The bears den
- Thread starter revhappy
- Start date
Trump admin is in a really hurry to bind China. They think max pressure will compel China.
It is a tech war on top of a trade war.
churnmaster
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I hope it comes true .... for now both short call and long put positions in the money
revhappy
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I hope it comes true .... for now both short call and long put positions in the money
Even after this fall, S&P500 is up 13% this year on fake trade deal pump up. Much of the upmove has to unwind. Not only is there no trade deal, the trade war has worsened.
theMKR
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Understand the logic behind bo?
I guarantee, no ones!
Why? Because, SSI Warriors 1000% isn't trained in Wall Streets.
Slide above created by FCS, for FCS Clients in HK.
i dun understand, but i reported. why dun u post something properly?
theMKR
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i hope this time is real.....
for those sitting on the sidelines, it has been a long wait. 10 yrs of bull.
waiting for what?
Waiting to buy at cheap price
theMKR
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Last night was a relatively easy short. When one trades intraday, the worry is if the main indices may turn direction and influence your stock pick along. Remember 70% of stocks tend to follow the direction of the main index. So on the first day of a full blown trade war, it is an easier call to view things as bearish and therefore, sell the rally or sell the breakdown of any consolidation. Once you have conviction on a directional view, it becomes relatively easy to trade along that view.
Tonight may be more tricky... bargain hunters and investors would shift through the damage done overnight and may well hunt for stocks that have less or no exposure to this Sino - US escalation. Overall, the mood is bearish and I am thinking that the broader market may either take a breather or continue with a smaller scale sell off. I would still think the odds is slightly tilted towards a continuation of the sell off. Unlike last night, I would be more discerning on my stock selection.
On a longer timeframe, I am readying to start swing shorts with longer holding periods. The market would still take cues from headline news... the media would continue with its bearish narrative. This is extremely risky and subject to wide gyrations but I think the risk reward is now tilted towards this tactic.
I was trying to formulate a view around Fed action. While the Fed has maintained that they are neutral at this stage, I cannot help but feel that the longer this trade war drags, the more their hand would be forced to cut. It would be sometime before they do so and the market would continue to price this in while the Fed may drag their feet as they probably needs to see more data.... by which time, they may well be behind the curve and damage may have been done already. On this front, I see SGD rates following due to the way our monetary policy is engineered. I see this sell off as an opportune time to top up my SG Reits holdings - the bearish sentiment may drag most stocks down and a declining rates environment benefiting the Reits and bond (investment grade only) space... provided we do not see a recession.
Focus1974, are you glad that you have reduced your long position and taken some profits off the table? Money in hand is always worth 2 in the bush.
Tonight may be more tricky... bargain hunters and investors would shift through the damage done overnight and may well hunt for stocks that have less or no exposure to this Sino - US escalation. Overall, the mood is bearish and I am thinking that the broader market may either take a breather or continue with a smaller scale sell off. I would still think the odds is slightly tilted towards a continuation of the sell off. Unlike last night, I would be more discerning on my stock selection.
On a longer timeframe, I am readying to start swing shorts with longer holding periods. The market would still take cues from headline news... the media would continue with its bearish narrative. This is extremely risky and subject to wide gyrations but I think the risk reward is now tilted towards this tactic.
I was trying to formulate a view around Fed action. While the Fed has maintained that they are neutral at this stage, I cannot help but feel that the longer this trade war drags, the more their hand would be forced to cut. It would be sometime before they do so and the market would continue to price this in while the Fed may drag their feet as they probably needs to see more data.... by which time, they may well be behind the curve and damage may have been done already. On this front, I see SGD rates following due to the way our monetary policy is engineered. I see this sell off as an opportune time to top up my SG Reits holdings - the bearish sentiment may drag most stocks down and a declining rates environment benefiting the Reits and bond (investment grade only) space... provided we do not see a recession.
Focus1974, are you glad that you have reduced your long position and taken some profits off the table? Money in hand is always worth 2 in the bush.
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