STI ETF

d5dude

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I'm in no way saying be overweight STI .... but for now there is a strong case to be invested in SGD denominated assets especially with STI displaying relative strength over other indexes.

Not sure what you are trying to say here, but if you are like me, a vast proportion of your wealth should already be denominated in SGD, my primary residence + CPF + bond component of my portfolio are all denominated in SGD, there is no way to not be overweight SGD denominated assets unless I migrate to other countries.

No idea whats going to happen short term but long term I sure as heck wont want to further overweight SGD assets by investing in 3 local banks.

Btw I'm seeing a lot of short term trading on this thread, including yours. I've always thought that the whole point of passive index investing is to not time the market, these indices dun typically move much in a year, is there really a point in timing these 5-10% moves? Stocks on average (global average, not referring to STI specifically) grow earnings 8% a year, so the global average tends to double every 10 years, does a 5% move really make any difference?
 
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pmetpmet

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Not sure what you are trying to say here, but if you are like me, a vast proportion of your wealth should already be denominated in SGD, my primary residence + CPF + bond component of my portfolio are all denominated in SGD, there is no way to not be overweight SGD denominated assets unless I migrate to other countries.

No idea whats going to happen short term but long term I sure as heck wont want to further overweight SGD assets by investing in 3 local banks.

Btw I'm seeing a lot of short term trading on this thread, including yours. I've always thought that the whole point of passive index investing is to not time the market, these indices dun typically move much in a year, is there really a point in timing these 5-10% moves? Stocks on average (global average, not referring to STI specifically) grow earnings 8% a year, so the global average tends to double every 10 years, does a 5% move really make any difference?
Since you're residing in SG and all your expenditures are in SGD, it would make sense to stay overweight in SGD denominated assets. Global trends are super unpredictable due to currency and political risks so you can't really use that as a comparison to investing in local stocks (remember FED QE?) Local stocks on the other hand are excellent hedge against inflation so in the case of massive inflation or SGD devaluation, you will see local stocks rallying too. You have the safety of our local market and good dividend for a stable passive income, so why gamble for more? :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO:

Moreover, how the SGD will do over the next couple of decades or so doesn't really matter since you're living in SG and spending in SGD. But if you study the long-term trend against USD, it's clear as heck that it's been steadily appreciating. Think another debt ceiling is coming to bite the USD again with their massive 30T debt. On the contrary, it would be very different if most of your stocks are in USD. I'd imagine you will have many sleepless nights as you loose money on both fronts (FOREX & stock selloff)! :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO:

For the record, most of my overseas holdings are simply gambling fee and I don't do them long term. I only allocate 5% of my net-worth in US stocks :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO:

usd-sgd-historical-chart-chili.png
 
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d5dude

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Since you're residing in SG and all your expenditures are in SGD, it would make sense to stay overweight in SGD denominated assets. Global trends are super unpredictable due to currency and political risks so you can't really use that as a comparison to investing in local stocks (remember FED QE?) Local stocks on the other hand are excellent hedge against inflation so in the case of massive inflation or SGD devaluation, you will see local stocks rallying too. You have the safety of our local market and good dividend for a stable passive income, so why gamble for more? :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO:

I dun see how staying overweight in STI is going to help hedge against inflation, 3 banks make up 45% of the index, other than real estate (which I already own), nothing that I consume on a daily basis is on the index, but that shouldnt be surprising since Singapore imports nearly everything that we consume. Also I dun get why you think "unpredictable political and currency risks" dun apply to SG, no country is immune to these risks, this is what global diversification is for.

I've given many examples on why dividends are irrelevant in the grand scheme of things, they only form part of total return, only unsophisticated investors invest in stocks purely for dividends. Also I dun consider dividends from stocks "stable passive income" since they tend to be neither stable nor passive.


Moreover, how the SGD will do over the next couple of decades or so doesn't really matter since you're living in SG and spending in SGD. But if you study the long-term trend against USD, it's clear as heck that it's been steadily appreciating. Think another debt ceiling is coming to bite the USD again with their massive 30T debt. On the contrary, it would be very different if most of your stocks are in USD. I'd imagine you will have many sleepless nights as you loose money on both fronts (FOREX & stock selloff)! :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO:

For the record, most of my overseas holdings are simply gambling fee and I don't do them long term. I only allocate 5% of my net-worth in US stocks :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO:

usd-sgd-historical-chart-chili.png

I'm not betting on USD, my bet is on global equities, I own US, German, Japanese, Indian, Chinese, etc equities, these are businesses that generate and grow profits that accrue to me as a shareholder. You want to tell me its safer to park all my money in an index thats primarily made up of 3 banks in a tiny economy compared to being globally diversified? :rolleyes:

And I'm not holding US treasuries or USD so the debt ceiling or 30T debt has nothing to do with me. I would only be concerned with the debt on the balance sheets of the companies that I own.
 

weng0202

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I support your move. Even if my sell call timing is too early, the remaining possible upside (gains) for STI ETF (3.40 to 3.60) is only 7%.

