The bears den

[Mecisteus]

My take is the STI could be flat until the next major announcement from US or China.

STI is heavily reliant on the banks and Singtel.

As our economy matures, expected returns for STI has to adjust lower.

Probably 5-6% pa inclusive of dividends as long term returns.

 

[andyhtc]

I'm already quite happy with 3-4% return in the long run.

I rarely buy shares as I'm still learning slowly, but once I buy I will not sell.

 

[DukeCS33]

u r too fixed on being a bear and using every bearish news to justify why market shouldn't be moving this way.

You should just feel the market and looked at the charts more ...
the news always come later to justify the moves.

This can be dangerous if one is given to confirmation bias. And if one is not open enough to listen to the market, then it can lead to financial loss. Whatever it is, the market is always right and the trend is your friend.

 

[Mecisteus]

I look at my account I go

revhappy if you keep your portfolio, I think you can sleep like a baby tonight.

 

[peipei1]

Was last month the sell in May and go away coming true?
Market rock up despite poorer economic results...fundamentals are not supportive?
If Trump did not make trade wars worser, we can see a global economic come back, but he did...
Oh at least Fed is cutting rate at least 1 step down, cheaper housing loan refinancing!

 

[revhappy]

I don't know, I can't be bothered to know what's the reasons for the bull run.

All I know there will always be more good news than bad news. Thus, market will go up more times than down.

The longer term trend is up. Don't go against it.

Going against = gambling = go hell or heaven. I prefer less heaven and safer.

This logic is same as what property bulls say, prices always go up. Anyways, we both have made our positions clear and we are not going to waver from it. Let's see, the game is not over yet. For the moment you can enjoy your moment of glory, cheers!

 

[revhappy]

I look at my account I go

revhappy if you keep your portfolio, I think you can sleep like a baby tonight.

As a non believer there is no way I can sleep well with positions on, I would sell it and only then sleep well.

 

[eD1s0n]

As a non believer there is no way I can sleep well with positions on, I would sell it and only then sleep well.

bro given your earning/saving power and risk appetite, i think it makes more sense for you to just dump all in fixed income.

no point to invest in equities if you do not think thatmarkets will go higher in the long run.

 

[Investnewbie82]

Is there any reliable theory on how the economics are these days? Like with Fed ready to rescue anytime the market goes down and other measures in place. Does it mean shorter turnaround times? Or market will not drop as much as previously?

What does it take for the cycle to restart?

 

[Shiny Things]

I agree. This is really insane. We got all the bad news possible and more and it was the perfect setup for crash

Not really? 75k is on the weak side, but not unexpectedly low given the weak ADP number... and frankly cuts were already pretty much priced in.

And Donny Two Scoops is probably going to fold on Mexican tariffs like a cheap umbrella, which'll give us a bit of a relief rally if it happens.

I'm curious, rev: you obviously think the US market is absolutely toast; I disagree with that, but that's fine, it takes two to make a market. Questions:

1) At what point do you turn bullish? I assume you don't think the SPX is headed to zero, so... at what point would you stop being bearish?
2) At what point would you say "I'm wrong"? I hope you're not going to turn into one of those people who says "it's going to crash" while the market rockets higher in your face for five years... you've seen the performance charts of dedicated bear funds, right?

 

[peipei1]

Is there any reliable theory on how the economics are these days? Like with Fed ready to rescue anytime the market goes down and other measures in place. Does it mean shorter turnaround times? Or market will not drop as much as previously?

What does it take for the cycle to restart?

My theory is since the last Gfc, government printed more money, but this money the bulk is taken up as coporate loans after rescuing financial institutions. Cheap money is not distributed evenly downwards, so inflation is flatish as consumers cannot overspent. A part of coporate borrowings used to buy back own shares, even more uneven distribution, and pushed markets higher. The passive etf movement got more popular due to social media outreach, markets pushed even higher and now more stable as the results looked good year after year. Economy did also recovered thanks to technology advances in 4G, nand memory servers, AI, cloud servers, online shopping, startups creating new industry.

What does it take for the cycle restart? I feel if money continue to be cheap and no unscrupulous events, those of which caused the last 2 crisis, we should be good, small 15% corrections caused by short trade wars is the worse it gets.

Should Donny Trump goes bonker and turn into a cold-trade-war with China, then it may cause the next shock, businesses may find it hard to repay the loans, and one by one they die, one by one unemployment rises!

 

[Mecisteus]

bro given your earning/saving power and risk appetite, i think it makes more sense for you to just dump all in fixed income.

no point to invest in equities if you do not think thatmarkets will go higher in the long run.

