The bears den

[SBC]

US mkt is v toppish now.

 

[Shiny Things]

i think Trump is secretly a trader himself

You know he tried that for a few years back in the nineties? Trump would buy a stake in a company, start a rumour that he's going to make a takeover bid, then sell his stock into the pop. It worked four or five times before people realised that he never actually followed through on his takeover talk.

Not that I'm saying he's doing this again, but I would be entirely unsurprised if there's a few White House staffers who've suddenly gotten remarkably good at trading SPX or ED futures.

 

[revhappy]

On further thought, if Trump is planning to delay auto tarriffs by up to 6 months, it means he is girding for a long haul fight with China. China is by far his primary target and adversary

Huawei ban also coming out this week

Huawei ban is already here. I guess Trump afraid of simultaneous multiple threatre trade war, like the world wars. He doesn't have any allies this time.


It doesn't even take a genius now that we will have significant slowdown or a recession in the next 1 or 2 years, with the kind of chaos the supply chains are going to go through. It was a well oiled machine built over decades and Trump is ripping it apart in days.

Mind you the USMCA is not yet ratified by the Congress.

 

[tsipacse]

It looks like a 3-wave correction off 2800 lows in S&P500. So we may see another leg down today. What is everyone’s view here?

 

[NewInvestor]

It looks like a 3-wave correction off 2800 lows in S&P500. So we may see another leg down today. What is everyone’s view here?

The thread is called A Bears Den....so should be mostly bears here.

 

[MrHighlander]

Asia did not folllow US

Mostly all off (notable exception is China)

 

[churnmaster]

All it takes is just 1 tweet from Trump to reverse the market's losses. Looks like this would be a daily affair.. he probably has a series of tweets lined up whenever the Markets decline by 0.5%.

Keep it coming, Trump ..... we need some volatility here

 

[DukeCS33]

It looks like a 3-wave correction off 2800 lows in S&P500. So we may see another leg down today. What is everyone’s view here?

It is not that easy to break thru 2800... if anything, the price action is suggesting that the market wants to try to test and break above the topside.

For short term trading, do not anticipate breakup or breakdown. Let the breaks occur first then trade the reaction - this may be a safer approach. For med term trading, the backdrop tends to be more bearish from a macro perspective. Intervention from the Fed or White house can easily alter this.... but macro variables and funds flow suggest the probability of more downside than upside for now. As usual, this is a matter of perspective... and this being a bear den, I would still urge caution and not get carried away by one's inclination and seeking news with a confirmation bias.

 

[revhappy]

I am ok to lose money. Like i said before I got quite large mark-to-market losses in 2018 and it didn't bother me.

Every month I console myself by counting the dividends collected

I think you were very very Asia heavy going into 2018, which is why you had MTM loss. But that means you made super bumper profits in 2017, because I see 2017 Asia especially Hong Kong and China went up some 40-50%. So no sympathies for you

This is my company's pension fund. Look at the 2017 numbers for HK.

 

[coolhead]

A pity us futures are red in non-us trading hours. Guys, remember to put trading stops so that u will be protected by sudden swings in the stock market, just like yesterday. Am I glad I had that stop in.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[churnmaster]

Pardon my noobness but how does oil trade explain?

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

Bunker is the transportation fuel used by the Ships (cargo carriers). Major chunk of the goods exported from NEA (viz. China, Japan, Korea & Taiwan) for markets in S Asia, M East, Afr, Eur, LatAm & NorAm pass via Singapore (through Malacca Straits) sometimes offloading /onloading some cargoes for SE Asia markets at Singapore (transhipment). Similarly, cargoes moving to NEA from various parts of the world also pass through the same route in the opposite direction. Many of these ships do their refuelling (buy their bunkers) in Singapore and that's how Singapore is the World's biggest bunker market. Any slowdown in traffic flow results in lower bunker demand in Singapore and a very good indicator of global trade flow.

This data is published monthly in physical terms (Metric tonnes) and not value terms like many other data. I find this data highly reliable as it is published by Singapore's MPA.

