The bears den

[DukeCS33]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-xi-warns-during-trade-war-idUSKCN1SS13H?il=0

This is going to be a protracted war. Market is just too complacent about the risks.

 

[revhappy]

I think as a result of the trade war, Singapore's import prices are going to fall significantly causing lower inflation and MAS will have loosen policy. So very high chances of SGD falling.

 

[Mecisteus]

I mentioned this before. China must succumb if they want HW to survive.

Stop stealing IP.

More and more companies are cutting ties with HW.

Kirin chips?

Arm said to have suspended business with Huawei in what would be a crushing blow
https://www.androidauthority.com/ar...56KwpQY6jFOYphQp42SaiW39ro-xQ-aNjr_DK7eeTS7os

 

[limster]

I think as a result of the trade war, Singapore's import prices are going to fall significantly causing lower inflation and MAS will have loosen policy. So very high chances of SGD falling.

thats why i'm diversifying with USD bond ETFs and USD FD! Maybe I'll use the FSM free trade promotion to buy that USD Bond ETF since equity ETF haven't reached my target price...

 

[DukeCS33]

I think as a result of the trade war, Singapore's import prices are going to fall significantly causing lower inflation and MAS will have loosen policy. So very high chances of SGD falling.

This does not sound quite right. Recall the oil shock we had when oil plunged from UDS100 to USD 50 a barrel? Global banks around the world cut interest rates... the MAS did a rare inter meeting easing of policy as well. So a tariff war has the effect of increasing prices for countries directly involved. Other countries buying goods from countries engaged in tariff wars inadvertently get subject to higher prices (and this is very likely considering the disruption to supply chain in the immediate aftermath) So in all likelihood, the MAS is likely to tighten monetary policy or make the SGD stronger so that we counter imported inflation. Of course if there is a economic slowdown, then things get more complicated down the road.... so sorry, the SGD should not be falling but should be rising to combat imported inflation.

 

[coolhead]

Anyone notices a trend? Us index is red one day and green another day. I'm trading to this anomaly

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[theMKR]

Shorting everythung nowww

 

[churnmaster]

I came across this only today and its too late to chase this trade... but I thought it may be an interesting demonstration of VSA analysis for this stock : CTSH

You need to refer to your Chart with candle and volume shown. I have provided my interpretation of VSA analysis based on the candles on each date:

3 May: Ultra high volume sell off aka selling climax. The close off its low and high volume suggests hidden buying in the background. To most, they may just look at it as a bearish candle

6 May : Sign of buying but we know that there is still supply in the background especially right after a sell off

7 May : Prices marked down and there was a slight increased in volume (potential sign of supply still there in the background)

8 May to 10 May : buyers are battling out and absorbing supply -interesting change with buyers showing up now and trying to push prices higher without succeeding for 3 days

13 May : A last shakeout of weak hands as stops placed by weak buyers below recent lows get taken out

14 May : lower volume bullish bar suggest that supply may have been spent.

15 May onwards: Market just took off as Buyers dominated the sellers. The above average volume and white candles just show that demand is there. Notice the overlap where open was lower than the prior close - in a way its just trying to ascertain if there may be fresh supply coming in. Also recall that the S&P sold off between 16 to 20 May so it makes the climb up even more spectacular.

Potential long entry point may be considered after shakeout bar on 14 or 15 May. If I traded this, I would be watchful for any reversal - A stock that has declined so much on heavy supply would have overhang of sellers on top... so need to maintain discipline to take profits and not think that the stock will fly forever.

To the uninitiated, my explanation may not make sense to you but these are techniques that I have been applying to my trading. All my countertrend trades where I pick bottoms were analysed via VSA and so far I have hit a 80% win rate on a risk reward ratio of 1:2

If you would like to learn more about VSA, please google and read up on Wcykoff and Tom Williams work.

Excellent!

 

[revhappy]

Munchkin has been unleashed to prevent a market fall today.

U.S. TREASURY'S MNUCHIN SAYS LIKELY WILL NOT MOVE FORWARD WITH PROPOSED TARIFF INCREASES FOR 30-40 DAYS

 

[churnmaster]

I think as a result of the trade war, Singapore's import prices are going to fall significantly causing lower inflation and MAS will have loosen policy. So very high chances of SGD falling.

