The bears den

[revhappy]

It is getting so hard to swing trade. There are not any ideal short setups and plentiful of long swing ones. The dilemma I have is that I am fundamentally bearish, the S&P trades below 50 and 200 day MA and hence I have little confidence in taking long positions.... the odds weights heavily against those who trade longs when the index is falling or showing bearish tendencies beyond those that resulted from corrections.

I think I will be pretty happy getting in 50% allocated around 2500-2600 S&P500 levels. The bull run is not ending this year. It has atleast 2 more years to run and then we have a recession.

I am just wondering if selling SPY PUTs of 260 is a good way to play this. The risk is that markets make a deep low in the next 2-3 month but then bounce back by the end of the year. I will then miss out on buying cheap and get stuck with the premium.

I want the premium also and want to buy low also.

 

[revhappy]

Asian markets reluctant to fall.

 

[DukeCS33]

I think I will be pretty happy getting in 50% allocated around 2500-2600 S&P500 levels. The bull run is not ending this year. It has atleast 2 more years to run and then we have a recession.

I am just wondering if selling SPY PUTs of 260 is a good way to play this. The risk is that markets make a deep low in the next 2-3 month but then bounce back by the end of the year. I will then miss out on buying cheap and get stuck with the premium.

I want the premium also and want to buy low also.

We get a bounce only if the Fed steps in and cut rates or if the trade issues get resolved. If you are trading long term, you need to form a view around the 2 events. The way you are going about this suggest that you want your cake and eat it - things cannot be had for so good and you need to decide a compromise between collecting premiums and catching the bounce..... catching the turning point is an extremely difficult task already and more so if you do not have conviction or strong views. You just need to weigh the risks and trade accordingly.

 

[revhappy]

We get a bounce only if the Fed steps in and cut rates or if the trade issues get resolved. If you are trading long term, you need to form a view around the 2 events. The way you are going about this suggest that you want your cake and eat it - things cannot be had for so good and you need to decide a compromise between collecting premiums and catching the bounce..... catching the turning point is an extremely difficult task already and more so if you do not have conviction or strong views. You just need to weigh the risks and trade accordingly.

Fed won't step in until the balancesheet rolloff in September. If they cut rates so soon, markets will get spooked. So if anything rate cut could come only by end of the year.

Trade war will get resolved only if markets crash and then Trump will capitulate.

So it is a chicken and egg, markets not falling because Trump will make trade peace. Trump won't make trade peace until market falls.

 

[limster]

Are you using DBS treasures to sell options? What is the commission?

BTW, DBS treasures has a buy call on Sembcorp Industries and it is making lows everyday. I guess it is a falling knife but can be rewarding.

i have been accumulating Sembcorp this week. buying more today.

By the way, have you changed your mind about market crash this year? I have been adding to my warchest every month and waiting with you for the big sale!

 

[eD1s0n]

Plot twist: market timers are the dumb ones.
People who buy regularly regardless of the headlines are not dumb, they are....investors.

There're 2 more likely scenarios that will happen:
1. You will eat your words and enter anyway eventhough S&P is well above 2k or 2.5k.
2. You'll find another story and paint it as the potential cause of market -20/-30%.

I just realise this came true earlier than expected

 

[DukeCS33]

Fed won't step in until the balancesheet rolloff in September. If they cut rates so soon, markets will get spooked. So if anything rate cut could come only by end of the year.

Trade war will get resolved only if markets crash and then Trump will capitulate.

So it is a chicken and egg, markets not falling because Trump will make trade peace. Trump won't make trade peace until market falls.

If the market is not expecting a rate cut and the Fed cuts, then markets would get spooked and crash... if the market is expecting a cut and the Fed is not delivering, then they will just continue to sell off equities until the Fed delivers and that's where the bleeding may be stemmed.

I doubt Trump would capitulate - it is not in his nature... but he may lose the next election and the Markets may rally in hope that the new incoming Head reverses things. If I were China, I would not bother with Trump anymore... he can easily do another version of tariffs even with an agreement in place - this is what is happening to Mexico now. China can easily put on measures to support domestic growth and ignore the US until a new president gets elected.

 

[DukeCS33]

i have been accumulating Sembcorp this week. buying more today.

By the way, have you changed your mind about market crash this year? I have been adding to my warchest every month and waiting with you for the big sale!

What is it in Sembcorp that is drawing your attention?

 

[revhappy]

i have been accumulating Sembcorp this week. buying more today.

By the way, have you changed your mind about market crash this year? I have been adding to my warchest every month and waiting with you for the big sale!

I think crash will come, we should go down to S&P500 2500 atleast. It could go down all the way to 2000. But my plan is to get 50% allocated around 2500-2600 range and remaining when market breaks the December 2018 low.

I could be wrong and Trump makes trade peace suddenly and markets dont fall that much. That is the risk which is why I am selling PUTs so that atleast I keep the premium.

 

[revhappy]

I doubt Trump would capitulate - it is not in his nature... but he may lose the next election and the Markets may rally in hope that the new incoming Head reverses things. If I were China, I would not bother with Trump anymore... he can easily do another version of tariffs even with an agreement in place - this is what is happening to Mexico now. China can easily put on measures to support domestic growth and ignore the US until a new president gets elected.

Trump is a master of playing with words and he is a businessman. He could easily say that he is not capitulating and that China wants to make the deal. He is already alluding to that. He said yesterday, China would want to make a deal, they cant lose billions.

 

[revhappy]

Most investment banks had S&P500 targets of 3000 to 3250 for end of the year. Are they going to revise now?

 

[theMKR]

sian couldnt buy tsla @ 183.31 pre market, end up i closed my position at 185.6

 

[coolhead]

Trump is a master of playing with words and he is a businessman. He could easily say that he is not capitulating and that China wants to make the deal. He is already alluding to that. He said yesterday, China would want to make a deal, they cant lose billions.

All I know is that trump is a liar and unpredictable... He is the ***** reason I have stop loss in place.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[revhappy]

The eternal bull Jim Cramer is stunned.

 

[theMKR]

All I know is that trump is a liar and unpredictable... He is the ***** reason I have stop loss in place.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

i duno how to use the stop loss/attach profit properly.

i still kidda eyeball the graph and adjust, which waste a lot of my time.

 

[revhappy]

All I know is that trump is a liar and unpredictable... He is the ***** reason I have stop loss in place.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

He is a liar but he lies with such confidence and with a straight face and does it enough times that people accept the lies as truth.

 

[coolhead]

i duno how to use the stop loss/attach profit properly.

i still kidda eyeball the graph and adjust, which waste a lot of my time.

If u dun wish to adjust , some trading platform allow you to use a trailing stop loss,e.g interactive brokers. Trailing Stop loss can be to limit your losses and/or maximise your profits.

Let's say a stock keep going up and you want to protect your profits in case stock price moves down. Let's say stock price is now 100. You can say set a limit price of 90 with a trailing % of 2%. So the stop price is 2% downwards of the maximum stock price. At current stock price of 100, then trailing stop is 98 and limit is 90.

If stock price is 110, then trailing stop is adjusted upwards to 107.80 and limit is maintained at 90.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[revhappy]

Looks at the confidence of this guy. His own bank could blowup by the end of the year.

 

[Mecisteus]

I think crash will come, we should go down to S&P500 2500 atleast. It could go down all the way to 2000. But my plan is to get 50% allocated around 2500-2600 range and remaining when market breaks the December 2018 low.

I see you are changing plans?

 

[revhappy]

I see you are changing plans?

I don't think my plan was very different. Please tell what was my plan?