this one looks more reasonable
5 ‘must buy’ stocks to make the best of 2017 market: Deutsche
By Michelle Zhu / theedgemarkets.com.sg | December 7, 2016 : 1:32 PM MYT
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SINGAPORE (Dec 7): Deutsche Bank expects Singapore to reach a cyclical bottom in 2017, particularly the real estate and offshore & marine (O&M) sectors, on improvement in external demand and likely pro-growth policies.
“We also expect Singapore to continue with the current structural reform and to shift towards building a Smart Nation. Restructuring and rebuilding Singapore champions could be a key focus in 2017,” observe analysts Joy Wang and Chien-Fie Man in a Tuesday report.
Noting that stock prices have moved significantly towards the end of 2016, the research house believes 2017 is likely to see more uncertainties, coupled with a still-challenging fundamental outlook and a rising rates environment.
Under these two key themes of ‘Smart Nation’ and ‘better capital management’ for 2017, Deutsche Bank has therefore identified five stocks as its top “buy” picks for the New Year:
1. SingTel (target price: $4.45)
Analyst Srini Rao forecasts a 3-year CAGR (FY17-20E) revenue and EPS of 2.8% and 9.8% respectively for SingTel, and is convinced the telco will be a major beneficiary of Singapore’s Internet of Things (IoT) project, Smart Nation. Its enterprise division accounts for 35% of core EBIT, which he thinks will benefit from the infrastructure build-out and associated services of the Smart Nation programme.
Rao also thinks SingTel’s Optus business in Australia “should make modest share gains” despite a competitive landscape, while SingTel’s potential initial public offering (IPO) of NetLink Trust would provide an opportunity for a one-time special dividend.
2. SingPost (target price: $1.85)
Deutsche Bank is remaining positive on Singapore Post’s (SingPost’s) growth prospects for a variety of reasons. For starters, analyst Joshua Lee believes the market seems to be undervaluing SingPost’s mail business at $1.64 per share as at Dec 6.
“We expect Chinese inbound tourism into Singapore to register a CAGR of 18% over 2015-2020E, and we believe this will drive overall growth at Changi Airport,” he adds. Looking ahead, the analyst projects the company’s refocus on integration to lift ROE by 3 percentage points to about 14% by March FY19E, and drive a 205 topline CAGR over FY16-19E.
3. SATS (target price: $5.79)
Joe Liew, another analyst at Deutsche Bank, likes SATS for its “dominant position in Singapore’s aviation and food solutions business” as well as its “long-term attractive business growth supported by strong Chinese inbound tourism to Singapore, and capacity expansion of Changi airport”.
Liew also highlights the stock for its “solid fundamentals” with a net cash position in the balance sheet and stable 4-5% FCF yield, reflecting financials strength which he believes SATS can use to make value-accretive acquisitions or increase dividend flow to shareholders.
4. CapitaLand (target price: $4.05)
CapitaLand should remain focused on improving its ROE through its initiatives including cost reduction and project completion cycles, according to analyst Joy Wang. She also emphasises that the developer could be a likely first mover on any potential restructuring and increasing dividend payout.
“This, coupled with likely strong earnings growth in the medium term and the undemanding valuation, should enable the Group to catch up in performance. The stock is trading at a 23% discount to book and a 34% discount to Deutsche Bank RNAV estimates,” notes Wang.
5. DBS (target price: $18.50)
As DBS has the highest developed market exposure among the three Singapore banks, analyst Franco Lam thinks the stock is now more geared to benefit from a rate-rise scenario due to less vulnerability to risks of potential liquidity outflow in emerging markets (EM). Lam also believes the strength of its wealth management franchise will continue to be an impetus for DBS’s earnings growth, boosted by its recent tie-up with Manulife to form a bancassurance agreement.
“The bank also benefits from the best CASA franchise among the three banks at 62%, providing an additional lever to take advantage of rising rates,” he adds. At the same time, Lam also acknowledges DBS as Deutsche Bank’s top pick and only “buy” call in the Singapore banking space.
As at 12.05pm, shares of SingTel, SingPost, SATS, CapitaLand and DBS are trading at $3.77, $1.46, $4.75, $3.08 and $18.30 respectively.