The bears den

[Mecisteus]

And the stock index, MOEX has more than quadrapuled during the same period .. from below 600 in Mar 2009 to above 2600 now.

It made its most recent peak just this week ... when many other markets were seeing a sell off.

Common people on the streets don't buy stocks.

 

[Mecisteus]

In a trade war, every country involved loses. So it does not matter if the US has the upper hand or China may triumph over the US. When economic growth slows down and it hits people in their stomach, we may see social unrest. The politicians will be forced to the table and do a major reset. I think if this continues, all risk assets will be hit. Now this trade war has expanded in scope and has become a technology war. If the US is not careful, the Chinese may well accelerate their innovation and dominate the tech world... that's what adversity does... people will just find ways to cope, survive and bypass whatever blocks them now and potentially emerge stronger.

China's economy is reliant on it's exports. US economy is reliant on consumption.

Chinese techs are still way behind the curve. They are good at copying and reverse engineering. That's why you can't find any Chinese names producing top class semi chips.

The top semi names are Intel, Qualcomm, Broadcom, Micron, ADI, NVDA, Xilinx, Marvell, AMD, etc. All in US.

The Chinese tried to buy Micron. But cannot get approval.

 

[d9_lives]

China's economy is reliant on it's exports. US economy is reliant on consumption.

Chinese techs are still way behind the curve. They are good at copying and reverse engineering. That's why you can't find any Chinese names producing top class semi chips.

The top semi names are Intel, Qualcomm, Broadcom, Micron, ADI, NVDA, Xilinx, Marvell, AMD, etc. All in US.

The Chinese tried to buy Micron. But cannot get approval.

They have Yangtze Memory and they're catching up...

Holy cow...huge discount!!! Great Sale!
Trump the man!

 

[peacefulday]

Fear will only come after greed. Usually begins with a massive volatile trade to favour the Trader in a heaven games, a see-saw low to attract greed, there after hedge fund shorting for fear. The long investors then came in aftermath.

Common people on the streets don't buy stocks.

 

[revhappy]

Found this interesting tweet. Will Trump admin attack China in these areas? Inclusion of A shares into EM stocks index and Chinese bonds in global bond indices?

 

[limster]

Found this interesting tweet. Will Trump admin attack China in these areas? Inclusion of A shares into EM stocks index and Chinese bonds in global bond indices?

Thats why one should never put everything into 1 broker. What if IBKR also get hit by China restrictions?

I'm using FSMOne to invest in China via HKSE. IBKR is more for my Europe/Australia exposure.

 

[Mecisteus]

Great advise, thanks!
I will avoid IB for now as US trade war against China & other countries ragging on.
Think i probably avoid IB forever because we never know when US will have Trump-II!

Also possible for Trump to mandate US brokerages & clients cannot buy China (including HK) stocks? Or all China stocks in their custody got frozen? Then all your China stocks like evaporated?

Another bunny comment.

I suggest you don't buy stocks. Just stick with properties since you said they give you good returns.

 

[peipei1]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/25/the...r-companies-buying-back-their-own-shares.html

Data compiled by Ned Davis Research shows the S&P 500 would be 19% lower without buybacks. The firm looked at the S&P 500′s performance between the first quarter of 2011 and the first three months of 2019. Then they subtracted the amount of net monthly repurchases to arrive to that conclusion. The broad market is up more than 125% in that time while net buybacks have totaled about $3.5 trillion.

But while politicians clamor for buybacks to be curtailed, the market would be trading below current levels if excess cash had been put to work in other ways. Ned Davis Research found the S&P 500 would be 10% lower if excess cash had gone towards dividends rather than buybacks. The broad index would be 2% lower if buybacks were substituted for corporate reinvestment and 5% lower if companies just sat on the excess cash.

The paragraphs hard to understand for me. Is it 19% lower over 8 years? 10% lower if dividend paid or 2% lower if reinvested or 5% lower if do nothing? Am i only one confused?

That aside, i think the P/E ratio are ok right, except for exceptions like google, amz, nvda, those crazy tech giants. So companies are still earning monies despite the buy backs?

 

[Mecisteus]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/25/the...r-companies-buying-back-their-own-shares.html

The paragraphs hard to understand for me. Is it 19% lower over 8 years? 10% lower if dividend paid or 2% lower if reinvested or 5% lower if do nothing? Am i only one confused?

That aside, i think the P/E ratio are ok right, except for exceptions like google, amz, nvda, those crazy tech giants. So companies are still earning monies despite the buy backs?

Just look at the price levels.

 

[peipei1]

I still dont get it.
How much did buybacks distort sp500 wor?

 

[Mecisteus]

I didn't read the article and not sure what is the reference level.

An example:

With buybacks, S&P500 is at 2,500.

Without buybacks, S&P500 would be 0.81 * 2,500.

 

[klarklar]

Great advise, thanks!
I will avoid IB for now as US trade war against China & other countries ragging on.
Think i probably avoid IB forever because we never know when US will have Trump-II!

Also possible for Trump to mandate US brokerages & clients cannot buy China (including HK) stocks? Or all China stocks in their custody got frozen? Then all your China stocks like evaporated?

Another bunny comment.

I suggest you don't buy stocks. Just stick with properties since you said they give you good returns.

I agree with MikeDirnt78. Truly far-fetched risk.

 

[theMKR]

ok i am back!!!

lost a ton of pokemon cards on friday dammit! my option exercise also nv earn much should have exercise it immediately once market open....

time to short the crap out of xlxn and amd later

 

[revhappy]

Japan joining the tech war

 

[SpinFire]

Japan joining the tech war

Abe and Trump had a good Golf game

 

[revhappy]

Asian markets are quite resilient. Not really falling off.

 

[theMKR]

so quiet ....

 

[DukeCS33]

so quiet ....

No news is good news. SP futures +0.25%.

 

[theMKR]

No news is good news. SP futures +0.25%.

may is over, bears went back to hibernation

actually now i have long position for TSLA, hopefully later i can faster exit before it drops more...... yesterday i keep looking to try and exit, then realized market nv open lol

 

[revhappy]

Markets are neither rising nor falling a lot. I think this is a great time to sell PUTs.

My plan is to sell SPY 250 puts for December. The premium is 2% absolute, for the remaining 7 months. I will make it 50% cash secured and have the remaining 50% as backup in SSB.

So I make about 4% returns over the next 7 months. Not bad for risk/reward right?