The bears den

[DukeCS33]

Looks like comments from the Chinese suggest that they are digging in for the long haul and Trump may not get that quick resolution that he desires. The Chinese may outlast him and there is a real chance that trump fails to secure reelection on the back of the trade issue. Then again this may well be turned around into one where Trump champions US technology. But either way, the chance of this getting resolved before increased tariffs hit gets dimmer.

 

[Trader11]

Looks like comments from the Chinese suggest that they are digging in for the long haul and Trump may not get that quick resolution that he desires. The Chinese may outlast him and there is a real chance that trump fails to secure reelection on the back of the trade issue. Then again this may well be turned around into one where Trump champions US technology. But either way, the chance of this getting resolved before increased tariffs hit gets dimmer.

Xi Jinping will be last longer than Trump. When US gets into recession soon, Trump will be blamed. Voters will start turning on him. That is why Trump is more desperate for the deal than China.

So far Trump talks alot more tha China. This shows he is more desperate liao

 

[Mecisteus]

Xi Jinping will be last longer than Trump. When US gets into recession soon, Trump will be blamed. Voters will start turning on him. That is why Trump is more desperate for the deal than China.

So far Trump talks alot more tha China. This shows he is more desperate liao

You must be too naive.

If the demand for China's exports fall, their economic growth will suffer the most.

The impact due to the trade war will pan out negatively to China in the longer term.

 

[theMKR]

ok i humji, i exercise option liao 195.7

1 more option to go

 

[revhappy]

Monday is a US holiday. Long weekend.

 

[DukeCS33]

Looks like market is attempting to close the gap up.

 

[revhappy]

You must be too naive.

If the demand for China's exports fall, their economic growth will suffer the most.

The impact due to the trade war will pan out negatively to China in the longer term.

Nationalism usually trumps economics. China will evoke nationalist sentiments and people will rally behind their leader and accept the short term pain. Look at Russia as an example.

In any case even China knows that their export model cannot last forever and they were making the adjustment to internal consumption. This will only hasten that adjustment. It will be a short term pain for China but they can withstand it much better than US.

The average American cannot even fund a $400 emergency. It is Trump who will capitulate first.

 

[endlssorrow]

This week really shows if you are real greedy when everyone is fear!!

 

[Mecisteus]

Nationalism usually trumps economics. China will evoke nationalist sentiments and people will rally behind their leader and accept the short term pain. Look at Russia as an example.

You want to follow Russia? haha good luck then.

https://www.businessinsider.sg/russia-economy-facts-2019-4/?r=US&IR=T


Russia loses 700 people every day

Russia’s economic output plummeted 45% in the decade after the Soviet Union broke up.

More than 13% of Russians live in poverty

Russia’s currency, the ruble, has dropped in value by 50% this decade

The average monthly wage in Russia is $670

 

[coolhead]

started the short early...

 

[DukeCS33]

started the short early...

Becareful. I do not trust this market and think that the algos are just taking over to close the gap. Once that happens, the real move for the day starts. I am inclined to see the S&P print positive.

 

[coolhead]

Becareful. I do not trust this market and think that the algos are just taking over to close the gap. Once that happens, the real move for the day starts. I am inclined to see the S&P print positive.

Thanks man... I'm keeping track carefully...once a certain % hit, will use trailing stop loss.

 

[revhappy]

You want to follow Russia? haha good luck then.

https://www.businessinsider.sg/russia-economy-facts-2019-4/?r=US&IR=T


Russia loses 700 people every day

Russia’s economic output plummeted 45% in the decade after the Soviet Union broke up.

More than 13% of Russians live in poverty

Russia’s currency, the ruble, has dropped in value by 50% this decade

The average monthly wage in Russia is $670

Before Putin attacked Ukraine, Russian economy was doing pretty good. Yet, he attacked Ukraine inspite of the sanctions and it's economy was brought to its knees.

In China's case it won't even be that bad.

The point of this whole discussion is who has more power of bearing the pain. Trump or Xi? It is clear Xi has the upper hand. Trump has an election to win.

Anyways, it is increasingly looking that this is not merely about the trade deficit. This is more about clash of ideologies. Trump admin wants to attack Chinese companies that use unfair means to do business.

So in this scenario, there is no scope for negotiation at all. Trump wants to force China to change its ways. There is no way China will accept it without a fight. China was just fooling Trump that they were going to accept the terms, in the meantime buying time and injecting massive stimulus. Trump was too late to realize it.

 

[Trader11]

You must be too naive.

If the demand for China's exports fall, their economic growth will suffer the most.

The impact due to the trade war will pan out negatively to China in the longer term.

Those numbers can be pumped up using QE or monetary policies. Not surprised if Dalio is teaching the Chinese how to do Monetary Policies 3.0

 

[theMKR]

the market moves surprising slow today sia. i tot friday will be explosive

 

[DukeCS33]

the market moves surprising slow today sia. i tot friday will be explosive

I thought we may see a higher close but instead, the S&P struggled. The price and volume shows a case that there is no demand and no supply. We have a higher opening and normally, when there is demand, there should be a price uptick pushed up by surging volume. The volume was lack lustre and the market marked it down instead and that did not draw out the sellers. The black candle suggests that the bears are still in control of prices. The demand zone is between 2800 to 2820 and it is critical that this level holds else we may see further mark downs.

 

[churnmaster]

Russia’s currency, the ruble, has dropped in value by 50% this decade

[/I]

And the stock index, MOEX has more than quadrapuled during the same period .. from below 600 in Mar 2009 to above 2600 now.

It made its most recent peak just this week ... when many other markets were seeing a sell off.

 

[Dividends Warrior]

This week really shows if you are real greedy when everyone is fear!!

The trade war volatility brought out the greed in me.
Had been accumulating UOB, HRnet, Propnex, Apac realty in batches.
Looking forward to apply excess for FCT's preferential offering.

 

[DukeCS33]

This week really shows if you are real greedy when everyone is fear!!

And those who do not act this week shows that next week, they are even more greedy when everyone is even more fearful.

 

[DukeCS33]

Nationalism usually trumps economics. China will evoke nationalist sentiments and people will rally behind their leader and accept the short term pain. Look at Russia as an example.

In any case even China knows that their export model cannot last forever and they were making the adjustment to internal consumption. This will only hasten that adjustment. It will be a short term pain for China but they can withstand it much better than US.

The average American cannot even fund a $400 emergency. It is Trump who will capitulate first.

In a trade war, every country involved loses. So it does not matter if the US has the upper hand or China may triumph over the US. When economic growth slows down and it hits people in their stomach, we may see social unrest. The politicians will be forced to the table and do a major reset. I think if this continues, all risk assets will be hit. Now this trade war has expanded in scope and has become a technology war. If the US is not careful, the Chinese may well accelerate their innovation and dominate the tech world... that's what adversity does... people will just find ways to cope, survive and bypass whatever blocks them now and potentially emerge stronger.