Jun 2024 BTO

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saikangwarrior

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coolhead said:
1.6-1.7 mil is too low imo, I'm thinking more like 2 mil based on 8% annual appreciation for 14 years.
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Essentially, the condo price must rise too. Because a lot of the prime buyers are going to be retirees cashing in on their private property
 
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cosmos001

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coolhead said:
There is lease decay I won't deny. However it's hard to say it's much faster than normal HDB lease decay.
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It's a fact though. Assume you sell as soon as your MOP hits, subsequent buyer of a HDB resale will have a HDB with 90 years lease remaining, whereas the subsequent buyer of a PLH resale only has 80 years remaining. And those numbers are fairly optimistic.

coolhead said:
How do you come to conclusion than longer mop means reduced annualised gains? However, if factoring lease decay into annualised gains that can make sense but does it take into account the gains in the initial years before the lease decay starts? E.g the actual value of the flat based on the location.
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It's basically longer holding period before you can cash out. Nowadays people flip after just 5 years but with PLH its 10. Assume the profits are about the same using a realistic selling price of PLH resale at 1.2 mil (I did the calculations, 1.1 mil is the max amount that a couple with 14k income ceiling can afford without paying additional cash on hand). Also, 10 years before you can sell equate to larger accrued interests which will eat into the profits.

coolhead said:
Downgraders, rich SPRs, children with rich parents are possible buyers of these flats.
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Downgraders cant own property within 2.5 years of buying the plh resale. Are you suggesting that they rent someplace for that long before they buy? SPR couple cannot buy plh resale. There must be a SC in the family nucleus. Children with rich parents, sure I guess..
coolhead said:
If I were to use an example of Woodleigh residences currently priced at 2.4k PSF, the nearby HDB is priced about 1.2k PSF or slightly lower which is 50% of condo sqft price, those darn sellers are crazy. Lease is similar for both.

Looking at tanjong rhu, this condo unit has 80 years lease left going for 1.9k PSF. HDB bto currently priced at $695 PSF using midpoint of $673k at 970sqft. I won't even look into the recently transacted price for HDB . Going by 50% discount of 1.9k PSF and I'm deliberately comparing it with condo 80 year lease to be conservative (with <79 year lease right), the HDB in resale will be estimated $945K. For a HDB resale at 90 year lease, it will definitely be higher, not even taking into account price inflation down the road.

https://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listing/for-sale-water-place-25183136
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Again I think the fact that these plh resales have so many restrictions make it such any type of comparisons are not apple to apple comparisons. Current HDB resales dont have 10 year MOP and restrictions on renting. How much more are you willing to pay for these versus PLH resales or vice versa? On that note you are right that we will only know 15 years down the road. But my sense is that I dont see them selling at absurd prices given that the restrictions are specifically put in place by our govt to deter such flipping.
 
coolhead

coolhead

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cosmos001 said:
It's a fact though. Assume you sell as soon as your MOP hits, subsequent buyer of a HDB resale will have a HDB with 90 years lease remaining, whereas the subsequent buyer of a PLH resale only has 80 years remaining. And those numbers are fairly optimistic.



It's basically longer holding period before you can cash out. Nowadays people flip after just 5 years but with PLH its 10. Assume the profits are about the same using a realistic selling price of PLH resale at 1.2 mil (I did the calculations, 1.1 mil is the max amount that a couple with 14k income ceiling can afford without paying additional cash on hand). Also, 10 years before you can sell equate to larger accrued interests which will eat into the profits.



Downgraders cant own property within 2.5 years of buying the plh resale. Are you suggesting that they rent someplace for that long before they buy? SPR couple cannot buy plh resale. There must be a SC in the family nucleus. Children with rich parents, sure I guess..

Again I think the fact that these plh resales have so many restrictions make it such any type of comparisons are not apple to apple comparisons. Current HDB resales dont have 10 year MOP and restrictions on renting. How much more are you willing to pay for these versus PLH resales or vice versa? On that note you are right that we will only know 15 years down the road. But my sense is that I dont see them selling at absurd prices given that the restrictions are specifically put in place by our govt to deter such flipping.
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I agree to disagree in that case.
 
lavender81

lavender81

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Property are always bound to rise and location is always a determine factor for property. 14 years later, if Jurong flat can sell 1m, this should not be lesser than 1.7m at least.
 
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LoaGong12

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Kallang one will be highly profitable when can sell. Look at the map = its a super super prime location
 
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kaputzzz

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Wah the application rates are filling up fast and furious. Selling like hotcakes!
 
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