The bears den

[NewInvestor]

I dont want to spoil the US stocks discussions thread with my bearish views. So I will create this thread, for posting any market views, which could be total rubbish, financial porn, zero hedge stuff.

Thank you for starting this thread. It is important for all of us to consider all views. It helps us to construct a well balanced portfolio for the long term. Please do not hesitate to share whatever views you have whether they are bullish or bearish. You have the right to do so and all of us should defend your right.

Please ignore the anti foreigner nonsense spouted by a person here. It is just an expression of his own insecurity.

 

[revhappy]

Thanks guys, I am not bothered about the anti foreigner comments by FCS, I know he will be banned so those comments don't affect me. The reason I started this thread is because too much bearish posts can irritate people, especially when markets are tanking and I follow a gang of people on twitter who are perma bears, so many of the posts sound like conspiracy theory, until they are not.

Best example, is the trade talks. Mainstream media kept saying that deal is going on well. But the bear gang always knew that it was a bluff. So some of my posts will make me sound like a perma bears or a crank and can anger the buy and hold crowd. The US stocks thread is mostly buy and hold crowd.

 

[churnmaster]

actually, i am thinking about that bull run for the longest time. which is why before i had a trading account i started a lot of threads asking how to make money if i think a stock is going down very slowly.....

The answer given is by sell puts options.

then i create an IBKR acct and play for fun. But i cant trade anything besides buying and sell stocks.

Either my deposit not enough or I setup the acct wrongly

i put in exactly 25k usd which is 34071sgd to avoid the day trading limit and cash out to buy pokemon cards when i can

Maybe its time to explore more on this....... (bearish bets)

If you are bearish .... either buy put options or sell call options

If you are bullish .... either buy call options or sell put options


For S&P 500, there are a variety of instruments like SPY ETF, CME E-mini S&P500, CBOE SPX. In terms of notional contract size, SPY ETF is the smallest while CBOE SPX is the largest (10x SPY)

I always prefer to sell out of money options (OTM) because the bid/offer spreads are narrower compared to at the money (ATM) and in the money (ITM) options and also always sell slightly longer expiration date. For eg. now sell for 20th Sept expiration. This way the lower premium earned on OTM options gets partly compensated by the higher premium (time value) due to longer time to expiry. This also provides time for your bearish view to play out during the choppy sideways (distribution) phase of the market. Once the trend reversal gets confirmed, then can actually go and short the underlying.

 

[revhappy]

Focus is now shifting towards EU auto tariffs.

 

[revhappy]

 

[spiritGate]

how do we make money in bear market?

Short lor.....

 

[revhappy]

Trump continues to threaten China.

 

[DukeCS33]

Trump continues to threaten China.

Trump does not understand China. The Chinese will never want to be seen bowing down to threats. This tweet is decidedly bearish for the Markets. Lining up my short targets for tonight. My only consideration about shorting too early is that the Index has a tendency to open gap down, then try to close the gap before resuming the downward path.

 

[revhappy]

Trump does not understand China. The Chinese will never want to be seen bowing down to threats. This tweet is decidedly bearish for the Markets. Lining up my short targets for tonight. My only consideration about shorting too early is that the Index has a tendency to open gap down, then try to close the gap before resuming the downward path.

Do you trade futures? I think the whole of last week, futures were down in Asia time and then made up their losses in US time.

 

[coolhead]

Do you trade futures? I think the whole of last week, futures were down in Asia time and then made up their losses in US time.

do you think it'll be different today??? down deep red then recover by eod..

 

[DukeCS33]

do you think it'll be different today??? down deep red then recover by eod..

In the near term, there is not going to be any u-turning due to both US and Chinese action of increasing tariffs. I do not see any details of the Chinese's retaliation yet - a heavy hand may damage stocks so badly that we may see a worse performance than what futures are indicating. Wait for the details.

 

[coolhead]

In the near term, there is not going to be any u-turning due to both US and Chinese action of increasing tariffs. I do not see any details of the Chinese's retaliation yet - a heavy hand may damage stocks so badly that we may see a worse performance than what futures are indicating. Wait for the details.

Xi's brother says yes sir!

https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/cnc/images/7/78/GenZH_Fai_Defeat.png/revision/latest?**=20120921135038

 

[peacefulday]

China start retaliate, US60b against US goods, 1st June.

In the near term, there is not going to be any u-turning due to both US and Chinese action of increasing tariffs. I do not see any details of the Chinese's retaliation yet - a heavy hand may damage stocks so badly that we may see a worse performance than what futures are indicating. Wait for the details.

 

[blue_denim24]

SP Futures down 1.92 percent

 

[revhappy]

do you think it'll be different today??? down deep red then recover by eod..

I am biased, so I am hoping it ends in deep red. I think the 1st day, when it closes in deep red, it will really scare off the longs and then you will the plunge like December.

 

[DukeCS33]

China start retaliate, US60b against US goods, 1st June.

That's peanuts compared to the US. The question is what %???

The Chinese has limited ammo as they import significantly less than the US and are mindful of the impact of raised tariffs on the consumer and the economy. Doubt they would detail any other actions but how they behave in terms of currency and UST purchases would be the key. They can punish the US by not buying any UST, negate the tariffs by devaluation - while playing with the currency may spook an outflow from their own citizens, China has effectively clamped down on such outflows over the last 5 years with various measures. In any case, all these would spooked the markets further.

 

[revhappy]

China is discussing the possibility of dumping US Treasuries: Global Times

 

[DukeCS33]

China is discussing the possibility of dumping US Treasuries: Global Times

hahaha.... typical playbook.

hmmm... all my short targets have now gapped lower into premarket....

 

[revhappy]

#CHINA WILL IMPOSE 5%-25% ADDITIONAL TARIFFS ON $60 BN WORTH OF #US GOODS FROM JUNE 1.
SOME 2493 GOODS WILL SEE TARIFFS RAISED TO 25%.

 

[DukeCS33]

#CHINA WILL IMPOSE 5%-25% ADDITIONAL TARIFFS ON $60 BN WORTH OF #US GOODS FROM JUNE 1.
SOME 2493 GOODS WILL SEE TARIFFS RAISED TO 25%.

This is trade war reboot. The key question is how much lower would the Dow close tonight. Going to be ugly. And we may then see some mayhem tomorrow with Asian markets reacting.

In a way, I now feel that my decision to go short term / intraday has been vindicated. I am escaping this sell off since I close positions every night with my last short term swing long in MKC closed out 2 weeks back.