The bears den

[Trader11]

Taleb tweeted this:

INTERVIEW WITH ERIK SCHATZKER
1) Do not insult fallen entrepreneurs
2) Governement debt is worse than private debt because absence of skin in the game
3) The imperative of tail risk hedging
4) Make money at your job, not in the markets
https://t.co/DpU1NjhEp3

So we should avoid investing since confirm lose money?

 

[limster]

So we should avoid investing since confirm lose money?

I am ok to lose money. Like i said before I got quite large mark-to-market losses in 2018 and it didn't bother me.

Every month I console myself by counting the dividends collected

 

[theMKR]

I am ok to lose money. Like i said before I got quite large mark-to-market losses in 2018 and it didn't bother me.

Every month I console myself by counting the dividends collected

wah so shiok!!
how to earn dividend from very little money in trading?

 

[d9_lives]

I guess this is the place to rest, bear falling in. The trade war is not the only bearish factor. Declining birth rates in many developed countries will kill the bull. The biggest deflation wave is on its way!

****!! Run for the hills!!

 

[coolhead]

Futures are looking gloomy.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[DukeCS33]

Futures are looking gloomy.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

All you need nowadays is one tweet from Trump to send stocks either way.... but it only works the first time per topic... I see less impact if he continues to tweet that He would work out a deal with Xi come this G20 meeting.... The real buster I think would be if he starts to tweet about the Fed and jawbone the Fed to cut rates... Markets would not like this as that means the Fed would definitely not move.

 

[coolhead]

All you need nowadays is one tweet from Trump to send stocks either way.... but it only works the first time per topic... I see less impact if he continues to tweet that He would work out a deal with Xi come this G20 meeting.... The real buster I think would be if he starts to tweet about the Fed and jawbone the Fed to cut rates... Markets would not like this as that means the Fed would definitely not move.

Oh yeh that's true... This yellow broom should be investigated for possible insider trading.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[theMKR]

All you need nowadays is one tweet from Trump to send stocks either way.... but it only works the first time per topic... I see less impact if he continues to tweet that He would work out a deal with Xi come this G20 meeting.... The real buster I think would be if he starts to tweet about the Fed and jawbone the Fed to cut rates... Markets would not like this as that means the Fed would definitely not move.

Now that u mentioned it..... it all makes sense

 

[churnmaster]

That's what makes a market. Bull vs bear. The price decides the winner.

Yep, but not everyones in the game ... some are just cheering and getting excited outside the field.

 

[DukeCS33]

Yep, but not everyones in the game ... some are just cheering and getting excited outside the field.

Those who are just watching would not be in a position to impact prices. However, sometimes they may see it clearer than those in the game. No position means that they would not speak from position and subject to less confirmation bias that results from an emotional state.

 

[Trader11]

Taleb tweeted this:

INTERVIEW WITH ERIK SCHATZKER
1) Do not insult fallen entrepreneurs
2) Governement debt is worse than private debt because absence of skin in the game
3) The imperative of tail risk hedging
4) Make money at your job, not in the markets
https://t.co/DpU1NjhEp3

So we should avoid investing since confirm lose money?

Do you all agree with Taleb? Make money from your work. No need to invest at all

 

[revhappy]

Duke, good call on the markets! Today retail sales data will be released. It was for the period before the trade war escalation, so if it is positive, it should be disregarded. But if it is negative, it should tank markets.

 

[revhappy]

I have just put in a request to reopen my Interactive Brokers account.

 

[Trader11]

I have just put in a request to reopen my Interactive Brokers account.

Mike says when Bear starts buying, that is when the real action starts

 

[DukeCS33]

Duke, good call on the markets! Today retail sales data will be released. It was for the period before the trade war escalation, so if it is positive, it should be disregarded. But if it is negative, it should tank markets.

Not sure about the Market's reaction on retail sales data. A negative number may add on to the bearishness.. that I agree but a above expectations number may also see the market interpret it as resilience and seen as a chance that the economy may be impacted less by the trade war.

On the SP500, 2800 is the key support.... only a convincing break below this would see the downside open up. And until it gets broken, I would take quick profits off any shorts that I put on today.... maybe a tactic would be to take 3 quarters of position off and let the remaining ride if there is a chance of this break in the index happening.

 

[DukeCS33]

Mike says when Bear starts buying, that is when the real action starts

Hey bro, I think you may have been caught off guard - what if Rev opens the account to start shorting instead?

 

[churnmaster]

Those who are just watching would not be in a position to impact prices. However, sometimes they may see it clearer than those in the game. No position means that they would not speak from position and subject to less confirmation bias that results from an emotional state.

Well, sometimes no position is a result of very strong view and then looking for external confirmation (facts) to support that view. To make money as a successful investor or trader its important to be emotionally balanced and disciplined. At least partially book your profits and cut your losses regularly.

And anyways as retail investors / traders we don't impact prices. We just try to piggyback the market moving forces.

 

[DukeCS33]

Well, sometimes no position is a result of very strong view and then looking for external confirmation (facts) to support that view. To make money as a successful investor or trader its important to be emotionally balanced and disciplined. At least partially book your profits and cut your losses regularly.

And anyways as retail investors / traders we don't impact prices. We just try to piggyback the market moving forces.

I would second that! Never wrong to take partial profits. Tonight may provide an example... 2800 in the SP500 is a strong support and it is not so easy to break through.... anyone carried away by a bearish impulse may want to gun for a break and if it does not and U turn from there, his gains may evaporate and turn into a loss.

Collectively, retail traders can be a force... be it right or wrong so I would not discount it altogether... of course, I would prefer to follow the smart monies

 

[revhappy]

From the editor of China's global times:

In Chinese internet, many people describe the current China-US tussle as The Art of the Deal v.s. On Protracted War. The latter was written by Mao Zedong in 1938 during China’s anti-Japanese war. Protracted war is well known among Chinese as a strategy to exhaust opponent.

 

[revhappy]

‘Buy the Dip’ Alive and Well as BofA Sees Biggest Inflows in 2019

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...e-and-well-as-bofa-sees-biggest-inflows-in-19

Good luck to them!