*Official* MasterLeong Thread

[lewissac]

I was thinking like you in 2007. Question is how much dry powder are you left? If still many, that's good.

If little, good luck. Wait till you experience a 40-50% plunge in asset prices and you will know how it feels.

Not to worry, I'm not emptying my warchest. My current stock is about 40% of my warchest. I'm still holding my them hard too.

 

[MasterLeong]

actually the key thing is... STI fell from 3500 to 2500.. a 30% decline.. so is this a crash?

I consider it a crash and have deployed all my cash

but it seems many do not consider it a crash and are waiting for a 50% decline?

how come ?

 

[Asphodeli]

depending on what kinda stock

for me.. my dbs now sitting on 20% gains i also never sell.. as my TP is around 1.2 times book before I would consider TP


however if its a dividend stock of 5%... 15% return is 3 years dividends liao... can take for sure


what stock is it

Haha quite complex la. The money was in a foreign currency ETF paying around 4% dividend annually

Sent from Sony E6533 using GAGT

 

[MasterLeong]

in 07-08 GFC the STI fell i think 50-55% from 3800 level to 1600 level... I dont think this kinda drop comes very often... maybe once in 20 years only

the other drops are the 2011-12 european crisis in which we saw the sti fall 20% from 3300 to 2700 level

and the 2015-16 oil crisis in which we saw the sti fall 30% from 3500 to 2500 level

looking at this 3 events, maybe we can say that a 20-50% correction comes once every 4 years?????

 

[MasterLeong]

Haha quite complex la. The money was in a foreign currency ETF paying around 4% dividend annually

Sent from Sony E6533 using GAGT

if small position just keep lor

if big position can consider selling half to lock in some profits

cheers

 

[MasterLeong]

in 07-08 GFC the STI fell i think 50-55% from 3800 level to 1600 level... I dont think this kinda drop comes very often... maybe once in 20 years only

the other drops are the 2011-12 european crisis in which we saw the sti fall 20% from 3300 to 2700 level

and the 2015-16 oil crisis in which we saw the sti fall 30% from 3500 to 2500 level

looking at this 3 events, maybe we can say that a 20-50% correction comes once every 4 years?????

Up for discussion of the day

maybe the next correction will be around 2019-2020?????

 

[starfish.starfish]

actually the key thing is... STI fell from 3500 to 2500.. a 30% decline.. so is this a crash?

I consider it a crash and have deployed all my cash

but it seems many do not consider it a crash and are waiting for a 50% decline?

how come ?

Not all stocks will become value for money at the same time. So it's not timing the market when you have a sizeable war-chest.

 

[limjq44]

ML, want to ask ah.. if I invest in a certain stock and I notice a drop trend, after how many % drop then I should sell?

 

[MasterLeong]

DBS continues to slide
$17 or $16 looks like a good entry level

 

[foursea]

SSI warriors looking at reits again. I re-enter FCT @1.895

 

[MasterLeong]

ML, want to ask ah.. if I invest in a certain stock and I notice a drop trend, after how many % drop then I should sell?

What you trying to do there is setting a stop loss
That method is more of trading position or fifo

Example you bought keppel corp at $6, as a trading position
You think the odds of it going up is higher so u put a stop loss near 10% and a take profit near 10% too
SL 5.40
TP 6.60

For buy and hold positions, SL is not recommended
If u bought singtel at 4.00 and it drops 10% to 3.60 you want to buy more and if it drops to 3.20 u want to buy and hold even more of this great company at such a cheap price

Get it?

 

[lewissac]

DBS continues to slide
$17 or $16 looks like a good entry level

$14 possible?

 

[sgdividends]

I guess maybe different ppl got different comfort level of holding cash ba

for me, i tend to hold the most is 20% cash only

during this downturn when sti fell from 3500 to 2500, i see it as the oil crisis and have deployed all and more of my funds into the market already

thus the 300k portfolio seen now

Are you stockbrokerplaypoker? no more website?

 

[Takodoro]

in 07-08 GFC the STI fell i think 50-55% from 3800 level to 1600 level... I dont think this kinda drop comes very often... maybe once in 20 years only

the other drops are the 2011-12 european crisis in which we saw the sti fall 20% from 3300 to 2700 level

and the 2015-16 oil crisis in which we saw the sti fall 30% from 3500 to 2500 level

looking at this 3 events, maybe we can say that a 20-50% correction comes once every 4 years?????

Past trends are not very useful to predict the future nowadays with increased globalization.

I feel the general trend nowadays is funds will flow to where-ever the hot-spot are, rising USD --> US, falling USD --> Gold/JPY/CHF, Stagnant USD --> where got more chance to grow.

IMHO, 07-08 crisis is due to house loan default --> falling of big player --> trigger economic repercussion, i.e. domino effect and big crash.

Euro managed to prevent the fall of Greece in 11-12, hence no domino effect. But there is still a major correction.

15-16 is more akin to bubble burst like dot com, but the big major players can still ride out the storm, hence no domino effect leading to big crash.

Personally, I feel that it is onwards and upwards for the next few years till there is technical correction. But I shall always kept some spare ammo just in case.

 

[MasterLeong]

Are you stockbrokerplaypoker? no more website?

My blog and sgxcafe all removed due to attack by trolls
Recently restarted by opening this thread only
The knowledge all still inside my mind

 

[Takodoro]

Singtel defending 3.67~3.68~3.69 furiously.

 

[MasterLeong]

$14 possible?

Nope
Many waiting for this boat

At 1 times book value near 17.40 may see some support

 

[MasterLeong]

Are you stockbrokerplaypoker? no more website?

U last time got follow my blog?

 

[MasterLeong]

Reits and telcos seems a bit green today

 

[Takodoro]

Nope
Many waiting for this boat

At 1 times book value near 17.40 may see some support

I saw 17.5 looks tempting....But shall undercut 17.40.