Pasir Ris 8 unofficial "guide price"

[arctician]

I don't think Silversea is suffering from lease decay as much as the fact that FEO sold to the original buyers at inflated prices. FEO launched Silversea at about $2k psf circa 2010 when the surrounding FH developments were still selling at about $1.2k psf. If FEO had priced Silversea fairly, eg, around $1.2-1.4k psf, today's selling prices would reflect capital appreciation in line with the general property market. As it is, quite a number of the recent Silversea transactions were profitable. I was looking at Silversea quite closely when shopping recently, and my main concern was the upside in the next ten years, and the lease decay at around the 20th year mark. I honestly don't believe lease decay has come into the equation yet, and Silversea has been fairly well-maintained from what I observed recently.

fair point also, i also agree full effect of the lease decay has yet to set in, usually it will accelerate from 80th year mark onwards and old projects >20 years usually have stagnation in prices, FH or LH, so can buy for own stay but no for investment.

i always avoid projects thats trying to set benchmark prices in a district as they always underperform every single time after reaching a high on TOP..followed by decline for next 3-5 years. FEO launch floridian and Silversea around same time both ard $2k PSF, both declined after TOP, floridian FH have went back up to $2k psf but silver sea surprisingly is on downtrend to 1.6kpsf after 10+ years...somemore it has a premium sea view and Seaside residences in inferior location are selling at 2.2k psf now..so i cant think of any other reason except lease decay

Silver sea used to be my dream home too, good maintenance, nice glass facade, perfect sea view and i am Ok to pay $2k psf if price can hold..but i skipped this ever since they started the downtrend. other project like rivergate also 2k psf 5-10 years ago..now $2.6k psf already

 

[arctician]

Unfortunately, many good projects (as a product) often become bad due to overpricing.

If the spread between highest/lowest price vs average price within the project is large, the fortunes of its buyers may differ significantly.

precisely, thats why i dont give much weightage to # of profitable or unprofitable txn in a development, a good physical product may become bad just because of overpricing, but doesnt mean its going to be bad for next buyer if point of entry is good.

a good project "on paper" with 100% profitable transactions now may also become bad in future because current buyer took it off with a high premium and their pt of entry become v high

of course there are some exceptions, condos with loft and certain districts like D1 and D23 have large no of unprofitable txn, then in this case one need to investigate if its due to market timing, price point, or undesirable attributes

 

[1993newbie]

The longer this upward party keeps up, the better news and safe for our bros who bought in 1H2021 and before.

And huat to Tampines folks. They have a few pieces of land next to MRT…

Yup one plot opp Tampines triliant slated for hospital/medical….

 

[extraordinaryboynextdoor]

if silversea was launched at high, how come still have profitable transactions?

Two reasons I see (not the only reasons). First, ten years have passed, so with inflation and general property market rise, prices have finally risen slightly above what the buyers paid ten years ago, allowing some of them to exit with a profit. Second, not all units were bought equal - some buyers bought below $2k psf so they were able to exit profitably. And on a related note, not all units are built equal. I noticed that the higher floors in Silversea command a premium whereas the lower floors move much slower and often only at a loss.

 

[chopra]

Arti: simi is bw?

I agree w e bala curve. We will see more pronounce depre in time to come, both public n private. The market is still in a denial stage, if i may say.

 

[Passerboy]

Arti: simi is bw?

I agree w e bala curve. We will see more pronounce depre in time to come, both public n private. The market is still in a denial stage, if i may say.

BW is Beauty World.

