*Official* MasterLeong Thread - Part 2

[Layers]

Did cdg reduce its taxi rental? Or just transcab?

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[Takodoro]

Reits ls sia

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FCL CXG

 

[L'oreal Paris]

I tot u got follow me hoot many reits, ok what?

u how much % in stocks how much % in cash?

55% 45 %

10char

 

[Takodoro]

Reits ls sia

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This kinda pattern I see before a few times liao.....drop a bit to shake off the weak holder before buying in bulk.

I am just gonna ride it out.

 

[Layers]

THOMSON line will smrt get or SBS get I wonder

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[L'oreal Paris]

your portfolio will grow as you save.
Early years, savings grow your portfolio faster than investment gains

not much saving

 

[dolph001]

Reits ls sia

"There are a few things of which we can be sure, and this is one ...: Extreme market behavior will reverse . Those who believe that the pendulum will move in one direction forever - or reside at an extreme forever - eventually will lose huge sums. Those who understand the pendulum's behavior can benefit enormously."
- Howard Marks

 

[Maeda_Toshiie]

all the privileged and private banking not good for astute investors de.

you have to invest in their products or keep cash in deposits to keep the account. Benefits is that you get priority queue, but I seldom go to the bank, or personal RM, which will psycho you to buy more of their products...

I only like free movie tickets, so I'll give these type of accounts 5/10.

Two things I care about for priority banking: non minimum commission for trading, and airport lounge pass. The latter is a minimal benefit anyway since I hardly travel.

 

[MasterLeong]

55% 45 %

10char

ok la, at least u got 55% in stocks

time in market beats timing the market... we said it many times already

2016 was really a good year to buy


even now sti at 3000 level... still fairly priced and okay to buy and hold for long term


maybe u can consider boarding other boats that have not left port?

example Starhub and comfort delgro? solid blue chips still

 

[MasterLeong]

Did cdg reduce its taxi rental? Or just transcab?

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all across reduce, but a bit nia... mostly for those single taxi driver renting the cab alone

CDG dropped 20% from $3 peak on such worries which I feel is overblown

to be greedy when others are fearful

my style is I like to pick up shares of blue chip with good long term fundamentals when they are hit by short term bad news like this

 

[MasterLeong]

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news...ed-by-30-last-year-lta/3432270.html?cid=fbcna

"More than S$4 billion is expected to be spent by the Government to renew, upgrade and expand Singapore's existing rail assets in the next five years."

which company(ies) is/are expected to gain from this?

I guess consumers benefit the most ba

for smrt and comfort... now is all bidding model... aka service model

so they make a fixed margin of profit... very good recurring income

and transport players take less risk... as they do not own the asset anymore... they just service and take a cut of revenues thats all

 

[MasterLeong]

what I like about CDG is the decent dividend yields of 4.2% and the upside from transport companies going into asset light model

 

[MasterLeong]

