Tesla stock

edmwftw

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As expected, pre-split ended up worse.

https://www.investing.com/news/stoc...t-and-rbc-upgrade-to-outperform-432SI-2836377Tesla Stock Drops Despite Stock Split and RBC Upgrade to Outperform
Stock Markets 1 hour ago (Jun 13, 2022 07:20AM ET)

Tesla Stock Drops Despite Stock Split and RBC Upgrade to Outperform
© Reuters Tesla (TSLA) Stock Drops Despite Stock Split and RBC Upgrade to Outperform
By Senad Karaahmetovic

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares are down over 3% in pre-market Monday after red-hot May inflation data ignited another major selloff in tech shares.

Tesla stock price is also down despite the EV maker filing to split shares 3-for-1 late Friday. Moreover, the output at Tesla’s Shanghai factory is operating at 100% of capacity again according to Securities Times.
RBC Capital Markets analyst Joseph Spak upgraded Tesla stock to Outperform from Sector Perform. The upgrade move comes amid a “more favorable near-term set-up and belief that Tesla's focus on supply chain and vertical integration will be a mid-term competitive advantage.”

Spak is calling for 249,000 delivered electric vehicle (EV) units in Q2 while he sees margins surprising to the upside.

“1Q22 auto GM ex-credits was 30% and walking q/q lower volume, higher depreciation weigh, but pricing can offset. We forecast 2Q22 auto GM ex-credits at ~28.6%. Visible Alpha consensus 2Q22 auto gross margins ex-credits is 26.4%, but that is also built on that 279k unit forecast which is likely to come down. So we see the potential for low margin expectations and hence a margin beat. Looking ahead we are positive as well. For 3Q22, RBC is at 396k deliveries vs. consensus at 378k and we see 2H22 auto gross margins >30% as Shanghai gets back to pace, Berlin and Texas ramp and pricing gains continue,” Spak told clients in a note.
The analyst is even more bullish on Tesla stock in the mid-to-longer term given the EV company’s “increasingly favorable” industry positioning.

“TSLA has solid demand as evidenced by growing lead-times for their vehicles; pricing gains should continue. As EVs enter their 3rd phase in the mid-to-later part of the decade, we believe being able to deliver EVs will increasingly depend on supply chain. While TSLA is fairly secretive about the deals they have cut for supply of raw materials, we believe they have done more than other OEMs. TSLA's early focus on vertical integration (not just batteries/raw materials but also motors, semis, software) is likely to pay off especially as industry supply of critical materials may become an issue in 2027/28 and TSLA may be able to control more of their own destiny.

Indeed, it appears Elon’s Master Plan Part 3 is likely to focus on achieving very large scale to shift the transportation/energy infrastructure,” Spak added.

The fact that Tesla can build out and secure key materials puts the EV company in “a strong competitive advantage,” Spak concluded.

The price target on Tesla stock is now $1,100 per share, down from $1,175.

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edmwftw

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https://seekingalpha.com/article/4518154-tesla-tsla-split-is-different

Tesla: This Split Is Different​

Jun. 13, 2022 3:40 PM ETTesla, Inc. (TSLA)27 Comments6 Likes

Summary​

  • Company files for 3 for 1 stock split at the annual meeting.
  • Investors looking for a major rally may be disappointed.
  • This is a very different Tesla than we saw in 2020.
Electronic Car Maker Telsa Reports Quarterly Earnings

Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News

After the bell on Friday, electric vehicle maker Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) filed its preliminary proxy statement ahead of this year's annual meeting. As part of the filing, Tesla is looking to increase the number of authorized shares of common stock in an effort to execute a 3 for 1 stock split. With the stock having soared roughly two years ago around a previous stock split, investors may be hoping for large gains again. However, the situation is a lot different this time around.

Perhaps the most important item to look at here is market cap. When Tesla announced the 5 for 1 split back in August 2020, the closing market cap that day was about $256 billion. As of last Friday's close, the company was worth about $722 billion and that doesn't include the nearly 2% rally seen in the after-hours session. A market cap that's nearly three times what it was for the previous split obviously makes it harder for the stock to rally, because a given level of buying (say $1 billion) doesn't go as far this time around.

Also, the stock's float as a percentage of outstanding shares is about three percentage points higher this year than it was back in the summer of 2020. That means that there's a little more overall supply, and it's mostly due to Elon Musk's share sales from last year and earlier this year. Along the same lines, short interest in Tesla has dropped considerably over the last two years as seen in the chart below.

Short Interest
Tesla Short Interest (NASDAQ)

The number of shares short is down almost 54% since Tesla announced its stock split back in 2020. At the same time, the number of outstanding shares is up more than 105 million (on a split-adjusted basis), or 11.2%, while the float is up more than 15% since then. As a result, short interest as a percentage of the float has gone from more than 8% at the end of July 2020 to just 3.2% now. This significantly reduces the chances of a short squeeze happening. Back then, those betting against the stock might have been caught off guard a bit by the 2020 split, thus needing to cover which helped a little bit in the large rally.

