The bears den

[revhappy]

 

[theMKR]

i think i try something: SPY, 20190703, 268, PUT, Option, SMART, USD

 

[theMKR]

wah suddenly everything shoot up

 

[theMKR]

lots of ups and down, but no pattern. boring night.

short tsla and slp

 

[coolhead]

Covered my short yesterday. See how it goes.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[revhappy]

 

[DukeCS33]

In the absence of any Sino-US war of words, the equity market would take its cue from the UST market and economic data release. The bond market is flashing signs of recessions and increasing probability of a Fed cut. The Fed has indicated that they would stay on hold and as such, if we have data that disappoints, this scenario would increasingly be baked in to the point that the Fed cannot ignore.

Things cannot go up or down in a linear fashion just as the world is dynamic and not given to forecast. For now, the Bears have the upper hand, having broken below key support of 2800 in the S&P. I would think that this 2800 level would be tested a few times before the next wave of selling may happen. 2767 is the 50 day MA in the weekly chart and remains a key level from here... no coincidence that this level arrested the downside in last night's trading.

For me, I would be looking for good technical setups to establish fresh shorts. This can be difficult for me as I am not given to breakout plays, preferring always to trade retracements..... my stock scanners are not showing much swing short patterns either.... maybe it is time to readjust my trading style as time and tide waits for no man and the opportunity may well be gone by the time I gain comfort in playing breakouts.

Happy to hear ideas.... I would particularly value alternative or bullish views.

 

[revhappy]

 

[DukeCS33]

The 10y UST futures indicated a inverted hammer with high volume. So there was a bit of climatic volume action followed by a bearish close. There may be a bit of pull back - not sure given the backdrop if things may reverse direction though.

 

[revhappy]

 

[coolhead]

dB has been taking a staircase down for past 5 years mah.... Don't know what is he smoking.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[coolhead]

In the absence of any Sino-US war of words, the equity market would take its cue from the UST market and economic data release. The bond market is flashing signs of recessions and increasing probability of a Fed cut. The Fed has indicated that they would stay on hold and as such, if we have data that disappoints, this scenario would increasingly be baked in to the point that the Fed cannot ignore.

Things cannot go up or down in a linear fashion just as the world is dynamic and not given to forecast. For now, the Bears have the upper hand, having broken below key support of 2800 in the S&P. I would think that this 2800 level would be tested a few times before the next wave of selling may happen. 2767 is the 50 day MA in the weekly chart and remains a key level from here... no coincidence that this level arrested the downside in last night's trading.

For me, I would be looking for good technical setups to establish fresh shorts. This can be difficult for me as I am not given to breakout plays, preferring always to trade retracements..... my stock scanners are not showing much swing short patterns either.... maybe it is time to readjust my trading style as time and tide waits for no man and the opportunity may well be gone by the time I gain comfort in playing breakouts.

Happy to hear ideas.... I would particularly value alternative or bullish views.

If the fed wants to maintain its credibility, it will maintain rates. I still don't foresee a rate cut.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[churnmaster]

i had bad experience with options, although my first 2 options did return profits, i realized i cant exercise them during pre-market which might be super lucrative

Exercise comes into picture only around expiry ..... If you are long an option and if its value has appreciated, then you have to just sell the option to realize your gains and close the position, similar to any other stock.

 

[theMKR]

Exercise comes into picture only around expiry ..... If you are long an option and if its value has appreciated, then you have to just sell the option to realize your gains and close the position, similar to any other stock.

ah...
now that i think about it, yeah, since value appreciated + some left over premium....

i must be retarded

 

[coolhead]

Thankfully futures is turning greener.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[churnmaster]

In the absence of any Sino-US war of words, the equity market would take its cue from the UST market and economic data release. The bond market is flashing signs of recessions and increasing probability of a Fed cut. The Fed has indicated that they would stay on hold and as such, if we have data that disappoints, this scenario would increasingly be baked in to the point that the Fed cannot ignore.

Things cannot go up or down in a linear fashion just as the world is dynamic and not given to forecast. For now, the Bears have the upper hand, having broken below key support of 2800 in the S&P. I would think that this 2800 level would be tested a few times before the next wave of selling may happen. 2767 is the 50 day MA in the weekly chart and remains a key level from here... no coincidence that this level arrested the downside in last night's trading.

For me, I would be looking for good technical setups to establish fresh shorts. This can be difficult for me as I am not given to breakout plays, preferring always to trade retracements..... my stock scanners are not showing much swing short patterns either.... maybe it is time to readjust my trading style as time and tide waits for no man and the opportunity may well be gone by the time I gain comfort in playing breakouts.

Happy to hear ideas.... I would particularly value alternative or bullish views.

Yeah I thought, the market will fill the gap first and 2800 level will get tested before any further down, however that din't happen overnight. I entered a short OTM call position early on in the day and maintain the same. For now the downside target is around 2740 / 2725, with the intention to close the short around 2740.

While many of these markets traded lower, some markets have been showing divergences .... Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, etc ... basically large domestic driven EMs. Looks like money flowing into these markets.

 

[revhappy]

Yeah I thought, the market will fill the gap first and 2800 level will get tested before any further down, however that din't happen overnight. I entered a short OTM call position early on in the day and maintain the same. For now the downside target is around 2740 / 2725, with the intention to close the short around 2740.

While many of these markets traded lower, some markets have been showing divergences .... Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, etc ... basically large domestic driven EMs. Looks like money flowing into these markets.

Are you using DBS treasures to sell options? What is the commission?

BTW, DBS treasures has a buy call on Sembcorp Industries and it is making lows everyday. I guess it is a falling knife but can be rewarding.

 

[coolhead]

Yeah I thought, the market will fill the gap first and 2800 level will get tested before any further down, however that din't happen overnight. I entered a short OTM call position early on in the day and maintain the same. For now the downside target is around 2740 / 2725, with the intention to close the short around 2740.

While many of these markets traded lower, some markets have been showing divergences .... Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, etc ... basically large domestic driven EMs. Looks like money flowing into these markets.

But if that's the case, shouldn't USD be moving down if money is flowing out of US markets into these ems?

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[churnmaster]

But if that's the case, shouldn't USD be moving down if money is flowing out of US markets into these ems?

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

Well the money might be flowing out of other markets into these EMs.

 

[coolhead]

Well the money might be flowing out of other markets into these EMs.

I see I see. Hopefully tonight will be an exciting roller coaster.

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