*Official* MasterLeong Thread - Part 2

[investmentsiao]

welcome on board mate ^^

Thanks.
Currently i am holding CCT, CMT and CDG now waiting for MCT.

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[JuzMobile]

Long term downtrend, if break $2.4, it's all the way...

Seems like mod bearish on CDG.
CDG not my taste, not vested.

 

[Arsenalz]

2.40 is like one year or two year low
So should be quite strong support level

52w low at 2.39. Already had some avg 2.66. 2.40 to avg down.

 

[MasterLeong]

lian beng trading at 60% discount to book

value or trap?

 

[MasterLeong]

52w low at 2.39. Already had some avg 2.66. 2.40 to avg down.

from 3.00 level dropped to like 2.40 level, down 20% from peak riao

but I think earnings likely to be flat to down 5%

so much fear in the market due to worries of its taxi business

I no more cash riao, if not sure hoot more CDG

 

[JuzMobile]

lian beng trading at 60% discount to book

value or trap?

Both.
Its a value trap.

 

[MasterLeong]

daiwa on CDG

What's new: We met ComfortDelGro (CDG) recently for a business
update. In 2017, we recommend investors focus on CDG’s bus and rail
segments, which present opportunities for sustainable earnings growth
over the longer term, while its taxi segment is likely to remain competitive.
What's the impact: Recent news highlighting taxi operator TransCab’s
move to reduce rental rates for “single-shift” drivers elevated investor
concern over competition in the Singapore taxi market. We see TransCab’s
announcement as timed to take advantage of the regulator’s recent easing
of taxi availability (TA) standards, in a bid to improve its fleet utilisation
(~89%) by renting out its idle (and older) vehicles, an issue we had flagged
previously (see Singapore taxi operations remain resilient, 12 October
2015). Our channel checks indicate that other smaller operators have made
similar revisions to their rental rates, mainly targeted at new drivers.
While CDG said it has no intention to revise its rates as fleet utilisation is
currently close to 100%, we believe the company may come under heightened
pressure to do so in the near term. However, we believe CDG’s taxi segment
performance could be supported as: 1) 80% of its taxi fleet is shared between
two drivers, 2) stricter regulations on private hire drivers to be implemented in
1H17 could curb competition, and 3) there remains a 2% cap on taxi fleet
growth. We estimate that a 30% reduction in overall rental rates (not just single
shift) would result in a 4% reduction in our 2017 net profit forecasts.
Meanwhile, CDG said the transition of its Singapore bus segment to the new
contracting model since September 2016 is moving inline with expectations
and sees profitability rising in 2017 – we expect 4Q16 results may reveal the
extent of such margin improvement. In the rail segment, the tender on the
upcoming Thomson East-Coast Line (TEL) should be called in 1Q17. On our
calculations, TEL could post revenue of c.SGD174m when all 31 stations are
operational, while CDG’s ridership market share could rise to 50% based on
existing ridership levels across the rail network, should it secure the contract.
What we recommend: We reaffirm our Buy (1) rating and DCF-based 12-
month TP of SGD3.67. In our view, CDG’s defensive business model,
sustainable earnings growth profile and 2017E dividend yield of 4% remain
key investment merits. CDG is also one of Daiwa’s top small-cap picks in
AxJ (see The balance of power lies with Asia’s small caps, 8 December
2016). The key risk to our call would be unfavourable regulatory policies.
How we differ: We continue to believe the attractiveness of a new
contracting model for CDG’s Singapore bus segment may be underappreciated
by some in the market.

 

[lbs]

Wah hock Lian Seng

 

[MasterLeong]

my current top pick in this market is CDG, with forward yield of 4%

bearish on taxi business but bullish long term as transport is still always key the the economy

I see their taxi earnings coming down but bus/mrt earnings increase should help attain balance

cheers

 

[MasterLeong]

copy and paste from my investing note page

TP $3.00, SL $2.00

With forward yields of 4%, CDG makes a good dividend blue chip along with an expected long term earnings growth rate of 5%.
Taxi earnings is likely to come down due to pressure from uber/grab, however comfort still remains the leader at over 50% market share.
Bus earnings is gonna improve for sure as the new contracting model fully kicks in.
MRT earnings is also gonna improve with the opening of more stations and the coming bid for TEL as a potential catalyst.

 

[MasterLeong]

Wah hock Lian Seng

whats with HLS?????????

 

[lbs]

Probably going to privatise soon. Lol

 

[MasterLeong]

Probably going to privatise soon. Lol

http://www.sharesinv.com/J2T/

seems to be near book value already

I doubt anyone will pay premium to book for it ba


usually privatise is like super cheap 0.3-0.5 book then the owner offer like 0.7 book to bully small time investors

HLS feels more speculative nowadays, but huat huat to those who boarded, this average didi have a lot of HLS

 

[Perisher]

Near book value with privatisation?
The divy quite high.
TA also good.

 

[jmapsmylife]

Wa if privatisation is it a good or a bad thing. Me still new dun uds.

Near book value with privatisation?
The divy quite high.
TA also good.

 

[MasterLeong]

Wa if privatisation is it a good or a bad thing. Me still new dun uds.

Usually done at premium to market price
So its a good thing
If it happens

 

[jmapsmylife]

Thanks. Let's see if price can hold till close. Maybe bb wanna play

Usually done at premium to market price
So its a good thing
If it happens

 

[jmapsmylife]

Dun emo. My procurri $600+ losses still holding

Than I wait liao lo cannot avg out

100+++ losses liao

 

[lbs]

http://www.sharesinv.com/J2T/

seems to be near book value already

I doubt anyone will pay premium to book for it ba


usually privatise is like super cheap 0.3-0.5 book then the owner offer like 0.7 book to bully small time investors

HLS feels more speculative nowadays, but huat huat to those who boarded, this average didi have a lot of HLS

HLS is one of the better stocks in SGX... low leverage, high ROA/E, low PE... too bad I sold it to buy Singtel.

I am just guessing that it could be privatisation. Volume is really high since Sep.

 

[Layers]

This CDG huh. Looking to add at 2.40.

Ytd someone said not possible unless GBP LS :3

Not true. Most of the time having wedding is guy side request. Usually girls side not so demanding on that. And Reno loan is depend on individual. As for me house as long livable can no need spend much on Reno. Honeymoon part can also dun need.

I have fren who wanna plan for marriage, house loan alone can kill them so I told them take away honeymoon and wedding and I kana scold. Sometime they think too beautifully that they can handle all the cost but soon they will realise they can't and their marriage will have prob. Same like debt will cause company to be in trouble rs also.

Typical

There is no 'Singapore Dream' - to me is a nightmare. but i consider myself prepared for this heavy burden as we have been saving for this since 2010, when we got together and i started working.

in 2017, i am getting married by Q1, and new house with reno comes by Q2. banquet was necessary as her parents are traditionalist, but i have no qualms, they really paid more then what we bargained for; they actually gave us a new car as our wedding present.

not what i was looking for as car is a liability, but u get what i mean when i find it selfish to only think of myself when they actually paid far more then i could ever saved. Banquet could cost a nett loss of 20k, reno will cost 60k, and we have set aside combined 100k just for this purpose as of end 2016.

All this meanwhile, as i still managed to accumulate a 'separate investment portfolio' of close to 100k by the time i am 30, all while paying 20% take home income to parents for these 7 years.

so u can say i managed to take my cake and still ate it.

wow 100k. FA liao for me

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