Official Shiny Things thread—Part III

[highsulphur]

Usd is really getting stopped out

 

[moolala]

Usd is really getting stopped out

what you mean?

you mean its losing strength?

 

[swan02]

I’m glad usd is dropping. Or else how r we gonna expect the s&p 500 to go further up given its high valuations n our iwda has **** loads of it.

That’s why we need gold to protect against this USD FX lose as we r peering in the eyes as a SGD investor.

the other option is to buy more asian and Chinese and Europe stocks or mix with gold.

but ultimately we also need to b wary when USD asserts it’s safe haven crown early yesterday. Gold was hit but not as bad as stocks. The best out of vusd, iwda and eimi was obviously vusd.

So I conclude for good diversification is

1. If u have lots of vusd. U better have some gold or Asian or Europe stocks. But then with ex-vusd stocks, u r exposed both equity and FX risk of these countries. Gold is simpler as it’s role the way I see it is really to negate USD falls as opposed to buffer inflation risks.
2. vusd a well known index sitting on or near the efficient frontier is partly because of the USD natural buffer n a culture of stock buybacks.
3. If u have lots of other stocks such as Asian. U better sell some asian and buy some vusd. DONT try to time such as tech is expensive etc.
4. IDTL is very important as a bond buffer. It balances out the effect stocks crashes especially the big crashes of asian and Europe shares by cancelling out partly the FX lose of these countries.
5. MBH and A35 works too as a buffer but it’s duration is too short hence u need **** loads of it. So IDTL - u don’t really have a choice unless u get 20yr sg govt bond.
6. All these are short term defence should especially useful in a high cape environment.
7. I’m an advocate for all weather portfolios in a high cape environment. It’s been working fabulously for me.
8. anyone wishes to critique the above for a short investment period less than 3 years ?

Usd is really getting stopped out

 

[qazamy]

Recently read that DBS is opening up to provide scrip dividend to it's stockholders.

What's the procedure for folks that bought the STI ETF. The option to opt-in for scrip dividend will not be up to them?

Posted from PCWX using POCOPHONE F1

 

[limster]

Seriously guys. Its GST on your commission. Do you trade that big to be this concerned?

all those who obsess about such small charges are unlikely to be successful DIY investors.

in the end, you need to spend money to make money. no such thing as free lunch

 

[moolala]

Recently read that DBS is opening up to provide scrip dividend to it's stockholders.

What's the procedure for folks that bought the STI ETF. The option to opt-in for scrip dividend will not be up to them?

Posted from PCWX using POCOPHONE F1

why u want scrip dividend instead?

all those who obsess about such small charges are unlikely to be successful DIY investors.

in the end, you need to spend money to make money. no such thing as free lunch

u are right, not investors. Correct term would be traders

i dont even understand this GST charge, is it 7% of the stock u buy OR 7% of the commission charges

if commission is 0, then GST also 0?

 

[Tool18]

why u want scrip dividend instead?



u are right, not investors. Correct term would be traders

i dont even understand this GST charge, is it 7% of the stock u buy OR 7% of the commission charges

if commission is 0, then GST also 0?

7% on brokerage services rendered , commission , clearing etc whichever is locally incurred the brokerage have to pay to the government

 

[moolala]

7% on brokerage services rendered , commission , clearing etc whichever is locally incurred the brokerage have to pay to the government

hmm sounds like an additional few cents

if thats the case, then its not a big problem if use 0 commission like TD

 

[Wonderer haha]

I’m glad usd is dropping. Or else how r we gonna expect the s&p 500 to go further up given its high valuations n our iwda has **** loads of it.

1. If u have lots of vusd. U better have some gold or Asian or Europe stocks. But then with ex-vusd stocks, u r exposed both equity and FX risk of these countries. Gold is simpler as it’s role the way I see it is really to negate USD falls as opposed to buffer inflation risks.
2. vusd a well known index sitting on or near the efficient frontier is partly because of the USD natural buffer n a culture of stock buybacks.

Hi swan02, I have seen several posts of you mentioning VUSD instead of CSPX. Any reasons you prefer this than the CSPX? Purely asking your opinion, no right or wrong. Thanks !

 

[Kaypohji]

So u r an advocate for vusd? An advocate of a mixture of treasury bonds, vusd and Asia/Europe or even gold

Basically an all weather portfolio

I’m glad usd is dropping. Or else how r we gonna expect the s&p 500 to go further up given its high valuations n our iwda has **** loads of it.

That’s why we need gold to protect against this USD FX lose as we r peering in the eyes as a SGD investor.

the other option is to buy more asian and Chinese and Europe stocks or mix with gold.

but ultimately we also need to b wary when USD asserts it’s safe haven crown early yesterday. Gold was hit but not as bad as stocks. The best out of vusd, iwda and eimi was obviously vusd.

