Official Shiny Things thread—Part III

[ftpofmpo]

First, ask yourself which are the unaffected industries not affected by corona-virus?

Then, ask yourself do you think just the few unaffected industries can absorb all the money are used to be loan to all the other affected industries?

While Fed can be lending out cash at unprecedented levels, who is going to borrow? And can Fed's cash kill the corona-virus world-wide?

So you see, corona-virus is the problem that cannot be killed by Fed's massive cash throwing, so expect a prolonged and historically most terrible global recession if there is no vaccine and no cure for corona-virus in another 3 months.

those companies with cash flow issues need the loans in the absence of revenue to cover operating and maintence, and are looking to secure loans

 

[chrisloh65]

First, even if they get the loans temporarily, but with corona-virus spreading and little to no customers, how long can they last?

And if I can think of that, the banks would have predicted that much better and unwilling to loan them because they will go bankrupt and their loans unable to collect back and become losses to the banks itself. So why would banks want to loan them in the first place then?

those companies with cash flow issues need the loans in the absence of revenue to cover operating and maintence, and are looking to secure loans

 

[Torenoo]

if the fed is lending out cash at unprecedented levels at close to zero, can't banks just loan them out to all systematically affected industries/companies who otherwise are profitable during normal times?

ironically, the actual scenario on the ground in the last few days is vastly different

ie - the fed's near zero rate VS what corporations actually get in the real market

 

[Purplestars]

Risk tolerance. That’s one more thing to talk about today.

Shiny has never touched on this topic, and have you go 110-age for asset allocation.

As the crisis go on I’m starting to feel the heat as well. Even though I knew better than to blindly follow Shiny’s recommendation, the 110-age recommendation is a high bar to set and influenced us to over commit.

I could have pared down my stock allocation by another 10% and that would have made me much more comfortable now.

 

[cassowary18]

Fed is buying up ETFs. That's unprecedented.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-is-going-to-buy-etfs-what-does-it-mean-2020-03-23

 

[Johnpierpontmorgan]

Fed is buying up ETFs. That's unprecedented.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-is-going-to-buy-etfs-what-does-it-mean-2020-03-23

Fed already announce Unlimited QE
It’s printing money like confetti


Qe to infinity and beyond!!!


That’s what I have been posting several times over the last few years

 

[Johnpierpontmorgan]

warren buffett invested a pile into delta air just when it dipped slightly, he's so confident it won't go bankrupt? has he lost his midas touch?

Surely he has insider news the bailout to delta is substantial enough for the company to live on

 

[12retire]

Clearing & Trading fees

I just put in a buy trade at DBS Vickers.

Noticed there are clearing fees and trading fees.

Are these fees standard across all brokers?

 

[kram62]

I just put in a buy trade at DBS Vickers.

Noticed there are clearing fees and trading fees.

Are these fees standard across all brokers?

If you traded on SGX, yes. These fees are not from the broker, they are from the stock exchange itself.

 

[Torenoo]

Do u guys feel a V shape or U shape

 

[FrostWurm]

Do u guys feel a V shape or U shape

W-shaped

 

[chrisloh65]

Likely WL shape?

W-shaped

 

[flowerpalms]

With ur method buying only when the price is lower than previous, how do you do rebalancing?

It is a very good point. For a more accurate analysis, I will have to include the dividend yield. It will make the calculations a lot more complicated, and I'm quite lazy to do .

Anyways, let's simplify things again. Assume we go with your numbers, if we delay US$1,000 by one month, that'll cost about US$1.40 in lost dividends on average. But remember that we also saved on commission by not placing a trade at that time. The commission amount varies between brokers and the amount invested, but again for simplicity sake, let's put it at US$1.40 per trade of US$1,000. The two then cancel out each other, and the analysis still holds.

Good idea to try IWDA, will do if I have time. But IWDA does not have a very long historical data at the moment (e.g. 20 years). Maybe I will come back in 10 years time to do

 

[BBCWatcher]

Do u guys feel a V shape or U shape

W-shaped

Likely WL shape?

Or J? M? N?

 

[flowerpalms]

V shape

10 chars

Do u guys feel a V shape or U shape

 

[MaoZeDuo]

Any considerations to be made using local platform (e.g. tigerbrokers) vs US based like ibkr? Wanna invest $200 per month. But also thinking to invest a lump sum 2k first (in iwda).

 

[Torenoo]

looks like we have the first bounce coming tonight

 

[chrisloh65]

Let me guess: Go up for 2 days (Wednesday and Thursday) and crash on Friday again?

looks like we have the first bounce coming tonight

 

[Torenoo]

possible? in times like these, many fear holding over the weekends

 

[flowerpalms]

Just hold only. Keep your DCA on point

possible? in times like these, many fear holding over the weekends