The bears den

[Trader11]

Then maybe they are not rules but a framework that is given to interpretation and discretion.

Without a system, it will always be over emotional and there is no way to formally improve what you are doing. Been there and done it. One has to continuously learn, read and test forward and backward. And be patient about it.

 

[theMKR]

one day down, one day up

yesterday up, today down

 

[SBC]

one day down, one day up

yesterday up, today down

Volatility is good and healthy.

 

[coolhead]

one day down, one day up

yesterday up, today down

today should be down based on the downtrend channel.

 

[coolhead]

A noob at drawing charts....Kinda noticed this downtrend...not sure if it is accurate.

 

[revhappy]

Lol, the bulls got scared with just a 5% correction and had to bring their army of fed speakers to come and calm the nerves and promise rate cuts etc.

 

[Trader11]

Lol, the bulls got scared with just a 5% correction and had to bring their army of fed speakers to come and calm the nerves and promise rate cuts etc.

I think it's planned. Lots of bullish movement at the start of the month. Accumulation is probably completed. Now to squeeze the bears

 

[MrHighlander]

One word - market is unpredictable

Don’t reason - just go in when the buy in price hits your threshold

For me hell no as of now

 

[churnmaster]

A noob at drawing charts....Kinda noticed this downtrend...not sure if it is accurate.

You can use the "parallel channel" from the drawing tools to draw the channel. For a downtrending channel, connect the tops of the bars and then draw a parallel line for the channel.

Based on the daily charts on S&P Futures, for now it seems its breaking out of the channel on the upside tonight.

 

[churnmaster]

Btw, the rally in UST over the last few weeks, is a very good opportunity for the Chinese to liquidate part of their holdings and invest in other safe haven like gold.

 

[DukeCS33]

You can use the "parallel channel" from the drawing tools to draw the channel. For a downtrending channel, connect the tops of the bars and then draw a parallel line for the channel.

Based on the daily charts on S&P Futures, for now it seems its breaking out of the channel on the upside tonight.

Wait for the close before deciding if a break out occurs. In any case, 2820 is a resistance point and the low from 20 May at 2833 is another resistance.

If I consider patterns, then the lines look like a falling wedge - it is too early for the breakout if that were the case.

 

[DukeCS33]

ADP bombed at +27k. (expectation at +175k, last +275k)

10y UST futures ticked higher in reaction. (yields lower) SP futures ticking down a little... not sure if the Market may like to interpret this as a higher chance of a rate cut and therefore react positively when the markets open. But this certainly adds on to a wall of worries on top of trade tensions.

 

[peipei1]

Iwda never fall below my average still, so buying upro, selling after every 1 upthrust, last night was really good, 2 upthrust! Still feel bearish until china trade war is solved...

 

[peipei1]

I will get rid of my short PUTs on this upmove.

Why leh? What is your new strategy now?

 

[revhappy]

Why leh? What is your new strategy now?

Watch from outside with popcorn. Let's see, if really fed needs to cut rates in this excellent economy and markets at close to all time high, what does that mean for stocks.

Think about this, people are piling in bonds and record amount of bonds are yielding negative. So when so many people want to own bonds instead of stocks in this excellent economy, why be a contrarion? I will also hold fixed income, like them all.

 

[churnmaster]

Wait for the close before deciding if a break out occurs. In any case, 2820 is a resistance point and the low from 20 May at 2833 is another resistance.

If I consider patterns, then the lines look like a falling wedge - it is too early for the breakout if that were the case.

Yes, you are right ... after the gap up opening lets see whether the market closes below yesterday's close.

 

[DukeCS33]

The SP500 continued to build on its rally. If I look at the preopening moves in teh SP futures, there was a decline to the 2800 level but that level held. Overhead supply at resistance line at 2820 was being met before the push higher to 2830. This is a market that has some pent up buying and we may push forth since the down trendline resistance was broken to the upside. Next resistance is at 2850. A case can be made for the rally to push higher for the next few sessions and the only point of consideration for me is the lack of volume. This suggests the lack of funds participation.
On the background, we have Mexico / US talks. This may be a headline news that may drive sentiments. Employment numbers would be watched as well.

On trading, last night was very quiet for me. There were not any ideal setups other than a scalp on Dell which I missed for stupid reasons. Fractals look great and my intention was to short on break of 55.

What was that stupid reason? I flew blind for quite awhile as my keyboard battery ran out of juice.

 

[revhappy]

 

[churnmaster]

The SP500 continued to build on its rally. If I look at the preopening moves in teh SP futures, there was a decline to the 2800 level but that level held. Overhead supply at resistance line at 2820 was being met before the push higher to 2830. This is a market that has some pent up buying and we may push forth since the down trendline resistance was broken to the upside. Next resistance is at 2850. A case can be made for the rally to push higher for the next few sessions and the only point of consideration for me is the lack of volume. This suggests the lack of funds participation.
On the background, we have Mexico / US talks. This may be a headline news that may drive sentiments. Employment numbers would be watched as well.

On trading, last night was very quiet for me. There were not any ideal setups other than a scalp on Dell which I missed for stupid reasons. Fractals look great and my intention was to short on break of 55.

What was that stupid reason? I flew blind for quite awhile as my keyboard battery ran out of juice.

While the US market closed higher overnight, the asian markets have been mostly lower. Market needs another Trump tweet to push it lower

May be we get next Monday (10th Jun) by when most of the important data points would also be out.

 

[DukeCS33]

While the US market closed higher overnight, the asian markets have been mostly lower. Market needs another Trump tweet to push it lower

May be we get next Monday (10th Jun) by when most of the important data points would also be out.

I am not a permabear. And I would just trade based on what the market tells me and how I interpret the technical signals. Right now, the down trend line and pivot around 2800 in S&P has been broken and that is telling me that I should be open to upside rallies or a broader sideways movement and not just focus onto the downside. European markets are mostly in the green so that adds on a little more juice for the SP to push higher... so until we get the next reversal signal....


Take a look at the weekly SP chart - Market is attempting a reversal amidst a background of a change in behaviour to the bearish side. Potential bullish engulfing candle in the making.

On a fundamental footing, I think the markets are getting ahead of themselves in pricing in a rate cut and that may be a possible reason why we have this mini rally of late. I do not think the Fed would cut. Employment trend is still strong and not about to drop off the cliff... the market may be in for a rude awakening should Fed start saying that while they are open to cuts, the current situation may not warrant for one as yet.