The bears den

[Shortthemkt]

U.S Futures are selling off now

Still looks weak @ 2878.25

 

[DukeCS33]

Irrational in a sense that there was a weaker than expected jobs data released last week yet the mkt kept charging higher.

I think no one can ever get the cycle right. As retail traders, we just cut loss if we are wrong, and we will be wrong.

That look to me like it is a normal reaction. The Market has been speculating if the Fed may cut following inversion in parts of the yield curve and slowing economics. The one reason that the Fed relied upon to stay their hand is employment. So if employment crumbles, the Fed may not have reason not to cut rates... and rate cuts injects liquidity to the Markets as well as enhance discounting of cash flows which justifies higher valuation. So an immediate reaction may be stocks rallying and I do find that to be rational. So it really depends on what the market was focussing on.

 

[DukeCS33]

I am awaiting a key reversal signal in the SP to put on some new shorts in select counters and to close out an existing swing long. This run up has been very steep and appears to be stalling at 2900 with a no demand candle in the futures. The no demand candle would have been more ideal if the volume were lower, however, it has a relatively lower volume compared to prior 2 candles and would still qualify as a no demand candle in VSA language. One can also argue that the run up is not a upward channel but a rising wedge pattern in the making.... Anything can happen in today's environment which is increasingly being dictated by the politicians... so let's see.

Market attempted a rally but failed to make any headway last night. The sell off volume was rather light last night and looks more like a case of buyers backing off rather than new sellers coming into the market. We may yet see some sideways movement or a drift lower.
Catching reversal is always tricky... waiting for too long a time to go short and one loses risk reward if levels drift too far... on the other hand, the danger of preempting may see markets make a uturn and trigger one's stops. I am going to dip in with a small position or just continue to trade intraday. May keep my swing long as it was a stock in a defensive sector.

 

[churnmaster]

That movie shows how people can be blinded by greed. It is not until a crisis strikes that people really know how much of their money is at risk and how much they can get back.

Well in his case, he fudged the nos. and always showed market beating returns, which none of his investors ever questioned. I don't think they were greedy, it's just that they were not aware such a thing can also happen. He was a cheat.

 

[Dividends Warrior]

I will bet that Xi will not meet Trump in G-20 in Japan!

I sure hope so.
Drag out this trade war impasse as long as possible.

 

[DukeCS33]

I will bet that Xi will not meet Trump in G-20 in Japan!

That may dash hopes and cause a sell off.

I still think that the chances of a deal being agreed upon is now lower compared to before May. Would the Chinese make a deal under duress? Not unless they have no choice... and if you look at the measures that the Chinese Central bank and government are putting forth to stimulate the economy - tells me that they are digging in for the long haul. However, this may not necessary push the markets into bear territory - Fed cutting rates may be a game changer to check this. And between the two, Fed action would have more impact on the stock market.

 

[DukeCS33]

I sure hope so.
Drag out this trade war impasse as long as possible.

hahahaa speaking from position?

A recession may well drag your Reits portfolio lower... becareful with what you wish for.

 

[churnmaster]

hahahaa speaking from position?

A recession may well drag your Reits portfolio lower... becareful with what you wish for.

If we get a major market turmoil over the next few months, most of the market liquidity will be concentrated around large cap bluechips. Want to see what happens to the REIT portfolios at that point.

 

[Mecisteus]

Erm... Not sure how I'll answer your question as the term "long term" and "trade" are oxymoron. However in essence of your statement, it's true long term investors are less reliant on interest rate but the stock market evidently trades based on interest rate probability

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

That does not sound quite right... Long term investors have to take interest rates into account and make decisions based on the interest rate trajectory..... High interest rates may well attract the funds into fixed deposits and bonds and compete with the stock market for liquidity.

Low interest rates have fueled the stock market bull run over the last 10 years. So what happens when interest rates are on a long term trajectory higher?

As much as possible, I don't want to use their names.

Warren Buffet and Jack Bogle don't recommend the retail investors to bother about interests rates movements.

 

[NewInvestor]

Forex Factory: Fed Interest rate way too high, added to ridiculous quantitative tightening!.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/923201-fed-interest-rate-way-too-high-added-to

Lol lol lol

 

[Trader11]

Investors need to learnp

 

[coolhead]

Forex Factory: Fed Interest rate way too high, added to ridiculous quantitative tightening!.
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/923201-fed-interest-rate-way-too-high-added-to

Lol lol lol

Frankly if he wants to devalue the USD, fine by me too. Gold will rise in that case.

Sent from HMD Global TA-1004 using GAGT

 

[DukeCS33]

As much as possible, I don't want to use their names.

Warren Buffet and Jack Bogle don't recommend the retail investors to bother about interests rates movements.

In what context? I think they will be hard pressed to prove that a high interest rate trajectory would not impact stock prices. The level of interest rates underpin the basis of valuation as well as impact the liquidity that drives stock prices.

 

[Mecisteus]

In what context? I think they will be hard pressed to prove that a high interest rate trajectory would not impact stock prices. The level of interest rates underpin the basis of valuation as well as impact the liquidity that drives stock prices.

Have fun reading.

History says to ignore the Fed's interest-rate chatter

Past fads: Sideburns, bell bottoms, tie-dye, fanny packs, PDAs and MySpace.

Current fads: Selfies and a fascination with interest rates.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/history-says-to-ignore-the-feds-interest-rate-chatter-2015-06-17

 

[NewInvestor]

In what context? I think they will be hard pressed to prove that a high interest rate trajectory would not impact stock prices. The level of interest rates underpin the basis of valuation as well as impact the liquidity that drives stock prices.

https://youtu.be/KIslBZxp5zQ

Buffett said interest rates affect stock prices

 

[Trader11]

Every time there is market correction, some bears who start to spread fear about black Swan sh.it

If you look at market history, it's normal to see market correction every year.

 

[DukeCS33]

Every time there is market correction, some bears who start to spread fear about black Swan sh.it

If you look at market history, it's normal to see market correction every year.

Black swan is different from economic slowdown or recession or market cycles. It would not be a black swan if you can see it coming.

 

[Dividends Warrior]

Social unrest in Hong Kong

 

[NewInvestor]

Bloomberg: A Singapore Hedge Fund Is Shorting Apple As It Braces for a Full-Out ‘Economic War’.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...utm_medium=bd&utm_campaign=Tech&cmpId=GP.Tech

 

[revhappy]

For the bullish scenario to play out, you need everything to go well.
No escalation in trade war
No real war
No global slowdown
No end of cycle
Trump doesnt do something crazy
No leveraged loans blowup
etc
etc


For the bearish scenario to play out, you need just one accident somewhere. One thing to blowup somewhere.

Every year that we add to this expansion, the probability of a blowup increases. Market thinks Fed can cut rates at will and extend the expansion, without placing any chance that it has some side effects somewhere, which we cannot see now.

So bulls looking at rear view mirror and saying how awesome it has been, forget this, that the odds are getting extremely tilted towards the bearish scenario as time passes.