Right now the market is expecting at least 4 rate hikes. US economy is already entering a recession an economic growth deceleration as stimulus is being ramped down gradually. Also, for the largest trading partner with US: if China stocks are decoupled from US, then it wouldn't have crashed today. There is no evidence of China stocks decoupling from US stocks yet (note: I said China stocks, not China economy). I see this as a clear sign that stocks of trading partners with US will be hit hard.

If the Fed actually carries out fewer rate hikes this year, the SG bank stocks will topple. 17th March 2022 is the date the Fed will start announcing 1st rate hike.

The soon to be announced Singapore Budget 2022 on the 18th Feb 3.30pm is quite predictable: more taxes and wealth extraction from society to repay the spent govt reserves. Nothing stimulating from the Govt, because Govt cannof afford it anymore.
I thought with rate rise, banks will chiong more and since STI is heavy on banks, it will also chiong because of the banks.
 

stanlawj

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I thought with rate rise, banks will chiong more and since STI is heavy on banks, it will also chiong because of the banks.
So if you know the banks will chiong when rates rise on 17 March 2022, when will you start queueing to buy the bank stocks? There are thousands of other people also eyeing the same bank stocks, including scalpers.
 

light84

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STI hit 3.46+ today and Fed haven’t even raise the rate.

What can I say? Every dog has its days
 

weng0202

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So if you know the banks will chiong when rates rise on 17 March 2022, when will you start queueing to buy the bank stocks? There are thousands of other people also eyeing the same bank stocks, including scalpers.
I have already bought it end of last year when the fed announced that they will be raising the rates this year. I predict STI should go back to 3600 this year.
 

limster

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I am holding STI ETF in SCB, CDP, and CPF. If it hits $3,60, I will sell my SCB and CDP holdings, and buy back when it drops to $3.40 using FSMOne. So I lower my average cost and also move to a better broker - because of FSMOne $8.80 flat fee.
 

pylpoh

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I am holding STI ETF in SCB, CDP, and CPF. If it hits $3,60, I will sell my SCB and CDP holdings, and buy back when it drops to $3.40 using FSMOne. So I lower my average cost and also move to a better broker - because of FSMOne $8.80 flat fee.
you may also consider dbs cashupfrotnt, abit more only at $10. but goes to your cdp.
 

hwckhs

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Does anyone know where I can find the historical composition of the STI?

Specifically, I am interested to check the list of the top 10 stocks and their weights, each year from 2000 to present. Interested to know how the STI evolved over the years.

Googled around but couldn't find anything.
 

stanlawj

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STI hit 3.46+ today and Fed haven’t even raise the rate.

What can I say? Every dog has its days
STI ETF opens big gap down (-1.9%) to 3.405 from 3.471 yesterday.
Another sell signal.
 
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stanlawj

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just sold all of my es3 a few minutes ago :p
ES3 back down to your selling price.

Watch the STI topping pattern over next few weeks... it is not straight down, can still rally to form double tops, or head and shoulders, providing 2nd chance to sell near peak if missed the 1st chance to sell near the peak.

Selling is an equally important skill as buying, it is the other 50% of effort to capture profit. I learnt this the very hard way.
 

stanlawj

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Not commenting on your sell call, but you are aware that ES3 just XD today, right?
I thought XD was next Monday, but just realised today. XD is common cause for gap downs. Also means the stock has no power, no reason to hold the stock anymore until the next catalyst for upside.
But I am not certain to be right.... discussing oppposing viewpoints here. Future is still unknown, I can still be wrong about the future upside. So each must critically think for themselves about why sell or not sell.
 
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light84

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STI ETF opens big gap down (-1.9%) to 3.405 from 3.471 yesterday.
Another sell signal.

Does not matter as my holding period is few years. I live with the fluctuations while receiving dividends.

I looking to sell this when the interest rate increase until something breaks
 
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