. It's not the largest segment but gaming is one of the more prominent ones that gets headlines. Similar to how nvidia maintains mindshare through its halo product (the titans/xx90s) even if they are expensive as hell.

I know intel's chip has higher potential than x3d but it requires a hefty amount of tuning and binning (some even boast about buying and returning dozens of CPUs) along with more expensive ram while x3d is basically plug and play with ddr5 6000. Most people go for what the most convenient is. Being able to use air cooler with x3d is a bonus as well

PS: Intel did try it in the past with its short-lived broadwell processors.

:(
 
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matique

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