The bears den

[revhappy]

If Ireland is on the list, meaning UK is also on the list since both using pound?

No lah, pretty sure Ireland uses Euro.

 

[revhappy]

S&P500 futures break 2800. Is this bearish or very bearish?

 

[madtari]

No lah, pretty sure Ireland uses Euro.

I see. Thought all countries in UK are using pound... If Ireland is using Euro, and US put Ireland onto the list of currency manipulator, does that means Ireland has such strong foreign reserves to single-handedly manipulate a currency which is being used by so many other EU countries?

 

[churnmaster]

Technical observations:

S&P held on to the 2800 level.

There was an observed lack of demand on 24th May and this was followed by an effort to move down last night with a close near lows. Buyers have retreated and if they are not showing up at the key support level at 2800 then what? Or are they waiting to spring a trap on short sellers?

The sell off volume last night was above average and that potentially means an attempt to break through key support level with strong intent and momentum. Wil it succeed?

20 EMA is crossing below a downward sloping 50 EMA in the daily charts

In the weekly chart, the sell off volume is matching that which drove the index down in Dec 2018 - are the insto players participating in this sell off?

Macro observations:

10y UST yields approaches a 19 month low

Yield curve inversion 3mths vs 10 years though the widely followed indicator of recession is the 2yr vs 10yr UST yields. The later is still maintaining a positive spread

10y UST yields is below fed funds rate and that is a warning sign of stock market turmoil.

Fundamentals:

Consumer confidence is exhibiting strength

Various US Investment banks are revising coming quarter's GDP lower

Trump indicated not ready to make deal with China

China hinted at weaponizing rare earth.



---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Draw your own conclusions

The way in which the index closed overnight, was a bit surprising .... looks like we'll get a gap down opening below 2800 tonight and if the index closes below 2800, it'll be interesting.

The currency markets are relatively stable and so are the commodities.

 

[revhappy]

The way in which the index closed overnight, was a bit surprising .... looks like we'll get a gap down opening below 2800 tonight and if the index closes below 2800, it'll be interesting.

The currency markets are relatively stable and so are the commodities.

It is the bond yields and credit spreads that are spooking markets. It seems BBB rated issues are at record levels even higher than in 2009 levels.

So I think it will be a debt/bond market crisis that will screw equities.

 

[DukeCS33]

The way in which the index closed overnight, was a bit surprising .... looks like we'll get a gap down opening below 2800 tonight and if the index closes below 2800, it'll be interesting.

The currency markets are relatively stable and so are the commodities.

Well, I expected an upside test and did not think that the index would try the downside so fast. So the reaction is more bearish than I thought and reflective of the nerves that the Market may have about the way trade talks are going and on the dimming outlook going forward.

I am not all too concern with the debt side of things as liquidity is still flush... one hardly have a credit blow up when there is excess liquidity. So I think its really trade tension driven coupled with a Fed that has indicated that they may not be moving soon. The Bond market is pricing in a slowdown and that the Fed would cut.. the Fed indicated otherwise... so guess the equity market bore the bulk of that transmission in disappointment.


Futures reflecting a break in 2800 but I would not read too much into the moves now. However, when screening stocks this morning, I noticed several disturbing price volume actions... almost like a big wave of short selling may be coming.... most long swing stock candidates reflected weak demand and some hidden selling and I fear that those looking to swing long may be trapped.

 

[coolhead]

Well, I expected an upside test and did not think that the index would try the downside so fast. So the reaction is more bearish than I thought and reflective of the nerves that the Market may have about the way trade talks are going and on the dimming outlook going forward.

I am not all too concern with the debt side of things as liquidity is still flush... one hardly have a credit blow up when there is excess liquidity. So I think its really trade tension driven coupled with a Fed that has indicated that they may not be moving soon. The Bond market is pricing in a slowdown and that the Fed would cut.. the Fed indicated otherwise... so guess the equity market bore the bulk of that transmission in disappointment.


Futures reflecting a break in 2800 but I would not read too much into the moves now. However, when screening stocks this morning, I noticed several disturbing price volume actions... almost like a big wave of short selling may be coming.... most long swing stock candidates reflected weak demand and some hidden selling and I fear that those looking to swing long may be trapped.

I agree I wouldn't read too much into moves now as well. Things always have a way of making so many moves when US sleeps only to turn the other way when market opens. Still maintaining my short since last Friday though.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[revhappy]

 

[coolhead]

Wow ...can I say that this is a good indicator? That's some leading indicator and very strong positive correlation

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[coolhead]

https://www.extremetech.com/computing/290738-q1-2019-semiconductor-sales-fell-by-4th-largest-decline-in-35-years

The massive decline in semiconductor sales is being driven by a number of factors. There’s the expected drop in RAM and NAND sales caused by simultaneous declines in both the smartphone and data center markets, the ongoing impact of trade disputes between the US and China, and economic uncertainty around Brexit. There have been fears of sluggish growth in China and other countries as well.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[theMKR]

One of my stocks hit a new all time high today.

Imagine if I were to panic and sold out?

Let me guess, shop?

 

[theMKR]

New product launched.

Yeah cut my losses after it rose 40c. i reshorted at 29 thou lol.

 

[coolhead]

Hmm...I thought that eps data will be buffered by corporate share buybacks. But even then, the positive correlation is still there....so even corporate share buybacks can only paint a picture so good and not hide the gloom.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[DukeCS33]

Yeah cut my losses after it rose 40c. i reshorted at 29 thou lol.

I was playing this from the long side - market was weak yesterday except AMD. But I did not have conviction to hold it for too long and took very quick profits... Still view the whole chip space with a lot of scepticism, and the Chinese US trade fight made things worse.

Am now thinking of a major med term short position but not quite made up my mind on how I would play this.... work on a breakout or play it conservative and wait for retracement. I somehow suspect that Fed's hand may be forced if we have too volatile a sell off in the stock market and that means the downside may be supported somewhat.

Official mouthpiece of the Chinese :

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ths-ruling-party-newspaper-idUSKCN1SZ07V?il=0

This may cripple major US industries!

 

[revhappy]

Major rebound in Hang Seng index.

 

[Trader11]

Lol! Seriously? We must then buy SGD & MYR, since US thinks it is undervalued.

Trumptard really damn funny......

 

[revhappy]

Whoa another leg down for the futures!

 

[revhappy]

 

[coolhead]

Whoa another leg down for the futures!

I can't find any related news. Both futures down and gold up simultaneously.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[churnmaster]

Well, I expected an upside test and did not think that the index would try the downside so fast. So the reaction is more bearish than I thought and reflective of the nerves that the Market may have about the way trade talks are going and on the dimming outlook going forward.

I am not all too concern with the debt side of things as liquidity is still flush... one hardly have a credit blow up when there is excess liquidity. So I think its really trade tension driven coupled with a Fed that has indicated that they may not be moving soon. The Bond market is pricing in a slowdown and that the Fed would cut.. the Fed indicated otherwise... so guess the equity market bore the bulk of that transmission in disappointment.


Futures reflecting a break in 2800 but I would not read too much into the moves now. However, when screening stocks this morning, I noticed several disturbing price volume actions... almost like a big wave of short selling may be coming.... most long swing stock candidates reflected weak demand and some hidden selling and I fear that those looking to swing long may be trapped.

Yeah, even I was expecting a move up to 2860 before the index turns lower. However, that dint happen and the index turned lower overnight without any real spike in volatility. Lets see how it goes tonight.