The bears den

[DukeCS33]

Let's see whether the interest rate play will happen again

It may not work if the market has discounted this move and depending on the market conditions and positioning, a Fed cut may do more damage instead - if the fed is perceived to be behind the curve and not doing enough, a cut which result from a u turn in narrative may well spook the market and cause a sell off.... so its not a clear cut case of a cut inducing a market rally.

 

[revhappy]

Trump is again manipulating the markets. If bulls fall for this, they are suckers.

 

[focus1974]

Focus1974, are you glad that you have reduced your long position and taken some profits off the table? Money in hand is always worth 2 in the bush.

Nope. I only took off positions that are not performing.

Those with deep profits and secular trends, I am holding.

No $1mil No Count!

 

[power789]

Keep breaking new low...siao liao, iwda snp sti....

Banks also down down down

 

[SpinFire]

It may not work if the market has discounted this move and depending on the market conditions and positioning, a Fed cut may do more damage instead - if the fed is perceived to be behind the curve and not doing enough, a cut which result from a u turn in narrative may well spook the market and cause a sell off.... so its not a clear cut case of a cut inducing a market rally.

The SG REITs may have priced in a rate cut as they have rallied quite substantially since the start of the year

 

[revhappy]

Trump has again managed to bluff the markets. US futures up 0.5% and China indices are turning positive.

I guess, Trump will now continue pumping up the markets until next 1 month and the dumb bulls will continue buying.

 

[theMKR]

Last night was a relatively easy short. When one trades intraday, the worry is if the main indices may turn direction and influence your stock pick along. Remember 70% of stocks tend to follow the direction of the main index. So on the first day of a full blown trade war, it is an easier call to view things as bearish and therefore, sell the rally or sell the breakdown of any consolidation. Once you have conviction on a directional view, it becomes relatively easy to trade along that view.

Tonight may be more tricky... bargain hunters and investors would shift through the damage done overnight and may well hunt for stocks that have less or no exposure to this Sino - US escalation. Overall, the mood is bearish and I am thinking that the broader market may either take a breather or continue with a smaller scale sell off. I would still think the odds is slightly tilted towards a continuation of the sell off. Unlike last night, I would be more discerning on my stock selection.

On a longer timeframe, I am readying to start swing shorts with longer holding periods. The market would still take cues from headline news... the media would continue with its bearish narrative. This is extremely risky and subject to wide gyrations but I think the risk reward is now tilted towards this tactic.

I was trying to formulate a view around Fed action. While the Fed has maintained that they are neutral at this stage, I cannot help but feel that the longer this trade war drags, the more their hand would be forced to cut. It would be sometime before they do so and the market would continue to price this in while the Fed may drag their feet as they probably needs to see more data.... by which time, they may well be behind the curve and damage may have been done already. On this front, I see SGD rates following due to the way our monetary policy is engineered. I see this sell off as an opportune time to top up my SG Reits holdings - the bearish sentiment may drag most stocks down and a declining rates environment benefiting the Reits and bond (investment grade only) space... provided we do not see a recession.

Focus1974, are you glad that you have reduced your long position and taken some profits off the table? Money in hand is always worth 2 in the bush.

not too easy for me, i actually loss money mid way after the bargain hunters come in push up the stocks.

but overall managed to exit all my previous dumb picks like tsla and shop.

some how stmp went up and i lost money.

 

[revhappy]

not too easy for me, i actually loss money mid way after the bargain hunters come in push up the stocks.

but overall managed to exit all my previous dumb picks like tsla and shop.

some how stmp went up and i lost money.

You should have shorted AAPL. In trade war with China it is hardware companies that get impacted. Apple has upcoming streaming service but hardware is still major part of its revenue.

 

[DukeCS33]

Trump has again managed to bluff the markets. US futures up 0.5% and China indices are turning positive.

I guess, Trump will now continue pumping up the markets until next 1 month and the dumb bulls will continue buying.

If the bulls buy and the market ends up higher, then the buyers are not dumb. Trump talking up the market is a valid reason to buy and profit from it. And you can be sure that trump will try to talk the markets higher.
In any case, it may still be too early... Maybe market may correct a bit higher from the heavy selling last night...

 

[theMKR]

You should have shorted AAPL. In trade war with China it is hardware companies that get impacted. Apple has upcoming streaming service but hardware is still major part of its revenue.

the thing about shorts is that 90% of the fall are at the pre-market. So unless i know pre-hand and short the day before its difficult.

but i did made some money off AAPL, just enuff to buy a few pokemon cards thou.