In the near term SGD may fall against the USD and JPY (as both seen as safe havens). Longer term SGD is seen appreciating esp against the USD. The forward curve tells you the same. Again, SGD falling against other currencies unlikely.

Singapore is a small country without any natural resources and has to import virtually everything. If SGD continues to fall it will make imports expensive for the locals, which is not desirable. Add to that, when it comes to its exports Singapore doesn't compete based on cost but on quality. Hence a drop in SGD doesn't make it more competitive especially in a trade war environment. Lastly, despite being import dependent, Singapore has a current account surplus because it has been able to attract investments with its prudent policies. Now, globally flow begets flow, in other words inflows result in current account surplus and attracts more inflows, supporting / strengthening the currency. The opposite (i.e. outflows) is also true and I don't think Singapore policy makers will ever tweak their policies to do that.

 

[DukeCS33]

Munchkin has been unleashed to prevent a market fall today.

U.S. TREASURY'S MNUCHIN SAYS LIKELY WILL NOT MOVE FORWARD WITH PROPOSED TARIFF INCREASES FOR 30-40 DAYS

Trump and Xi to meet towards end of June.

Market is now hoping for FOMC to indicate signs of cutting rates...

 

[revhappy]

In the near term SGD may fall against the USD and JPY (as both seen as safe havens). Longer term SGD is seen appreciating esp against the USD. The forward curve tells you the same. Again, SGD falling against other currencies unlikely.

Singapore is a small country without any natural resources and has to import virtually everything. If SGD continues to fall it will make imports expensive for the locals, which is not desirable. Add to that, when it comes to its exports Singapore doesn't compete based on cost but on quality. Hence a drop in SGD doesn't make it more competitive especially in a trade war environment. Lastly, despite being import dependent, Singapore has a current account surplus because it has been able to attract investments with its prudent policies. Now, globally flow begets flow, in other words inflows result in current account surplus and attracts more inflows, supporting / strengthening the currency. The opposite (i.e. outflows) is also true and I don't think Singapore policy makers will ever tweak their policies to do that.

Yeah, I trust MAS to manage the monetary policy well, hence I have significant exposure to SGD.

 

[coolhead]

Looks like no expected rate cuts in foreseeable future unless some drastic economic changes occur... Prime focus seem to be on inflation rate though. I do not have sufficient data to justify but if the tariff on china goods affect the core necessities such as clothes, then it may well cause inflation to go up just very slightly

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[coolhead]

Anyone feels that all it takes is for inflation to hit 2% before fed initiate another hike?

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[revhappy]

Bloodbath in Asia today.

 

[theMKR]

wtf sia, my amd lost money

time to exercise my 197.5 and 195 option put on TSLA, or let ibkr automatic exercise on friday?
Do i need to buy TSLA 1st before i exercise, so instantly can convert the shares into $$ ??

but i am already holding quite a big position in TSLA short.....

 

[theMKR]

April - 23 May 2019 FCS Professional-Global Stocks Transaction Records:
I having "22" Pages worth of all transactions trades within "Less Than Two Years"!

Spoiler

Unveiling my latest April 2019 Trading-Track Record:

Since the humble beginning, when FCS started Full-Time Pro Trading Journey in July 2017!

Spoiler

eh, i think i just short tsla nia win u liao.....

but its not interesting, i posted this before when ppl doubt that i paid "high comms" to ibkr
but heres mine without photoshop

Spoiler

 

[DukeCS33]

[/SPOILER]

eh, i think i just short tsla nia win u liao.....

but its not interesting, i posted this before when ppl doubt that i paid "high comms" to ibkr
but heres mine without photoshop

Spoiler

theMKR is truly the master scalper. That's worth a lot of pokemon cards!

 

[coolhead]

[/SPOILER]

eh, i think i just short tsla nia win u liao.....

but its not interesting, i posted this before when ppl doubt that i paid "high comms" to ibkr
but heres mine without photoshop

Spoiler

Say no to drugs.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[revhappy]

Today is India elections results. Indian markets hit all time high and rupee is super strong. Modi is winning.