Here's what I've gathered so far. Based on Vanguard articles mainly and observation via holding onto/testing out various portfolios.
Background=USA assets
The more non-USA assets you have, the less inflation hedge you need. So studies are done mainly in the perspective of USA domiciled. Hence the more SGD assets you hold, the less you need to worry of USA inflation.
1. >5 years of hedge- Just buy Equities
2. <5 years aka short term hedge then..
a. Cash (USD)/Treasury bills-highly correlated for expected inflation
b. Short term TIPS-highly correlated to UNexpected inflation but lags inflation beta due to its low volatility.
c. Commodities-highly correlated to unexpected inflation, has high inflation beta due to high volatility feature of its components.
So the above three are reliable hedges, and according to vanguard, 14%-30% commodities and up to 10% allocated to short term TIPs are warranted.
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1. Gold is an unreliable hedger. Treat it as a currency. In fact, some people hold a mixture of Gold, EUR, AUD, GPB, CHF, JPN etc to give them ample hit rate plus less holding cost due to less fees holding onto gold.
Use the above method (Gold, Foreign currencies of major countries) if you believe in the concept where the FX of the country will affect the performance of the public company thus inflation hence share price.
You can also use international shares (ex-USA) which shares similar features, with greater impact from emerging equities.
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If indeed that your investment horizon is long term i.e. 10 years or more.
I would rather be holding onto USD Cash/short term treasury, because you won't use the USD cash in short term inflation (unexpected). There won't be expected hyperinflation-its illogical.
Plus in an unexpected hyperinflation environment, ya bet, interest rates are gonna rise SOON. Hence USD rises, benefits the SGD investor, but equities may stagnate or dive. Bonds will dive.
also Cash USD also has a dual purpose in the perspective of an overseas investor heavily invested in USA (e.g. IWDA), by also acting as a reliable buffer in events of crisis. More reliable than say A35. So increase your allocation to risk assets should you include greater amounts of USD.
Hi ST, have you changed your opinion on gold? Is it a good investment to hedge against inflation, do you think the price of gold will keep going up?