I lost a bit at TSLA (i click wrongly ) and SHOP which i shorted it since 217

 

[hachi]

i hope this time is real.....

for those sitting on the sidelines, it has been a long wait. 10 yrs of bull.

Bear finally out of hibernation? There are tons of people lurking in the FD thread ready for the day...

 

[coolhead]

Looks like bull win today.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[coolhead]

Serious question, is it ok to hang on to gold mining stocks during market downturn?

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[churnmaster]

If the bulls buy and the market ends up higher, then the buyers are not dumb. Trump talking up the market is a valid reason to buy and profit from it. And you can be sure that trump will try to talk the markets higher.
In any case, it may still be too early... Maybe market may correct a bit higher from the heavy selling last night...

DukeCS33 ....Do you think the peak for this market is already in place based on your technical analysis? The market has stalled 3 times at around 2900 level now.

 

[helloamberchan]

will the China deal backlash?

 

[churnmaster]

Serious question, is it ok to hang on to gold mining stocks during market downturn?

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

Many of these stocks have a strong correlation to their underlying (gold). If gold starts to rally they will also rally, and most times they lead the underlying. Gold saw a pop over last 2 days and currently around US$1300/oz. It has a strong resistance around US$1370/oz which it has attempted to break couple of time but failed. If it breaks this level, then there may be a bigger rally in the underlying and also these stocks.

I would typically look at the charts of these stocks and the underlying and accordingly decide to liquidate at different levels. Gold peaked at US$ 1920/oz, so we are still around 50% away from the peak with resistances at different levels. I would sell the stocks around these levels in 4 trances - 10%, 20%, 30% and final 40% of holdings.

 

[DukeCS33]

DukeCS33 ....Do you think the peak for this market is already in place based on your technical analysis? The market has stalled 3 times at around 2900 level now.

To be honest, I do not look at that long term technical analysis. The way I use technical analysis to trade is to look at the behaviour when it comes to a resistance and decide if it may hold or break. Take the most recent test - a break above the resistance should see a pick up in volume for a chance that this may happen. So my inclination was to sell as it approach this resistance as I see that the volume is waning... (actually I did not sell the resistance but I switch to intraday trading and squared off my swing positions)… generally, if a resistance were to break, there should be volume accompanying that thrust momentum. If there were volume backing it, I may still take profit first and then buy the break later if it occurs.
For now, the resistance has been tested 3 times prior and would make for a strong resistance. Except for last night, where we see a solid sell off with little evidence of bargain hunting, I suspect that the bargain hunters who tried to pick bottoms from 6th to 10th May may be caught. And once you have trapped buyers, the Resistance would be stronger. That said, I am looking for the downside to continue...(subject to headline news and comments trying to jawbone the markets higher) remember I was warning that the support could give way easily? We may see the same as that is a characteristic of a bear market.... people hit panic button and sell while potential buyers sit it out.
Based on some of the technical variables I monitor, selling volume has been very strong and marks a bearish change of behaviour.... there will be bargain hunters and technically driven rebound - I would be watching these rebounds and when they are weak, I would still short. Market may attempt to close the gap from last night before deciding if it wants to continue moving down thereafter... so from here, it would not be like last night where shorting was relatively easier.
Sorry I do not really do long term charting. My long term picks are based on fundamentals and short term technicals to pick an entry - hope the above helps.

 

[theMKR]

i got a strong urge to go short BA & XLNX today.

but i scared now is already at the bottom

 

[churnmaster]

The SG REITs may have priced in a rate cut as they have rallied quite substantially since the start of the year

Yes, I also think so. I recently came across people who never talk about stocks, suddenly talking about the S REITS now. Add to that, also saw an ad on Youtube by a property expert talking about S REITS. These things just make me bit cautious.

 

[DukeCS33]

Yes, I also think so. I recently came across people who never talk about stocks, suddenly talking about the S REITS now. Add to that, also saw an ad on Youtube by a property expert talking about S REITS. These things just make me bit cautious.

SG reits appreciated along with the rest of the stock market. The SG market was perceived to be relatively undervalued compared to other markets at the start of this year and hence there was a general lift off 3k level. That was not about rates cut getting discounted persay as this started only after the trade tariffs were increased and market was thinking that the Fed may be forced to cut. It is still early days.

I see SG stocks and reits falling from here if the US markets continue to tank on the back of the trade war. After this round of recaliberation, I would see Reits supported only if the Fed starts to cut. So my timeframe is really very much later... but its time to do some homework and identify the right candidates.