Some investors may also be looking at the entire rally in 2020 and be attributing it to the split. As the chart below shows, Tesla shares did move nicely higher on the split news, but that wasn't the most important news item of the year. The major rally came later in 2020 after Tesla gained inclusion to the S&P 500 Index, which sparked a tremendous amount of buying. As it became more clear throughout the year that Tesla was about to meet the criteria to enter the index, part of the buying that occurred around the split may have been lumped in with S&P inclusion speculation. There is no major catalyst like that this time around.

2020 Performance
Tesla 2020 Chart (Yahoo! Finance)

Another major item to look at is where Tesla was as a company back then. The previous stock split was announced just a few weeks after management reported a 5% year over year revenue decline for its Q2 period. With the Fremont factory shut down for a good portion of the quarter and Shanghai in its early Model 3 ramp, Tesla's results were significantly pressured. While a new round of Covid shutdowns will hurt this year's Q2, I don't think even the most bearish person out there thinks we'll see anywhere close to a 5% year over year revenue decline. Back then, people were worried about businesses just surviving, and Tesla ended up raising $10 billion in capital later that year.

Another major reason this time is much different is in central bank and fiscal policy. Back in 2020, the Fed was expanding its balance sheet by trillions of dollars and governments were handing out stimulus checks to bolster economies. Today, central banks are now raising rates, like the Fed is expected to do again this week, with quantitative tightening about to start bringing the Fed's balance sheet down by hundreds of billions of dollars this year. Speculative stocks were skyrocketing back then, and you had firms like Ark Invest with massive inflows increasing their Tesla holdings by the day. Cathie Wood's firm has lost a significant amount of its net assets since then and its Tesla position has shrunk considerably as seen in the chart below partially due to redemptions but mostly because of allocation selling.

Tesla Holdings
Ark Invest Active ETF Tesla Holdings (Ark Invest)

The final item is one that could be a bit of a wildcard this time around. Elon Musk is trying to acquire Twitter (TWTR), although the pending deal is in question due to how many bots are actually on the social media site. Should Twitter's board try to force Elon to pay the agreed upon $54.20 price and some of Elon's backers drop out, he might need to sell millions more of his Tesla shares to finance the acquisition. This issue has provided a bit of an overhang on the EV maker in recent months, and we could be getting much closer to some real fireworks surrounding this major purchase as we get closer to the stock split.

Tesla is proposing an increase in its authorized share count, so the stock can undergo a 3 for 1 split, but this isn't the same situation as 2020. The EV maker has a much larger market cap this time around, combined with much lower short interest, and investors don't have the major S&P 500 inclusion catalyst to help out. The business is also in a much better place than the summer of 2020 when it was reporting revenue declines and in need of a capital infusion.

Finally, the overall market is in a completely different spot, going from a time of extremely easy money policy to one where the Fed is tightening things up quickly in an effort to combat high inflation. While Tesla shares might respond positively if a split does occur later this year, investors looking for significant returns again due to this singular catalyst will likely be disappointed.

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edmwftw

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https://www.thestreet.com/investing/cryptocurrency/teslas-bitcoin-bet-turns-into-a-nightmare

Tesla's Bitcoin Bet Turns into a Nightmare​

The electric vehicle manufacturer had invested $1.5 billion in Bitcoin in 2021.

The list of victims of the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency crash continues to grow every day. Tesla (TSLA) - Get Tesla Inc. Report, the manufacturer of electric vehicles is now part of it.

Elon Musk's company had invested $1.5 billion in Bitcoin on February 8, 2021. This investment lost a lot of value as cryptocurrency prices plummeted. Bitcoin has fallen and is currently trading at its lowest level since December 2020.

Bitcoin is at $22,499.99, compared to $69,044.77 reached last November. In eight months, Bitcoin has lost 67.5% of its value.

This fall caused important losses to Tesla.

The value of the 43,200 bitcoins that the group has on its balance sheet is now only $968.103 million, according to Bitcoin Treasuries. Tesla has already lost around $530 million. It would therefore make sense for the vehicle maker to announce a depreciation charge related to this digital asset at least when announcing its second-quarter results in July.

Tesla claimed that its investment in Bitcoin was aimed at diversifying its sources of liquidity and gaining flexibility.
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propertyinvestor40

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Thanks to inflation and war. We get to buy more at 600+. 50% discount from 1200. Those that miss the boat this is a great chance before the split 3:1
 

iceblendedchoc

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tesla raise prices for ev again and they have a close to perfect supply chain and also being bashed by the raw material increase.

I think the rest of the car manufacturers really have no chance and cars prices will go up again on the whole.
 
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