 

[DukeCS33]

A pity us futures are red in non-us trading hours. Guys, remember to put trading stops so that u will be protected by sudden swings in the stock market, just like yesterday. Am I glad I had that stop in.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

On top of this, trade with the market. The Nasdaq turned positive ahead of the S&P and there was a good half hour or more before the S&P followed suit. So Nasdaq's price action was already a clue or precursor of what is to come. After Trump's tweet, market just reversed. I was watching CAT and GM for possible swing shorts but reversed bias and went long instead after it opened gapped down, form a double bottom and broke above... all that coinciding with Trump's noise.... That was a quick scalp but you get the idea.... never fall in love with a stock or be so inclined in one direction over the other. Anything is possible... the minute you throw away your system and get rid of confirmation bias, would be the time u may see your trading results improve. Just learn and master the basics and it is good enough.

 

[churnmaster]

Getting ready. I will probably start off by selling PUTs for the strike price I want to buy at. On the way up, the PUTs were very cheap, but of the way down, PUTs become expensive, so it would make sense to sell now, rather than when it was going up.

I think that's a better approach. Just make sure not to sell all the Puts on the same day at the same strike price. Sell at different strike prices on different days such that if all the puts get exercised, you get a much lower average acquisition (buy) price for the underlying.

 

[DukeCS33]

Bloomberg headlines: China Cuts U.S. Treasury Holdings to Lowest Level Since 2017

Prior, we had a rather disappointing auction in UST so everything kinda gel.

This Bloomberg reported that that happened in March which was way ahead of Trump's decision to increase tariffs... just shows that the Chinese were making preparations for a protracted trade war.... so despite all the soothing words from Mnuchin and Trump, I cannot help but think that it is not all that easy to hammer a trade deal. Of course, anything can happen but so far, there has not been anything concrete from both sides in terms of action that may change my line of thinking.

 

[churnmaster]

It is not that easy to break thru 2800... if anything, the price action is suggesting that the market wants to try to test and break above the topside.

For short term trading, do not anticipate breakup or breakdown. Let the breaks occur first then trade the reaction - this may be a safer approach. For med term trading, the backdrop tends to be more bearish from a macro perspective. Intervention from the Fed or White house can easily alter this.... but macro variables and funds flow suggest the probability of more downside than upside for now. As usual, this is a matter of perspective... and this being a bear den, I would still urge caution and not get carried away by one's inclination and seeking news with a confirmation bias.

Exactly ... I fully agree with you.

 

[revhappy]

My IB account is opened. That was quick. I wonder if I will get the 3 months waiver in min commission again.

 

[Trader11]

My IB account is opened. That was quick. I wonder if I will get the 3 months waiver in min commission again.

This time is real crash when Bear becomes bull

 

[revhappy]

KOSPI is the real dog in this downturn. Down 1.4%.

 

[DukeCS33]

For those who are interested in trading, I would share some of my intraday trading routine:
1. I scan the market for potential gappers - stocks that have released earnings, stocks getting upgrades or downgrades, or have news that may potentially move it and those that attract high premarket volume
2. I look for stocks that are at least $15 and has average volume of 1m per day. These are stocks that will attract institutional play and you always want to have momentum behind moves for intraday scalps
3. Decide a bias for the day... look at futures, potential economic release, premarket then trade my shortlist in the direction of both the index bias and specific direction that the stock may trade due to the news, earnings etc Always follow the direction of the main index... it typically leads the indiv stock that one trades by some 5 to 10 mins.
4. Sometimes, it gets tricky - gaps may fade or may runaway - and one may not be able to spot the retracement - that's where technicals come in.... I always trade only if there is a technical formation - be it trendline or horizontal support or resistance, looking for breaks or support or resistance to hold.

Once you are comfortable, this can be quite routine.... on a fast day, I can wrap up trading within the hour... on a slow day, it may take 3 hours. This is often harder than swing trade but it can be more fun and exciting (provided the market moves in your direction)

 

[DukeCS33]

Bears, do not get carried away:

Fed funds rate futures are fully pricing in a rate cut by the end of this year and more than a 50% chance of a move by September.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-fresh-tensions-with-china-idUSKCN1SM037?il=0