 

[extraordinaryboynextdoor]

fair point also, i also agree full effect of the lease decay has yet to set in, usually it will accelerate from 80th year mark onwards and old projects >20 years usually have stagnation in prices, FH or LH, so can buy for own stay but no for investment.

i always avoid projects thats trying to set benchmark prices in a district as they always underperform every single time after reaching a high on TOP..followed by decline for next 3-5 years. FEO launch floridian and Silversea around same time both ard $2k PSF, both declined after TOP, floridian FH have went back up to $2k psf but silver sea surprisingly is on downtrend to 1.6kpsf after 10+ years...somemore it has a premium sea view and Seaside residences in inferior location are selling at 2.2k psf now..so i cant think of any other reason except lease decay

Silver sea used to be my dream home too, good maintenance, nice glass facade, perfect sea view and i am Ok to pay $2k psf if price can hold..but i skipped this ever since they started the downtrend. other project like rivergate also 2k psf 5-10 years ago..now $2.6k psf already

I feel that the differences between LH and FH are relative rather than inherent. As in, fundamentally, the market has no issues with LH per se; the problem arises when the LH property exists beside a FH one. So plenty of Singaporeans have no issues paying for LH properties in areas where they are the norm. These are the usual outlying areas such as Punggol, Tampines, etc, but can also include Redhill and Queenstown (GLS beside MRT stations).

Silversea’s LH is an issue because it’s in a district filled with FH properties, so I think the LH status discounts its prices more than it otherwise would have.

 

[arctician]

Arti: simi is bw?

I agree w e bala curve. We will see more pronounce depre in time to come, both public n private. The market is still in a denial stage, if i may say.

in public i will say yes, because govt have came out and announced only 4-5% of HDB will undergo SERS. For private LH i am less concerned because till date there is no LH that haslasted >40 years without going through enbloc, once there is increase in plot ratio or prices have declined with lease decay to stage where new vs old > 50% premium, developers will be keen to explore enbloc and top up lease..esp if GLS are gg to get more and more expensive, so pte LH owners at least have option to exit.

exceptions are LH projects sitting on FH land like reflections, or integrated developments with 99Y,these are harder to enbloc and i wont consider if aim is to go for wealth preservation

if i buy LH it has to cheaper by 20% vs FH in vicinity, and exit at 80y mark. if buy FH i have to ensure premium is <15% vs nearby LH. Historically data has also shown LH condo deliver higher rate of annual return vs FH due to the more affordable quantum

 

[chopra]

I feel that the differences between LH and FH are relative rather than inherent. As in, fundamentally, the market has no issues with LH per se; the problem arises when the LH property exists beside a FH one. So plenty of Singaporeans have no issues paying for LH properties in areas where they are the norm. These are the usual outlying areas such as Punggol, Tampines, etc, but can also include Redhill and Queenstown (GLS beside MRT stations).

Silversea’s LH is an issue because it’s in a district filled with FH properties, so I think the LH status discounts its prices more than it otherwise would have.

99yrs later, punggol tamp rhill n qtown etc will still b $0 if not enbloc

 

[extraordinaryboynextdoor]

99yrs later, punggol tamp rhill n qtown etc will still b $0 if not enbloc

I am not sure what is your point. I am not talking about the inherent value of the property after 99 years, but how the LH and FH statuses of a development affects its current market value. And my point is simply that the FH or LH statuses themselves are not as determinative of value as the manner in which their respective statuses interact with those of properties around them.

 

[arctician]

I feel that the differences between LH and FH are relative rather than inherent. As in, fundamentally, the market has no issues with LH per se; the problem arises when the LH property exists beside a FH one. So plenty of Singaporeans have no issues paying for LH properties in areas where they are the norm. These are the usual outlying areas such as Punggol, Tampines, etc, but can also include Redhill and Queenstown (GLS beside MRT stations).

Silversea’s LH is an issue because it’s in a district filled with FH properties, so I think the LH status discounts its prices more than it otherwise would have.

actually it may not be true, you see martin modern is nested in sea of FH condo, but surprisingly the FH projects in same area didnt move up much compared to MM which went up around 10-20% over last 3 years. Similar for river place a 99y LH that top in 1995, it has trended up over last 25 years to 1.5k+ psf now though its surrounded by all the newer FH

end of day silversea did underperform, for whatever reasons, good for us coz next time can get a retirement unit at 1.5k psf.