CIMB on M1

M1 Limited
Still not cheap enough to take on the risk
■ FY17F core EPS to fall 4.5% on higher subs retention cost and rising depreciation.
■ Core EPS to fall by a total of 31% in FY17-20F, impacted by TPG’s entry.
■ Despite high capex & spectrum fees, 80% payout ratio is sustainable in FY16-18F.
■ Some risk for 700MHz in the general spectrum auction but largely manageable.
■ Maintain Hold; target price cut by 9.5% to S$1.90. Good entry point is below S$1.56.
M1’s revenue and earnings outlook in FY17F
We expect M1’s service revenue to be flat in FY17F. Mobile revenues should fall (-1.8%)
due to lower international roaming/voice usage and negative effects from last year’s simonly
plans and some downtrading activities. This will be offset by further growth in Fixed
Services (+18.2%), driven by Enterprise contracts won at end-2016. EBITDA/core EPS
could ease 1.1%/4.5% as we see higher retention cost to lock in mobile subs ahead of
TPG’s entry in mid-2018 and rising depreciation on sustained high capex.
Earnings downhill in FY18-20F
We forecast M1’s EBITDA to decline 14.8% (core EPS: -31.0%) in FY17-20F due to
TPG’s entry. We are factoring in a 10% impact on mobile ARPU (base case), on top of
the already sizeable ARPU erosion (post/prepaid: -10%/-27%) across FY15-17F due to
incumbents’ new offers launched in 2016, positioning themselves ahead of TPG’s entry.
ARPU impact: what is a realistic range?
Given the high degree of uncertainty, we have run a scenario analysis based on 5-15%
ARPU impact across FY17-20F, which we believe is a realistic range. Assuming a
5%/15% ARPU impact (bull/bear case), we forecast M1’s EBITDA falling 6.7%/22.8%
(core EPS: -16.5%/-45.4%) across the 3-year period. While a bigger impact is not
impossible, an even more aggressive price undercutting from TPG could push EBITDA
breakeven for its Singapore mobile business beyond 7 years, we estimate.
Capex to stay high; 80% payout sustainable but yields to decline
We raise our capex assumptions for FY17/18F by 7-8% to S$140m/130m, as our recent
meeting with M1 suggests continued fiber investments to drive the Enterprise Fixed
Services business growth and meet its mobile backhaul needs. Despite this, chunky
spectrum payments and competition threat, we expect M1 to maintain its 80% payout
ratio in FY16-18 as net debt/EBITDA will rise to a peak of 1.5x at end-FY18F, then ease.
Still, we see yields falling from 6.6% in FY16F to 4.4% by FY20F, in line with core EPS.
Assessing the risk from GSA
The key risk from the general spectrum auction (GSA) will be the 700MHz, as TPG
cannot bid for 900MHz, and 2500MHz is less valuable. However, this risk is partly
mitigated by the regulator’s spectrum caps, which limits TPG’s bid to a max 2x5MHz.
Our base case is M1 winning 2x15MHz for S$90m, or 50% above reserve price. If the
final price is double/triple the reserve price, the impact to our DCF-based target price is -
1.2%/-3.7%, while net debt/EBITDA will peak at a manageable 1.6x/1.8x at end-FY18.
Maintain Hold; entry point is below S$1.56
We adjust our FY16F/17F/18F EBITDA by +1.3/-3.7%/+2.3% (core EPS: +2.1%/-6.5%/
+4.4%), due to higher handset subsidies and ARPU erosion in FY17 and 6-month delay
to TPG’s launch in FY18. Including higher capex, we cut M1’s DCF-based target price
by 9.5% to S$1.90 and maintain Hold. A good entry point would be below our bear case
fair value of S$1.56 and exit point above our bull case fair value of S$2.18. Upside/
downside risks are better-/worse- than-expected impact of TPG’s entry.

 

[MasterLeong]

even with cimb bearish report on M1, its still forecasted to pay over 6% yield at current prices

 

[MasterLeong]

Sembcorp Industries poised to be powered by utilities growth in emerging markets
By Jude Chan / theedgemarkets.com.sg | January 12, 2017 : 10:53 AM MYT
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SINGAPORE (Jan 12): OCBC Investment Research is keeping Sembcorp Industries (SCI) at “buy” with a higher fair value estimate of $3.36, powered by a positive outlook on its utilities segment.

“Marine continues to be a risk for the group, but we like the long-term growth prospects of the utilities segment which has exposure to developing markets,” says OCBC lead analyst Low Pei Han in a Wednesday report.

SCI has so far grown its operations to 14 countries, and looks especially strong in Asia as a leading developer, owner and operator of energy and water assets.

“The group is well-positioned to seize emerging market opportunities with its strong track record,” Low says.

In particular, Low highlights the less cyclical nature of the utilities industry as well as SCI’s growing overseas segment and its proven ability to develop and execute large-scale greenfield projects.

“At current levels, the utilities stub is trading at about 0.75x book, which we feel is unjustified for a division that has in the past five years (and also likely in the future) netted ROEs of between 14-22%,” says Low.