So I conclude for good diversification is

1. If u have lots of vusd. U better have some gold or Asian or Europe stocks. But then with ex-vusd stocks, u r exposed both equity and FX risk of these countries. Gold is simpler as it’s role the way I see it is really to negate USD falls as opposed to buffer inflation risks.
2. vusd a well known index sitting on or near the efficient frontier is partly because of the USD natural buffer n a culture of stock buybacks.
3. If u have lots of other stocks such as Asian. U better sell some asian and buy some vusd. DONT try to time such as tech is expensive etc.
4. IDTL is very important as a bond buffer. It balances out the effect stocks crashes especially the big crashes of asian and Europe shares by cancelling out partly the FX lose of these countries.
5. MBH and A35 works too as a buffer but it’s duration is too short hence u need **** loads of it. So IDTL - u don’t really have a choice unless u get 20yr sg govt bond.
6. All these are short term defence should especially useful in a high cape environment.
7. I’m an advocate for all weather portfolios in a high cape environment. It’s been working fabulously for me.
8. anyone wishes to critique the above for a short investment period less than 3 years ?

 

[swan02]

U startled me for a moment as I momentarily forgot why I chose Vusd since it’s been a while.

Frankly I think I didn’t want everything with ishares. but I don’t think that was the only reason.

Perhaps at that time I believed CSPX was less liquid to vusd but I had a peek at the spread and it was fine !

Their mgmt cost are also the same !.

Maybe I wanted distributing but that is not a convincing argument.

So ultimately among the choices, I think it is likely I believed cspx lacked liquidity and after 2 years likely have improved so much. I value liquidity a lot !

So there really isn’t any good reason left maybe except not wanting to put all eggs into the same basket which even that a reason is not convincing.

Hi swan02, I have seen several posts of you mentioning VUSD instead of CSPX. Any reasons you prefer this than the CSPX? Purely asking your opinion, no right or wrong. Thanks !

 

[swan02]

I’m an advocate of super diversification and yes all weather.

I’m an advocate because I need to find a balance tailored to my risk profile as my personality does not allow me to be tolerant of a higher equity allocation and not fidget with it to last the next 60 years !

for people like me, the all wealthier which only yourself can tailor it to your personality allows me to survive the short term 5 years while increasing your equity allocation for better overall returns. So I started with 25 percent equity all weather to now approx 40 percent Equity all weather aka golden butterfly and now stucked !

Cuz if I want even higher returns, I must sacrifice something.

However, for me to go from 25 to 40 percent was a VERY and difficult step and I can’t do so without gold and IDTL. In time I will reduce these both to buy more equity but it’s not now as I can’t take the fluctuations of daily 10k in a large portfolio. The all weather still beats having cash sitting on the sidelines dca forever.... an alternative I could have done was 40/60 iwda/MBH, but as I recall, their fluctuations are actually greater than golden butterfly when I tested it out. I used to own everything under the sun.

I also realised that the all weather like ray Dalio and permanent and golden butterfly are really tailored for S&P 500 equity ONLY. U yourself have to alter the ratio of gold and IDTL if u own Sg stocks or Asian or Europe.

for those who r thinking of an all weather, u cannot have this sort of portfolio if u r thinking of long term high returns as the greater amount of hedges aka bonds and gold will impede your performances. I myself hopefully will bring myself to the road of 100 percent equity one day by slowly disentail myself from gold and bonds. It’s like DCA but by being fully invested ASAP.

So u r an advocate for vusd? An advocate of a mixture of treasury bonds, vusd and Asia/Europe or even gold

Basically an all weather portfolio

 

[Kaypohji]

Interesting.

Actually I’ve seen some of ur posts and u seem very knowledge and ur perspective is different from the gurus over here.

It will be nice if u have ur own thread sharing ur own views on all weather portfolio for example. Holding gold, holding idtl etc instead of the usual a35 etc

Always good to have gurus on different strategies offering different perspectives since investment is not an one size fits all kind of thing

I’m an advocate of super diversification and yes all weather.

I’m an advocate because I need to find a balance tailored to my risk profile as my personality does not allow me to be tolerant of a higher equity allocation and not fidget with it to last the next 60 years !

for people like me, the all wealthier which only yourself can tailor it to your personality allows me to survive the short term 5 years while increasing your equity allocation for better overall returns. So I started with 25 percent equity all weather to now approx 40 percent Equity all weather aka golden butterfly and now stucked !

Cuz if I want even higher returns, I must sacrifice something.

However, for me to go from 25 to 40 percent was a VERY and difficult step and I can’t do so without gold and IDTL. In time I will reduce these both to buy more equity but it’s not now as I can’t take the fluctuations of daily 10k in a large portfolio. The all weather still beats having cash sitting on the sidelines dca forever.... an alternative I could have done was 40/60 iwda/MBH, but as I recall, their fluctuations are actually greater than golden butterfly when I tested it out. I used to own everything under the sun.

I also realised that the all weather like ray Dalio and permanent and golden butterfly are really tailored for S&P 500 equity ONLY. U yourself have to alter the ratio of gold and IDTL if u own Sg stocks or Asian or Europe.

 

[swan02]

I’m learning myself. And I need Shiny or BBC to critique.