$0 in equities is definitely not wise.

Don't need to dump everything in equities.

Why not 20 or 30% in equities?

 

[Mecisteus]

This logic is same as what property bulls say, prices always go up.

Investing in property is totally a different animal.

1) You can't invest in smaller quantum like $1k or $10k with properties
2) Downside is quite limited with properties. ie The value cannot go to 0. So logically, the upside is going to be limited and controlled especially with government intervention. Property prices are affecting the mass public.
3) If you look at the long term historical returns of property prices, they aren't really outstanding and beaten hands down by returns from stocks. What makes properties attractive is because of the leverage.

 

[revhappy]

Not really? 75k is on the weak side, but not unexpectedly low given the weak ADP number... and frankly cuts were already pretty much priced in.

And Donny Two Scoops is probably going to fold on Mexican tariffs like a cheap umbrella, which'll give us a bit of a relief rally if it happens.

I'm curious, rev: you obviously think the US market is absolutely toast; I disagree with that, but that's fine, it takes two to make a market. Questions:

1) At what point do you turn bullish? I assume you don't think the SPX is headed to zero, so... at what point would you stop being bearish?
2) At what point would you say "I'm wrong"? I hope you're not going to turn into one of those people who says "it's going to crash" while the market rockets higher in your face for five years... you've seen the performance charts of dedicated bear funds, right?

1)
I am using the Dec 2018 plunge levels as reference.
We now have more bad news that needs to be discounted v/s then
1)Escalated trade war with China
2)New trade war fronts opened up
3)Sugar high from Trump tax cuts wearing off
4)PMIs of most countries coming in lower, global slowdown
5)Strong Dollar, affecting export earnings of companies.
6)Bond yields plunging to record lows, which means investors are rushing to safety. Why are they doing that if equity prices are attractive?


So we have multiple factors that will affect earnings and hence SPX should be closer to 2500.

2)If equities keep climbing higher, I just give up equities. To me the risk of being invested and then experiencing a plunge with no recovery for a long period is worse than not being invested and markets ripping higher.

 

[andyhtc]

The regional economies are growing quite well at around 5% or higher.

Singapore is the exception due to several constraints e.g. ageing working population, surging healthcare costs, limited land etc.

This year we might grow at only around 1%+, so STI should be flat.

Hence, the gloom is only in Singapore in this region.

 

[SibehHL]

It depends on how old are you and what your outlook on your career is etc.

If you are late 30s and early 40s and if your best earning years are behind you then and you have accumulated a lot of cash, then why risk it at all?

The argument is that inflation will eat into your purchasing power. True, but you can mitigate this by saving more and by continuing to work as long as possible.

Anyone that peaked at late 30s and have their best earning years behind them afterwards should perhaps look into changing job or career... this person will either be one of those one hit wonder or totally can’t make it type.

From personal experience, one’s best earning years starts around mid forties and stagnant in mid fifties if unable to go further up the ladder.

There are plenty of people whom wanted to do their own things after accumulating a sizable retirement nest

 

[NewInvestor]

Trump says the US and Mexico have reached a deal to avoid tariffs - https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/07/tru...ico-have-reached-a-deal-to-avoid-tariffs.html

Stock markets are going to shoot up even more.

 

[hachi]

Now stock prices shoot because of tweets... Hoohoh.. Tramp play a few rounds, he would get richer even he don't get elected..

 

[DukeCS33]

Anyone that peaked at late 30s and have their best earning years behind them afterwards should perhaps look into changing job or career... this person will either be one of those one hit wonder or totally can’t make it type.

From personal experience, one’s best earning years starts around mid forties and stagnant in mid fifties if unable to go further up the ladder.

There are plenty of people whom wanted to do their own things after accumulating a sizable retirement nest

It depends on the industry. We seldom see investment bankers in their 50s. Most have their best years in their 30s and see earnings plateauing in their early 40s. The interns at investment banks start their career with a 120k pa income. Many do not make the cut and only a handful survived the analyst stage. They work obscene hours but get rewarded handsomely if they survive. Few can sustain such working regime but many would have achieved a comfortable retirement by their 40s.

 

[Trader11]

It depends on the industry. We seldom see investment bankers in their 50s. Most have their best years in their 30s and see earnings plateauing in their early 40s. The interns at investment banks start their career with a 120k pa income. Many do not make the cut and only a handful survived the analyst stage. They work obscene hours but get rewarded handsomely if they survive. Few can sustain such working regime but many would have achieved a comfortable retirement by their 40s.

I see plenty of them working 5 years then quit for retirement job. It is the **** you money