In Singapore, however, Low says SCI could incur higher marketing expenses in the face of competition due to overcapacity in the power generation market as well as an impending liberalisation of the retail electricity market.

As at 10.45am, Sembcorp Industries is trading 7 cents higher at $3.10.

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[joshuatangua]

Wow, reits Lao sai

 

[MasterLeong]

One shopping mall REIT that offers stability
By Gwyneth Yeo / theedgemarkets.com.sg | January 12, 2017 : 12:51 PM MYT
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SINGAPORE (Jan 12): SPH REIT has reported a healthy set of results for 1QFY17, with group revenue of $52.6 million achieving 24.3% of OCBC Investment Research’s full-year estimates.

OCBC’s analysts Andy Wong and Eli Lee explained that the improvements came from the higher rental income from Paragon, despite the stagnant income from The Clementi Mall.

Net property income also improved 3.3% to $41.4 million from lower tariff rates on utilities and lower maintenance expenses.

The REIT’s distribution payout ratio was 94% during the quarter, after the REIT retained $2.2 million in distributable income and paid distributions per unit of 1.34 cents, a 0.8% increase over 1QFY16.

The analysts said that the retained income would likely be distributed in subsequent quarters and added that 1QFY17’s DPU represented 24% of OCBC’s full year DPU forecast for SPH REIT.

SPH REIT’s portfolio also remained stable, with positive rental reversions in both properties. Overall portfolio rental reversion was 4.6% and occupancy remained at 100%. Visitor traffic also remained stable at 12 million

Furthermore, the group’s gearing was stable at 25.7% at end Nov, and 85.9% of its debt is currently on a fixed rate basis with no refinancing requirements up to 2018.

To that end, the brokerage has maintained its “buy” recommendation for the stock, with a fair value of $1.04.

Units of SPH REIT are up 1 cent at 98 cents on Thursday.

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[MasterLeong]

Wow, reits Lao sai

red means good time to buy lor hahahahahaha

shop for shopping malls and office buildings LOL LOL LOL

 

[lewissac]

even with cimb bearish report on M1, its still forecasted to pay over 6% yield at current prices

Usually whatever figures or value they forecasted I usually take it with a pinch of salt; minus 1.5x of whatever value they projected/predicted.

 

[lewissac]

One shopping mall REIT that offers stability
By Gwyneth Yeo / theedgemarkets.com.sg | January 12, 2017 : 12:51 PM MYT
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Translated by Google Translator:
Select Language*▼
SINGAPORE (Jan 12): SPH REIT has reported a healthy set of results for 1QFY17, with group revenue of $52.6 million achieving 24.3% of OCBC Investment Research’s full-year estimates.

OCBC’s analysts Andy Wong and Eli Lee explained that the improvements came from the higher rental income from Paragon, despite the stagnant income from The Clementi Mall.

Net property income also improved 3.3% to $41.4 million from lower tariff rates on utilities and lower maintenance expenses.

The REIT’s distribution payout ratio was 94% during the quarter, after the REIT retained $2.2 million in distributable income and paid distributions per unit of 1.34 cents, a 0.8% increase over 1QFY16.

The analysts said that the retained income would likely be distributed in subsequent quarters and added that 1QFY17’s DPU represented 24% of OCBC’s full year DPU forecast for SPH REIT.

SPH REIT’s portfolio also remained stable, with positive rental reversions in both properties. Overall portfolio rental reversion was 4.6% and occupancy remained at 100%. Visitor traffic also remained stable at 12 million

Furthermore, the group’s gearing was stable at 25.7% at end Nov, and 85.9% of its debt is currently on a fixed rate basis with no refinancing requirements up to 2018.

To that end, the brokerage has maintained its “buy” recommendation for the stock, with a fair value of $1.04.

Units of SPH REIT are up 1 cent at 98 cents on Thursday.

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This is what im interested to get. But it seems slightly overvalued atm?