*Official* MasterLeong Thread

[MasterLeong]

Carry trade ? Very clever never knew REITS will do that. Borrow SGD and buy JB property!

actually the basic of all reits is carry trades

a carry trade means u borrow low and invest high

reits borrow at 3% and buy properties of 99 years that yields 5% or more

 

[MasterLeong]

tis is why i like companies which invest in good IR...

those under capitaland family, fraser family and maple family are all very well managed and presented for sure

for reits... I will only for those under these 3 families if possible

I have suntec which is under ARA... so so nia

 

[lewissac]

Interesting. Learn something new again on debt performance of REIT. Thanks ML.

 

[lewissac]

Today share performance very positive. most of the picks go up averagely 1% and above.

 

[Genosis]

SATS cd come in today lor.....

 

[MasterLeong]

Interesting. Learn something new again on debt performance of REIT. Thanks ML.

no worries u guys are most welcomed

if got huat on reits 2017 can have gathering... treat u all jiak KFC

I book the whole JEM KFC down LOL

 

[MasterLeong]

banks like kanna profit taking, they ran up too much recently

 

[lewissac]

banks like kanna profit taking, they ran up too much recently

Haha today's bank's like steady abit leh. Drop back slightly from what I see now on DBS and OCBC.

 

[lightchaser]

http://www.fraserscentrepointtrust.... Results/2016/Q4/FCT_Results_Slides_4Q16.ashx

FCT slide 19

This one dun say whether floating or fixed rate...

 

[MasterLeong]

reits and telco having a good run up ahead of rate hikes

I guess investors already factored in next week rates up 0.25 to 0.5%

 

[MasterLeong]

This one dun say whether floating or fixed rate...

slide 17.........

only 60% fixed... so lower borrowing costs but higher risk

FCT is also not blue chip

 

[MasterLeong]

also do note that FCT borrowing rate is only 2.1%

FCT borrowing rate much lower than CMT's 3% as it takes more risk
thus FCT shows a higher dividend payout than CMT

6% vs 5.7% if taking yesterday's prices

 

[mcsane]

i doubt market is ready for 0.5%

 

[MasterLeong]

if I had to rank my 5 reits in terms of risk

lowest risk to highest risk

CMT
CCT
MCT
SUN
FCT

 

[MasterLeong]

i doubt market is ready for 0.5%

if see bloomberg, over 90% chance this month will up another 0.25% as the 2nd hike for 2016

0% -> 0.25% -> 0.5%(december)

 

[MasterLeong]

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/11/22/odds-of-a-december-rate-hike-100-2-briefly/

 

[MasterLeong]

http://www.global-rates.com/interest-rates/central-banks/central-bank-america/fed-interest-rate.aspx

http://www.global-rates.com/images/charts/gr-**-chart-12-1002.jpg

as u all can see, during 07 rates were as high as 5% before the crash

and now rates are still less than 1%


a crash coming????? I do note think so... maybe reach 3% then will crash ba



also to note... interest rates were never more than 8% and never lower than 0% (US has never done negative rates before like what japan and europe did)

SG is more related to US rates than to japan or europe


so what is considered a NORMAL RATE?

experts say that normal rates should be around 2-3% as a healthy level....

I am not a rates specialist... I am just a stock picker

LOL

 

[neoartz]

i doubt market is ready for 0.5%

After brexit, trump victory and Italy voting result, most of yield based counters already went down a lot.

IMHO, yield based related sectors in US and SG already priced in the Rate Hike. Now the key thing is how auntie Yellen project the thesis of rate hike for year 2017

Last year up 0.25% also didn't crash much The major correction was due to China side

This time round maybe down for 1 trading session then CXG again. just saying nia.. don't flame me

P.S: Take it with a pinch of salt

 

[Daimon]

http://www.global-rates.com/interest-rates/central-banks/central-bank-america/fed-interest-rate.aspx

http://www.global-rates.com/images/charts/gr-**-chart-12-1002.jpg

as u all can see, during 07 rates were as high as 5% before the crash

and now rates are still less than 1%


a crash coming????? I do note think so... maybe reach 3% then will crash ba

John Taylor....... The guy who will do that.

Mark my words in 2018.

 

[MasterLeong]

change date percentage
december 16 2015 0.500 %
december 16 2008 0.250 %
october 29 2008 1.000 %
october 08 2008 1.500 %
april 30 2008 2.000 %
march 18 2008 2.250 %
january 30 2008 3.000 %
january 22 2008 3.500 %
december 11 2007 4.250 %
october 31 2007 4.500 %


only after 7 years of low rates of 0-0.25% then last year december they up it by 0.25%

so 99.99999999 % they have to up another 0.25% in this 16 december 2016

so next friday rates will go up by 0.25% that's what people are expecting

if rates never go up, stocks will rally like siao

if rates go up 0.25% i think markets will remain stable...

if rates go up 0.5%, i think markets will face a short term correction

thats my view and i may be WRONG