The bears den

[Mecisteus]

No way. I believe in the phrase, the higher they go the harder they fall. While we are in the midst of a bubble, it feels it will go on and on and on. It is only in hindsight, we will realize, it was all clear, yet people were burying their heads in sand like ostriches.

Examples; Nasdaq during the dotcom boom bust, Japanese equities and very recently the bitcoin boom and bust.

Dotcom and Nikkei busts were classic examples of overvaluations. Super high PE, low or no profits, low cash levels, etc.

US market is currently nowhere under insane overvaluation.

http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html

 

[Mecisteus]

Following US 2nite rise, DJ is just like 400 points away from its peak just 2 months ago.

Some strong stocks have already broken all time highs.

 

[Mecisteus]

Sad story for those who buy the wrong funds.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/jun/10/neil-woodford-fund-patient-capital-trust-equity-income

 

[SBC]

Tech stocks already high PE, & will become higher next year when US trade & tech war shows their effects into Co fin statements.

Tech crash is a matter of time.

Good to hear this. Will continue to acquire more VIX while it is cheap.

 

[Mecisteus]

Tech stocks already high PE, & will become higher next year when US trade & tech war shows their effects into Co fin statements.

Tech crash is a matter of time.

Tech stocks are not for the faint heart investors as it is a narrow sub sector of the S&P500. You will be rewarded if you are patient enough to buy on dips.

By the way, since you are bearish why don't we have a small bet of $100? Tell me how low the level and time frame of that bearish tech index. I will take opposite of your bet.

 

[Trader11]

I doubt they will cut rates. All Powell said was that they will be prepared to cut if job losses increase and inflation is under threat. The market somehow misunderstood it as a sure cut.

Frankly, this is the most dumbest market ever. If data really disappoints and Fed has to cut rates 3 times, then it means things are very bad for the economy and earnings. Rate cuts won't help. As seen from previous rate cut episodes, Fed was not able to prevent a market plunge. They won't be able to prevent this time either

So markets cheering rate cuts is the dumbest thing ever.

It's fine. Since you earn so much money, don't need to invest also can retire in India like a king.

 

[BBCWatcher]

Some strong stocks have already broken all time highs.

To expand on this point, stocks most probably should occasionally, repeatedly break all-time highs, if for no other reason than inflation (even if they have static real valuations).

 

[NewInvestor]

Simply amazing. My stocks/REITs portfolio is now back to its all time high. It is like the trade war hoopla from 4 weeks ago never happened.

 

[BBCWatcher]

Since you earn so much money, don't need to invest also can retire in India like a king.

I don't think the standard to judge whether you're investing prudently ought to be whether you can afford to retire in a particular country where the cost of living is comparatively, currently low. That's a low bar -- too low, I'd say.

A slightly higher bar is whether you can afford to retire in any of several countries with average (or at least second quintile) costs of living, and consistent with immigration considerations. Several countries are open at least in principle to retirees meeting or exceeding particular wealth and income profiles. That seems like a more reasonable standard to apply, at least as an aspiration. It's possible that a particular country, or even a couple, can go pear shaped at the wrong time.

 

[[M]aiev]

Tech stocks are not for the faint heart investors as it is a narrow sub sector of the S&P500. You will be rewarded if you are patient enough to buy on dips.

By the way, since you are bearish why don't we have a small bet of $100? Tell me how low the level and time frame of that bearish tech index. I will take opposite of your bet.

Obviously he is talking rubbish. Who the fk use P/E as a sole indicator for tech sector lol.

I doubt there will be financial crisis anytime soon like 2008(in fact it was economic depression).

On top of that, stocks do give better return than properties.

 

[revhappy]

I wonder what the new normal in the future is going to look like. Developed world will have 0% interest rates as normal. Central banks cut rates to negative to stimulate and then raise rates to 0 to get back to normal.

What about inflation? Well there won't be any inflation in the world. Its always going to be flat which is why central banks are keeping rates at zero right?

So in this scenario when there is no inflation, why not keep money in cash? Why do you need stocks?

 

[eD1s0n]

I wonder what the new normal in the future is going to look like. Developed world will have 0% interest rates as normal. Central banks cut rates to negative to stimulate and then raise rates to 0 to get back to normal.

What about inflation? Well there won't be any inflation in the world. Its always going to be flat which is why central banks are keeping rates at zero right?

So in this scenario when there is no inflation, why not keep money in cash? Why do you need stocks?

if you can save enough for your retirement spending, sure why not.

 

[Mecisteus]

I wonder what the new normal in the future is going to look like. Developed world will have 0% interest rates as normal. Central banks cut rates to negative to stimulate and then raise rates to 0 to get back to normal.

What about inflation? Well there won't be any inflation in the world. Its always going to be flat which is why central banks are keeping rates at zero right?

So in this scenario when there is no inflation, why not keep money in cash? Why do you need stocks?

Because wise people won't consider putting 100% in cash earning pathetic interests.

If their networth is 1M, putting 20k into stocks is still better than $0 in stocks.

 

[Mecisteus]

OMG. My account just burst through the roof.

3/6 stocks already at all time high.

 

[[M]aiev]

When many people are bearish at the market, the market dun just simply happen like that

 

[Mecisteus]

When many people are bearish at the market, the market dun just simply happen like that

The real correction will happen when the bearish zerohedge followers start to buy stocks.

 

[revhappy]

Because wise people won't consider putting 100% in cash earning pathetic interests.

If their networth is 1M, putting 20k into stocks is still better than $0 in stocks.

Yeah, I am talking about the average man on the street. Not everyone has the ability to invest in stocks. Even the govt, for example, doesn't encourage to put CPF into stocks. So, stocks as a retirement vehicle is a niche and not mainstream.

 

[Dividends Warrior]

I wonder what the new normal in the future is going to look like. Developed world will have 0% interest rates as normal. Central banks cut rates to negative to stimulate and then raise rates to 0 to get back to normal.

0% interest rate is exactly the reason why people hunt for yield desperately.
In fact, investors dun even need the rate to be zero. Just the mere hint of a rate cut has already sent them piling into yield investments like REITs.

 

[Dividends Warrior]

So in this scenario when there is no inflation, why not keep money in cash?

No inflation is different from deflation.
The nightmare scenario would be developed nations ending up like Japan, who faced deflation for years. Lots of people there actually keep their cash under their beds instead of depositing in the banks. A deflationary environment tend to cause people to hog cash.
That's why central banks around the world are desperately trying to drum up inflation. US Fed has struggled to hit their 2% target.

 

[Mecisteus]

Yeah, I am talking about the average man on the street. Not everyone has the ability to invest in stocks. Even the govt, for example, doesn't encourage to put CPF into stocks. So, stocks as a retirement vehicle is a niche and not mainstream.

Lets not talk about the average man on the street who are not informed or don't have the means.

Lets talk about people in this forum.

The government is right. It is not recommended to use CPF to buy stocks.