by ocbc research
Frasers Centrepoint Trust
Expected to stay resilient
Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT), which owns a portfolio of suburban
retail malls in Singapore, is expected to stay resilient despite headwinds
facing Singapore’s retail scene, in our view. We attribute this to its welllocated
malls in populous residential areas and strong track record of
its management team. FCT has delivered positive DPU growth every
year since its IPO in 2006, with a CAGR of 6.9% from FY06-FY16.
Operationally, FCT secured robust positive rental reversions of 9.9% in
FY16, which was a four-year high. It also has a healthy balance sheet, as
gearing ratio of 28.3% (as at 30 Sep 2016) remains one of the lowest
within the S-REITs universe.
Short term pain for long term gain
Looking ahead, we project FCT to register flat DPU growth of 0.1% in
FY17. However, this is largely due to the ongoing major renovation
works at Northpoint, which is its second largest mall in terms of income
contribution. Northpoint’s occupancy is estimated to range between
72%-80% from Oct to Dec 2016, and 58%-77% from Jan to Mar next
year. Average occupancy during this period is expected to be 71%. Post
completion of this asset enhancement initiative (AEI) in Sep 2017,
management expects average gross rental rates at Northpoint to be
boosted by ~9%, although the net lettable area is projected to be
reduced by 4%. We forecast FCT’s FY18 DPU to rebound by 2.7% to 12.1
S cents. Based on our forecasts and a closing price of S$1.955, FCT
offers investors a distribution yield of 6.0% and 6.2%, respectively.
Maintain BUY and S$2.33 fair value estimate on FCT