 

[chopra]

I am not sure what is your point. I am not talking about the inherent value of the property after 99 years, but how the LH and FH statuses of a development affects its current market value. And my point is simply that the FH or LH statuses themselves are not as determinative of value as the manner in which their respective statuses interact with those of properties around them.

Not much point given the short history of lh properties in spore. Let the market run for another 10 to 20yrs and see how lh fh will play out

 

[extraordinaryboynextdoor]

actually it may not be true, you see martin modern is nested in sea of FH condo, but surprisingly the FH projects in same area didnt move up much compared to MM which went up around 10-20% over last 3 years. Similar for river place a 99y LH that top in 1995, it has trended up over last 25 years to 1.5k+ psf now though its surrounded by all the newer FH

end of day silversea did underperform, for whatever reasons, good for us coz next time can get a retirement unit at 1.5k psf.

Interesting. Not so familiar with Roberson Quay area. I think my fate with Silversea has expired. I loved the sea view and was prepared to put up with the noise from ECP due to the good location (East Coast, amenities and proximity to town). Unfortunately, the unit we wanted was sold to another buyer first (even though we were willing to pay 10k more) and we were not able to find another unit with similar attributes within Silversea. We ended up buying elsewhere. When I retire, I would still want a sea view but would probably pick a LH property in Sentosa instead.

 

[oceanicmanta]

BW is Beauty World.

i thot Buangkok West

sorry, just trolling ...

 

[daheigou999]

Seems like Seaside Residences quantum merely closed up with Silversea (larger units with BW) One should consider both affordability and psf

Isn’t it fair to assume that there are buyers willing to sacrifice “distance from town” for a “newer product and lease”?

 

[arctician]

Interesting. Not so familiar with Roberson Quay area. I think my fate with Silversea has expired. I loved the sea view and was prepared to put up with the noise from ECP due to the good location (East Coast, amenities and proximity to town). Unfortunately, the unit we wanted was sold to another buyer first (even though we were willing to pay 10k more) and we were not able to find another unit with similar attributes within Silversea. We ended up buying elsewhere. When I retire, I would still want a sea view but would probably pick a LH property in Sentosa instead.

same here i have plans to move in 10-15 years to either silver sea or a LH in Sentosa for retirement, by then i think the lease decay would have caused the prices to depre till low 1k+ PSF

i thot Buangkok West

sorry, just trolling ...

dont like that, next time we gg be neighbours..not in same project but nearby

 

[scanner007]

same here i have plans to move in 10-15 years to either silver sea or a LH in Sentosa for retirement, by then i think the lease decay would have caused the prices to depre till low 1k+ PSF

dont like that, next time we gg be neighbours..not in same project but nearby

Think if it drop to 1k plus, it will be en blocked. The future of psf based on NPV will much higher.
1k plus to be en blocked could be dam cheap. I don't mind staying at such undervalued property too! LOL

 

[extraordinaryboynextdoor]

With asset inflation, I don't think we will see $1k psf for Silversea or Sentosa ever. I mean, never say never, but a Singapore in which the prices of Silversea or Sentosa units drop to $1k psf would be facing many other problems. But yeah, who knows - I mean, I would never have thought Pasir Ris would sell for $2k psf in the short run, but look where we are. It does make me feel better about my own property haha.

 

[daheigou999]

Think if it drop to 1k plus, it will be en blocked. The future of psf based on NPV will much higher.
1k plus to be en blocked could be dam cheap. I don't mind staying at such undervalued property too! LOL

While lease decay is a concern, it can be more than offset by economic growth

I have my doubts that these units will reach 1k psf

 

[daheigou999]

With asset inflation, I don't think we will see $1k psf for Silversea or Sentosa ever. I mean, never say never, but a Singapore in which the prices of Silversea or Sentosa units drop to $1k psf would be facing many other problems. But yeah, who knows - I mean, I would never have thought Pasir Ris would sell for $2k psf in the short run, but look where we are. It does make me feel better about my own property haha.

Exactly

See how the old leaseholds like International Plaza, River Place etc. continue to grow in tandem with economic growth (against lease decay)