The bears den

[SBC]

Boring nite, no swing.

 

[revhappy]

 

[NewInvestor]

All the shortists really got squeezed the last 3 days. Shorting is a risky game especially in this market when politics seem to be a greater determinant of the short term direction of the market. The Feds had no business to think of a rate cut n yet, some Fed guy hinted broadly of a rate cut, thus sparking a mini rally. It seems to me that Trump n his buddies are determined to keep the markets up up up whilst trying to restrain the further rise of the FAANG stocks. My guess is that he doesn't want the FAANGs to start a market rout.

 

[revhappy]

All the shortists really got squeezed the last 3 days. Shorting is a risky game especially in this market when politics seem to be a greater determinant of the short term direction of the market. The Feds had no business to think of a rate cut n yet, some Fed guy hinted broadly of a rate cut, thus sparking a mini rally. It seems to me that Trump n his buddies are determined to keep the markets up up up whilst trying to restrain the further rise of the FAANG stocks. My guess is that he doesn't want the FAANGs to start a market rout.

If you have holding power, then the risk of shorting is same as long. But somehow we are conditioned that markets always go up eventually, so people who short fear of that.

 

[DukeCS33]

All the shortists really got squeezed the last 3 days. Shorting is a risky game especially in this market when politics seem to be a greater determinant of the short term direction of the market. The Feds had no business to think of a rate cut n yet, some Fed guy hinted broadly of a rate cut, thus sparking a mini rally. It seems to me that Trump n his buddies are determined to keep the markets up up up whilst trying to restrain the further rise of the FAANG stocks. My guess is that he doesn't want the FAANGs to start a market rout.

Traders who shorted on break of 2800 may have got squeezed while those who shorted at higher levels are ok. Shorting is more risky in a world where everyone hangs on to bullish tendencies and I would think that the majority tends towards optimism. However, trading by shorting is not the same as trading by going long. If you observe, sell offs tend to be violent and quick while buying tends towards a slower climb relatively... they are driven by different emotions - fear vs greed. So how one trades by shorting would differ from how one trades by going long. There is also a higher cost to shorting compared to going long.
I would agree with you on Fed. The bar is set quite high for a rate cut and there has already been some Fed talk regards to how they view market volatility - it provides information but is not a main determinant for cutting rates. Right now, optimism around a positive outcome for Mexico / US talk is keeping the rally going... that to me is a mere side show... Sino - US tension is still the main driver.

 

[DukeCS33]

If you have holding power, then the risk of shorting is same as long. But somehow we are conditioned that markets always go up eventually, so people who short fear of that.

The people who long would also fear the shortist if all of them comes out in greater numbers

 

[Mecisteus]

Shorting is a risky game especially in this market when politics seem to be a greater determinant of the short term direction of the market.

You just need to look at past statistics.

There were more up days then down days.

Shorting = gambling. Little chance of down event to happen but the win can be big.

 

[Mecisteus]

Wait till you get caught in the long bear market from 1998-2005.
Those like you become "long-term" investors because stuck!
DCA long-term people probably mostly give up by 2003 after 5 down years!

1) DCA means Dollar Cost Averaging. So if you pick this method, you should expect average returns.

2) People who DCA are those with extra money to invest on a monthly basis. ie from $100 to $5000 to save/invest per month AND this group of people don't mind about (1).

3) Those who are discipline enough would have generated decent returns on their investments post 2005.

 

[revhappy]

1) DCA means Dollar Cost Averaging. So if you pick this method, you should expect average returns.

2) People who DCA are those with extra money to invest on a monthly basis. ie from $100 to $5000 to save/invest per month AND this group of people don't mind about (1).

3) Those who are discipline enough would have generated decent returns on their investments post 2005.

This is generally true, except that, in current times, markets are manipulated by central banks and Trump Admin and there is no tolerance for even a 5% drawdown. We are told that equities are for 10 years and not for short term. But if see the markets last 10 years we don't have even 2 continuous down years. This is not natural, it is manipulated, which is why we don't want to play.

 

[NewInvestor]

This is generally true, except that, in current times, markets are manipulated by central banks and Trump Admin and there is no tolerance for even a 5% drawdown. We are told that equities are for 10 years and not for short term. But if see the markets last 10 years we don't have even 2 continuous down years. This is not natural, it is manipulated, which is why we don't want to play.

Yes that's true. It is being manipulated for political reasons.

 

[Mecisteus]

This is generally true, except that, in current times, markets are manipulated by central banks and Trump Admin and there is no tolerance for even a 5% drawdown. We are told that equities are for 10 years and not for short term. But if see the markets last 10 years we don't have even 2 continuous down years. This is not natural, it is manipulated, which is why we don't want to play.

In the long run, fundamentals must support the rise. ie PE, cash, etc.

 

[Mecisteus]

Indeed. DCA now is as good as buying near the peak for a long time.

Maybe you can tell us when is a good time to lumpsum in stocks?

Assuming I have a pile cash.

 

[revhappy]

Maybe you can tell us when is a good time to lumpsum in stocks?

Assuming I have a pile cash.

It depends on how old are you and what your outlook on your career is etc.

If you are still in 20s or early 30s, you have time to recover from a crash.

If you are late 30s and early 40s and if your best earning years are behind you then and you have accumulated a lot of cash, then why risk it at all?

The argument is that inflation will eat into your purchasing power. True, but you can mitigate this by saving more and by continuing to work as long as possible.

 

[Mecisteus]

It depends on how old are you and what your outlook on your career is etc.

If you are still in 20s or early 30s, you have time to recover from a crash.

If you are late 30s and early 40s and if your best earning years are behind you then and you have accumulated a lot of cash, then why risk it at all?

The argument is that inflation will eat into your purchasing power. True, but you can mitigate this by saving more and by continuing to work as long as possible.

I'm not sure why age is a determinant.

Someone has a pile of cash which doesn't need to be touch for the next 20 years.

What do you suggest?

 

[revhappy]

I'm not sure why age is a determinant.

Someone has a pile of cash which doesn't need to be touch for the next 20 years.

What do you suggest?

Yes you can go ahead and invest in the markets, then.

 

[Mecisteus]

I guess this thread will die off for awhile because the bulls have taken control.

 

[revhappy]

I guess this thread will die off for awhile because the bulls have taken control.

I agree. This is really insane. We got all the bad news possible and more and it was the perfect setup for crash and yet bulls turned it around as a case for 3 or 4 rate cuts, with unemployment at record low and stocks 3% away from all time high.

Next up is to see the Q2 earnings and see how that goes.

 

[focus1974]

I agree. This is really insane. We got all the bad news possible and more and it was the perfect setup for crash and yet bulls turned it around as a case for 3 or 4 rate cuts, with unemployment at record low and stocks 3% away from all time high.

Next up is to see the Q2 earnings and see how that goes.

u r too fixed on being a bear and using every bearish news to justify why market shouldn't be moving this way.

You should just feel the market and looked at the charts more ...
the news always come later to justify the moves.

 

[andyhtc]

My take is the STI could be flat until the next major announcement from US or China.

 

[Mecisteus]

I agree. This is really insane. We got all the bad news possible and more and it was the perfect setup for crash and yet bulls turned it around as a case for 3 or 4 rate cuts, with unemployment at record low and stocks 3% away from all time high.

Next up is to see the Q2 earnings and see how that goes.

I don't know, I can't be bothered to know what's the reasons for the bull run.

All I know there will always be more good news than bad news. Thus, market will go up more times than down.

The longer term trend is up. Don't go against it.

Going against = gambling = go hell or heaven. I prefer less heaven and safer.