Shiny has already brought his views about gold and I’m fully aware of its dangers. But I only see dangers in gold when it is not part of a portfolio and the most dangerous one is the rise of USD interest rates. Very unlikely the next 2 years but I’m watching. I can bail out of gold easily.

Yeh the day might come to have my thread but only if I’m fully convinced and have sufficient proof the all weather is really good referring to the ratios unique to a Singaporean investor .

The biggest proof is to double my money in 10 years for an ultra conservative investor such as myself in a high cape environment.

For now I’ll enjoy my retirement on this thread. I’ve learnt a lot from shiny and BBC.

But then I realise this is not my thread. I think I’ll stop talking all weather.

Interesting.

Actually I’ve seen some of ur posts and u seem very knowledge and ur perspective is different from the gurus over here.

It will be nice if u have ur own thread sharing ur own views on all weather portfolio for example. Holding gold, holding idtl etc instead of the usual a35 etc

Always good to have gurus on different strategies offering different perspectives since investment is not an one size fits all kind of thing

 

[zoneguard]

Always good to have gurus on different strategies offering different perspectives since investment is not an one size fits all kind of thing

If you are interested in alternative views (all weather), here's another portfolio:
https://medium.com/@valuestockgeek/the-weird-portfolio-99c0154d1c4a

The author did some backtesting and made some claims. You can have a read if you are interested.

Since 1975, this portfolio delivered real (after-inflation) results of 7.4%, while US stocks delivered 8.4%. This is astonishing because 40% of the portfolio is placed in defensive asset classes. It achieves these results with bond-like levels of a volatility, reduced drawdowns, and no lost decades. The worst year for the portfolio was a loss of 18%, compared to 37% for US stocks. Standard deviation for the portfolio was 11.5% vs. 16.6% for US stocks.

 

[Kaypohji]

Hey. Thanks ! Very similar to what swan02 is doing

Equity portion varies depending on ones view I guess.

I’m thinking holding usd treasuries bond has FX risk for us.. that’s why shiny things n bbcw advocate local a35 n mbh

If you are interested in alternative views (all weather), here's another portfolio:
https://medium.com/@valuestockgeek/the-weird-portfolio-99c0154d1c4a

The author did some backtesting and made some claims. You can have a read if you are interested.

 

[chrisloh65]

https://entrepreneurshandbook.co/i-sold-my-entire-investment-portfolio-one-hour-ago-f71a6ed534c7

"I Sold My Entire Investment Portfolio One Hour Ago
Here’s why and the hidden problems that affect you. Don’t underestimate the stress of a recession.
Tim Denning
Jul 29

One hour ago, I made the most difficult financial decision I’ve ever made.

It came after talking to my mentor. He said “record unemployment, an obviously inflated stock market, and a health crisis can’t be good for your portfolio. It either stays the same or flat. But really, more record highs? The chance of that is low.”

His logic is spot on. When there is too much risk in financial markets, one of the best things you can do is take profit and sit on the sidelines for a while. You may miss some of the discounts when stocks plummet, but at least you keep your sanity.

So I hit the sell button on everything. I’m out of the markets for the foreseeable future. This current environment reeks of 2008 and the tech bubble all over again. History is never the same but it sure as hell rhymes.

So I’m sitting in cash. I’ve made 30% off the portfolio recently, and it’s time to sit back and relax for a bit.
"

 

[Tool18]

hmm sounds like an additional few cents

if thats the case, then its not a big problem if use 0 commission like TD

Yes you are right . I believe for brokerage to trade into SGX for local residents , they need to have a legal entity local GST registered for companies revenue more than a million .

 

[swan02]

This is excellent !!
It basically verifies what I’ve alway observed the last two years even with Reits.

I was seeking a good way out of bubbles and looking into value and the small cap was spot on. Shockingly I didn’t look into this area when vanguard themselves allocate a small amt in their portfolio for aussies.

However I have a concern about inflation and rising interest rates. I dont think gold is reliable enough. Reits hopefully will back it up in inflation BUT In higher interest rates, I don’t think gold does well to protect falling values in long durations. BUT short term cash provides that glimmer of hope buffering falling bonds. I’m yet to find a good alternative.

But thanks for that very impressive site.

If you are interested in alternative views (all weather), here's another portfolio:
https://medium.com/@valuestockgeek/the-weird-portfolio-99c0154d1c4a

The author did some backtesting and made some claims. You can have a read if you are interested.

 

[swan02]

Assuming USD retains it’s safe haven. There is another potent benefit of IDTL other than its long duration buffer. It’s it’s USD buffer !

as the risk of equity overwhelms the portfolio. I don’t think any medium duration sg bonds can provide adequate tapering of standard deviation as we have a limit of 100% to asset allocate. However I realise u can overwhelm the portfolio with A35 (not with mbh) with leverage to achieve the same effect of long durations and not face FX risks.

Hey. Thanks ! Very similar to what swan02 is doing

Equity portion varies depending on ones view I guess.

I’m thinking holding usd treasuries bond has FX risk for us.. that’s why shiny things n bbcw advocate local a35 n mbh